# AFL Round 4 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 4 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 4 at a glance
- 8 matches · 14W–18L on 32 settled picks (44% strike rate) · best value +31.8% edge

## Round 4 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions v Collingwood | Brisbane Lions @ $1.38 | Brisbane Lions 56% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Carlton | North Melbourne @ $2.31 | North Melbourne 52% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.84 | Fremantle 51% | WON |
| Richmond v Port Adelaide | Richmond @ $2.71 | Richmond 56% | LOST |
| West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans | West Coast Eagles @ $5.10 | West Coast Eagles 51% | LOST |
| Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.32 | Gold Coast SUNS 53% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v Essendon | Western Bulldogs @ $1.00 | Western Bulldogs 62% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Geelong Cats | Hawthorn @ $1.61 | Hawthorn 61% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Brisbane Lions v Collingwood
Thu, 02 Apr, 07:30 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 55.8% / Collingwood 44.2%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.38 (edge -16.7%) — model probability 55.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +17.5 @ $1.90 (edge -16.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 3 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r4-brisbane-lions-v-collingwood

### North Melbourne v Carlton
Fri, 03 Apr, 03:15 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 52.2% / Carlton 47.8%
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $2.31 (edge +8.9%) — model probability 52.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 180.5 @ $1.93 (edge +3.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 7 · Predicted total: 187
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r4-north-melbourne-v-carlton

### Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Fri, 03 Apr, 07:15 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 48.8% / Fremantle 51.2%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.84 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +1.5 @ $1.89 (edge -3.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.93 (edge +3.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 1 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r4-adelaide-crows-v-fremantle

### Richmond v Port Adelaide
Sat, 04 Apr, 04:15 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 56.0% / Port Adelaide 44.0%
- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $2.71 (edge +19.1%) — model probability 56.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 12 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r4-richmond-v-port-adelaide

### West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans
Sat, 04 Apr, 07:35 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 51.4% / Sydney Swans 48.6%
- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $5.10 (edge +31.8%) — model probability 51.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +32.5 @ $1.90 (edge +31.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 12 · Predicted total: 180
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r4-west-coast-eagles-v-sydney-swans

### Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun, 05 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 46.8% / Gold Coast SUNS 53.2%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.32 (edge -22.5%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +22.5 @ $1.92 (edge -22.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 190.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 2 · Predicted total: 179
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r4-melbourne-v-gold-coast-suns

### Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Sun, 05 Apr, 07:20 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 61.9% / Essendon 38.1%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.00 (edge -37.6%) — model probability 61.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -74.5 @ $1.90 (edge -37.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 191.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 13 · Predicted total: 192
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r4-western-bulldogs-v-essendon

### Hawthorn v Geelong Cats
Mon, 06 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 60.8% / Geelong Cats 39.2%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.61 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -8.5 @ $1.90 (edge -1.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 12 · Predicted total: 137
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r4-hawthorn-v-geelong-cats

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 56.4% | 79/140 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.7% | 78/140 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 36.4% | 51/140 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.4% | 72/140 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/3 (markdown: /afl/round/3.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/5 (markdown: /afl/round/5.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/4
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC