# AFL Round 22 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 22 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 22 at a glance
- 9 matches · 19W–17L on 36 settled picks (53% strike rate) · best value +21.8% edge

## Round 22 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne | Western Bulldogs @ $1.32 | Western Bulldogs 67% | LOST |
| Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions @ $1.68 | Brisbane Lions 58% | WON |
| Melbourne v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.55 | Fremantle 55% | LOST |
| Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide | Sydney Swans @ $1.12 | Sydney Swans 87% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Essendon | Geelong Cats @ $1.01 | Geelong Cats 94% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Richmond | Adelaide Crows @ $1.02 | Adelaide Crows 91% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS | GWS GIANTS @ $1.34 | GWS GIANTS 83% | LOST |
| West Coast Eagles v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $1.58 | Collingwood 79% | WON |
| St Kilda v Carlton | Carlton @ $1.65 | Carlton 55% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Thu, 06 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 66.9% / North Melbourne 33.1%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.32 (edge -8.8%) — model probability 66.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +20.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 14 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-western-bulldogs-v-north-melbourne

### Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Fri, 07 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 58.2% / Hawthorn 41.8%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.68 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 58.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -5.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn

### Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat, 08 Aug, 01:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 44.9% / Fremantle 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.55 (edge -9.4%) — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +10.5 @ $1.89 (edge +4.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 6 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-melbourne-v-fremantle

### Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Sat, 08 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST · SCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 87.5% / Port Adelaide 12.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.12 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 87.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -37.5 @ $1.89 (edge +7.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 45 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-sydney-swans-v-port-adelaide

### Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sat, 08 Aug, 04:35 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 93.7% / Essendon 6.3%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.01 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 93.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +64.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 63 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-geelong-cats-v-essendon

### Adelaide Crows v Richmond
Sat, 08 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 91.1% / Richmond 8.9%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.02 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 91.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -55.5 @ $1.90 (edge +20.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 157.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 56 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-adelaide-crows-v-richmond

### GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun, 09 Aug, 01:10 pm AEST · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 82.7% / Gold Coast SUNS 17.3%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.34 (edge +8.1%) — model probability 82.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -17.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 146.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 29 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-gws-giants-v-gold-coast-suns

### West Coast Eagles v Collingwood
Sun, 09 Aug, 04:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 20.8% / Collingwood 79.2%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.58 (edge +15.9%) — model probability 79.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -9.5 @ $1.92 (edge +21.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 31 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-west-coast-eagles-v-collingwood

### St Kilda v Carlton
Sun, 09 Aug, 07:20 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 44.9% / Carlton 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.65 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -6.5 @ $1.89 (edge +3.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 10 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-st-kilda-v-carlton

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 62.4% | 118/189 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 56.6% | 107/189 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.2% | 76/189 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.3% | 97/189 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/21 (markdown: /afl/round/21.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/23 (markdown: /afl/round/23.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-08-09 12:01 UTC (latest tip update)