# AFL Round 21 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 21 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 21 at a glance
- 9 matches · 23W–13L on 36 settled picks (64% strike rate) · best value +13.2% edge

## Round 21 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.71 | Geelong Cats 53% | WON |
| Fremantle v Western Bulldogs | Fremantle @ $1.11 | Fremantle 85% | WON |
| St Kilda v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $1.50 | Sydney Swans 67% | WON |
| Hawthorn v North Melbourne | Hawthorn @ $1.11 | Hawthorn 83% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS | GWS GIANTS @ $2.18 | GWS GIANTS 58% | WON |
| Carlton v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.26 | Brisbane Lions 66% | LOST |
| Richmond v West Coast Eagles | Richmond @ $2.04 | Richmond 60% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne | Melbourne @ $1.58 | Melbourne 66% | WON |
| Essendon v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.08 | Adelaide Crows 88% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Thu, 30 July, 07:30 pm AEST · MCG · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 47.2% / Geelong Cats 52.8%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.71 (edge -5.7%) — model probability 52.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 1 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-collingwood-v-geelong-cats

### Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Fri, 31 July, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 84.8% / Western Bulldogs 15.2%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.11 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 84.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 35 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-fremantle-v-western-bulldogs

### St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Sat, 01 Aug, 01:05 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 33.3% / Sydney Swans 66.7%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.50 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 66.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +13.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 11 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-st-kilda-v-sydney-swans

### Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Sat, 01 Aug, 01:35 pm AEST · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 83.5% / North Melbourne 16.5%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.11 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 83.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +39.5 @ $1.89 (edge +4.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 36 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-hawthorn-v-north-melbourne

### Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS
Sat, 01 Aug, 06:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 41.6% / GWS GIANTS 58.4%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.18 (edge +12.5%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +5.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 8 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-port-adelaide-v-gws-giants

### Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 01 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 34.3% / Brisbane Lions 65.7%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.26 (edge -13.6%) — model probability 65.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +25.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 18 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-carlton-v-brisbane-lions

### Richmond v West Coast Eagles
Sun, 02 Aug, 01:10 pm AEST · MCG · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 60.2% / West Coast Eagles 39.8%
- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $2.04 (edge +11.2%) — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +8.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 6 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-richmond-v-west-coast-eagles

### Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sun, 02 Aug, 03:15 pm AEST · People First Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 33.8% / Melbourne 66.2%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.58 (edge +2.9%) — model probability 66.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 5 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-gold-coast-suns-v-melbourne

### Essendon v Adelaide Crows
Sun, 02 Aug, 04:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 12.0% / Adelaide Crows 88.0%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.08 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 88.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +41.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 39 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-essendon-v-adelaide-crows

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.7% | 139/215 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 57.2% | 123/215 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.5% | 87/215 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 48.4% | 104/215 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/20 (markdown: /afl/round/20.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/22 (markdown: /afl/round/22.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-08-02 09:23 UTC (latest tip update)