# AFL Round 20 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 20 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 20 at a glance
- 9 matches · 23W–13L on 36 settled picks (64% strike rate) · best value +22.0% edge

## Round 20 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $2.84 | Collingwood 57% | WON |
| Melbourne v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $2.00 | Geelong Cats 60% | WON |
| Fremantle v West Coast Eagles | Fremantle @ $1.06 | Fremantle 91% | WON |
| Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS | Carlton @ $1.64 | Carlton 59% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Essendon | Hawthorn @ $1.03 | Hawthorn 89% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Sydney Swans | GWS GIANTS @ $2.41 | GWS GIANTS 59% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v Richmond | Western Bulldogs @ $1.08 | Western Bulldogs 75% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide | Brisbane Lions @ $1.13 | Brisbane Lions 72% | WON |
| North Melbourne v St Kilda | St Kilda @ $1.50 | St Kilda 67% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Thu, 23 July, 07:30 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 42.8% / Collingwood 57.2%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.84 (edge +22.0%) — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.85 (edge +90.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 1 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-adelaide-crows-v-collingwood

### Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Fri, 24 July, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 39.6% / Geelong Cats 60.4%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $2.00 (edge +10.4%) — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +1.5 @ $1.90 (edge +9.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 8 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-melbourne-v-geelong-cats

### Fremantle v West Coast Eagles
Fri, 24 July, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 91.1% / West Coast Eagles 8.9%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.06 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 91.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -43.5 @ $1.89 (edge +12.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 56 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-fremantle-v-west-coast-eagles

### Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat, 25 July, 01:05 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 59.1% / Gold Coast SUNS 40.9%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.64 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 59.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -6.5 @ $1.89 (edge +40.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 7 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-carlton-v-gold-coast-suns

### Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat, 25 July, 04:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 89.3% / Essendon 10.7%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.03 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 89.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +53.5 @ $1.90 (edge +9.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 44 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-hawthorn-v-essendon

### GWS GIANTS v Sydney Swans
Sat, 25 July, 04:35 pm AEST · ENGIE Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 58.6% / Sydney Swans 41.4%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.41 (edge +17.1%) — model probability 58.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +18.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 9 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-gws-giants-v-sydney-swans

### Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat, 25 July, 07:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 75.3% / Richmond 24.7%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.08 (edge -17.2%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +41.5 @ $1.92 (edge +9.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 32 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-western-bulldogs-v-richmond

### Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Sun, 26 July, 01:10 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 72.3% / Port Adelaide 27.7%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.13 (edge -16.2%) — model probability 72.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 16 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-brisbane-lions-v-port-adelaide

### North Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun, 26 July, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 33.2% / St Kilda 66.8%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.50 (edge +20.0%) — model probability 66.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 17 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-north-melbourne-v-st-kilda

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 62.4% | 118/189 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 56.6% | 107/189 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.2% | 76/189 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.3% | 97/189 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/19 (markdown: /afl/round/19.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/21 (markdown: /afl/round/21.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/20
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-26 08:01 UTC (latest tip update)