# AFL Round 21 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 21 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 21 at a glance
- 9 matches

## Round 21 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood v Geelong Cats | — | Collingwood 50% | — |
| Fremantle v Western Bulldogs | — | Fremantle 50% | — |
| St Kilda v Sydney Swans | — | St Kilda 50% | — |
| Hawthorn v North Melbourne | — | Hawthorn 50% | — |
| Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS | — | Port Adelaide 50% | — |
| Carlton v Brisbane Lions | — | Carlton 50% | — |
| Richmond v West Coast Eagles | — | Richmond 50% | — |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne | — | Gold Coast SUNS 50% | — |
| Essendon v Adelaide Crows | — | Essendon 50% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Thu, 30 July, 07:30 pm AEST · MCG · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 50.0% / Geelong Cats 50.0%

### Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Fri, 31 July, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 50.0% / Western Bulldogs 50.0%

### St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Sat, 01 Aug, 01:05 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 50.0% / Sydney Swans 50.0%

### Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Sat, 01 Aug, 01:35 pm AEST · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 50.0% / North Melbourne 50.0%

### Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS
Sat, 01 Aug, 06:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 50.0% / GWS GIANTS 50.0%

### Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 01 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 50.0% / Brisbane Lions 50.0%

### Richmond v West Coast Eagles
Sun, 02 Aug, 01:10 pm AEST · MCG · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 50.0% / West Coast Eagles 50.0%

### Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sun, 02 Aug, 03:15 pm AEST · People First Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 50.0% / Melbourne 50.0%

### Essendon v Adelaide Crows
Sun, 02 Aug, 04:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 50.0% / Adelaide Crows 50.0%

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 60.8% | 104/171 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.6% | 95/171 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 38.6% | 66/171 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.2% | 91/171 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/20 (markdown: /afl/round/20.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-26 13:25 UTC