# AFL Round 22 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 22 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 22 at a glance
- 9 matches

## Round 22 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne | — | Western Bulldogs 50% | — |
| Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn | — | Brisbane Lions 50% | — |
| Melbourne v Fremantle | — | Melbourne 50% | — |
| Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide | — | Sydney Swans 50% | — |
| Geelong Cats v Essendon | — | Geelong Cats 50% | — |
| Adelaide Crows v Richmond | — | Adelaide Crows 50% | — |
| GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS | — | GWS GIANTS 50% | — |
| West Coast Eagles v Collingwood | — | West Coast Eagles 50% | — |
| St Kilda v Carlton | — | St Kilda 50% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Thu, 06 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 50.0% / North Melbourne 50.0%

### Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Fri, 07 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 50.0% / Hawthorn 50.0%

### Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat, 08 Aug, 01:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 50.0% / Fremantle 50.0%

### Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Sat, 08 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST · SCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 50.0% / Port Adelaide 50.0%

### Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sat, 08 Aug, 04:35 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 50.0% / Essendon 50.0%

### Adelaide Crows v Richmond
Sat, 08 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 50.0% / Richmond 50.0%

### GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun, 09 Aug, 01:10 pm AEST · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 50.0% / Gold Coast SUNS 50.0%

### West Coast Eagles v Collingwood
Sun, 09 Aug, 04:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 50.0% / Collingwood 50.0%

### St Kilda v Carlton
Sun, 09 Aug, 07:20 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 50.0% / Carlton 50.0%

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 62.2% | 112/180 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 56.1% | 101/180 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.6% | 73/180 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.7% | 93/180 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/21 (markdown: /afl/round/21.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-05 05:07 UTC