# AFL Qualifying & Elimination Finals 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Qualifying & Elimination Finals of the 2026 season — 4 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Qualifying & Elimination Finals at a glance
- 4 matches · 7W–9L on 16 settled picks (44% strike rate) · best value +36.3% edge

## Qualifying & Elimination Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle v Hawthorn | Fremantle @ $1.43 | Fremantle 67% | LOST |
| Geelong Cats v Carlton | Geelong Cats @ $1.57 | Geelong Cats 53% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans @ $3.63 | Sydney Swans 61% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs | Adelaide Crows @ $1.40 | Adelaide Crows 69% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu, 03 Sept, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 66.6% / Hawthorn 33.4%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.43 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 66.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -14.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 16 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-fremantle-v-hawthorn

### Geelong Cats v Carlton
Fri, 04 Sept, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 53.4% / Carlton 46.6%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.57 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 3 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-geelong-cats-v-carlton

### Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 05 Sept, 03:15 pm AEST · SCG · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 61.0% / Brisbane Lions 39.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $3.63 (edge +33.5%) — model probability 61.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +24.5 @ $1.90 (edge +36.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 12 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-sydney-swans-v-brisbane-lions

### Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Sat, 05 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 69.4% / Western Bulldogs 30.6%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.40 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -16.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 21 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-adelaide-crows-v-western-bulldogs

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.3% | 137/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 57.7% | 123/213 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.4% | 86/213 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 48.8% | 104/213 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/25 (markdown: /afl/round/25.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/27 (markdown: /afl/round/27.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-05 12:14 UTC (latest tip update)