# AFL Round 5 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 5 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 5 at a glance
- 9 matches · 20W–16L on 36 settled picks (56% strike rate) · best value +39.6% edge

## Round 5 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows v Carlton | Adelaide Crows @ $1.13 | Adelaide Crows 61% | WON |
| Collingwood v Fremantle | Collingwood @ $2.67 | Collingwood 63% | LOST |
| North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.13 | Brisbane Lions 61% | WON |
| Essendon v Melbourne | Melbourne @ $1.26 | Melbourne 57% | LOST |
| Sydney Swans v Gold Coast SUNS | Sydney Swans @ $1.75 | Sydney Swans 55% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs | Hawthorn @ $1.69 | Hawthorn 62% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v West Coast Eagles | Geelong Cats @ $1.10 | Geelong Cats 69% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Richmond | GWS GIANTS @ $1.13 | GWS GIANTS 50% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v St Kilda | Port Adelaide @ $2.35 | Port Adelaide 61% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Adelaide Crows v Carlton
Thu, 09 Apr, 07:40 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 61.4% / Carlton 38.6%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.13 (edge -27.1%) — model probability 61.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +33.5 @ $1.90 (edge +23.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 11 · Predicted total: 140
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-adelaide-crows-v-carlton

### Collingwood v Fremantle
Fri, 10 Apr, 07:40 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 62.8% / Fremantle 37.2%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.67 (edge +25.4%) — model probability 62.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +17.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 5 · Predicted total: 138
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-collingwood-v-fremantle

### North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 11 Apr, 12:35 pm AEST · Barossa Park · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 38.7% / Brisbane Lions 61.3%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.13 (edge -27.2%) — model probability 61.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +38.5 @ $1.89 (edge +39.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 192.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 1 · Predicted total: 134
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-north-melbourne-v-brisbane-lions

### Essendon v Melbourne
Sat, 11 Apr, 01:15 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 42.9% / Melbourne 57.1%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.26 (edge -22.2%) — model probability 57.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +25.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 0 · Predicted total: 137
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-essendon-v-melbourne

### Sydney Swans v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat, 11 Apr, 04:15 pm AEST · Norwood Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 54.9% / Gold Coast SUNS 45.1%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.75 (edge -2.2%) — model probability 54.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +4.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 191.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 2 · Predicted total: 132
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-sydney-swans-v-gold-coast-suns

### Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Sat, 11 Apr, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 61.7% / Western Bulldogs 38.3%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.69 (edge +2.5%) — model probability 61.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -5.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 10 · Predicted total: 145
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-hawthorn-v-western-bulldogs

### Geelong Cats v West Coast Eagles
Sun, 12 Apr, 12:30 pm AEST · Norwood Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 69.0% / West Coast Eagles 31.0%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.10 (edge -21.9%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +47.5 @ $1.89 (edge +31.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 194.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 16 · Predicted total: 134
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-geelong-cats-v-west-coast-eagles

### GWS GIANTS v Richmond
Sun, 12 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST · Barossa Park · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 50.1% / Richmond 49.9%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.13 (edge -38.4%) — model probability 50.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +22.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.85 (edge +90.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 15 · Predicted total: 132
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-gws-giants-v-richmond

### Port Adelaide v St Kilda
Sun, 12 Apr, 07:15 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 61.2% / St Kilda 38.8%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $2.35 (edge +18.6%) — model probability 61.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +8.5 @ $1.90 (edge +24.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 16 · Predicted total: 139
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r5-port-adelaide-v-st-kilda

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 57.6% | 83/144 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.6% | 80/144 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 36.8% | 53/144 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.4% | 74/144 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/4 (markdown: /afl/round/4.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/6 (markdown: /afl/round/6.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/5
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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-07 19:47 UTC