# AFL Round 24 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 24 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 24 at a glance
- 9 matches · 18W–18L on 36 settled picks (50% strike rate) · best value +39.3% edge

## Round 24 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS | St Kilda @ $1.45 | St Kilda 66% | LOST |
| Collingwood v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.31 | Brisbane Lions 52% | WON |
| Carlton v Fremantle | Carlton @ $2.41 | Carlton 53% | WON |
| Melbourne v Western Bulldogs | Melbourne @ $1.42 | Melbourne 65% | LOST |
| Geelong Cats v Richmond | Geelong Cats @ $1.02 | Geelong Cats 94% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS | Adelaide Crows @ $1.25 | Adelaide Crows 66% | WON |
| Essendon v Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide @ $1.66 | Port Adelaide 82% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v North Melbourne | Sydney Swans @ $2.10 | Sydney Swans 83% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn | Hawthorn @ $1.06 | Hawthorn 88% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS
Thu, 20 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 66.0% / Gold Coast SUNS 34.0%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.45 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 66.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 12 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-st-kilda-v-gold-coast-suns

### Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
Fri, 21 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 47.7% / Brisbane Lions 52.3%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.31 (edge -24.0%) — model probability 52.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +23.5 @ $1.89 (edge +21.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 2 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-collingwood-v-brisbane-lions

### Carlton v Fremantle
Sat, 22 Aug, 01:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 52.6% / Fremantle 47.4%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $2.41 (edge +11.1%) — model probability 52.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 2 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-carlton-v-fremantle

### Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat, 22 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 65.4% / Western Bulldogs 34.6%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.42 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 65.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +16.5 @ $1.89 (edge +4.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 12 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-melbourne-v-western-bulldogs

### Geelong Cats v Richmond
Sat, 22 Aug, 07:45 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 94.0% / Richmond 6.0%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.02 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 94.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -60.5 @ $1.90 (edge +5.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 66 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-geelong-cats-v-richmond

### Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS
Sat, 22 Aug, 08:10 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 66.3% / GWS GIANTS 33.7%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.25 (edge -13.7%) — model probability 66.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +25.5 @ $1.89 (edge +7.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 18 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-adelaide-crows-v-gws-giants

### Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun, 23 Aug, 12:20 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 18.2% / Port Adelaide 81.8%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.66 (edge +21.6%) — model probability 81.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -6.5 @ $1.90 (edge +29.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 36 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-essendon-v-port-adelaide

### Sydney Swans v North Melbourne
Sun, 23 Aug, 03:20 pm AEST · SCG · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 83.2% / North Melbourne 16.8%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.10 (edge +35.6%) — model probability 83.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +39.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 36 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-sydney-swans-v-north-melbourne

### West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn
Sun, 23 Aug, 07:20 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 12.5% / Hawthorn 87.5%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.06 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 87.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -46.5 @ $1.90 (edge +5.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 52 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r24-west-coast-eagles-v-hawthorn

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.3% | 137/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 57.7% | 123/213 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.4% | 86/213 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 48.8% | 104/213 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/23 (markdown: /afl/round/23.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/25 (markdown: /afl/round/25.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/24
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-23 12:08 UTC (latest tip update)