# AFL Preliminary Finals 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Preliminary Finals of the 2026 season — 2 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Preliminary Finals at a glance
- 2 matches

## Preliminary Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans v Fremantle | — | Sydney Swans 50% | — |
| Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions | — | Hawthorn 50% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Sydney Swans v Fremantle
Fri, 18 Sept, 07:40 pm AEST · SCG · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 50.0% / Fremantle 50.0%

### Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 19 Sept, 05:15 pm AEST · MCG · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 50.0% / Brisbane Lions 50.0%

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.7% | 139/215 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 57.2% | 123/215 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.5% | 87/215 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 48.4% | 104/215 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/27 (markdown: /afl/round/27.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/28
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-17 04:15 UTC