# AFL Round 16 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 16 of the 2026 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 16 at a glance
- 7 matches · 14W–14L on 28 settled picks (50% strike rate) · best value +32.7% edge

## Round 16 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans | Brisbane Lions @ $2.04 | Brisbane Lions 73% | WON |
| Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS | Hawthorn @ $1.35 | Hawthorn 65% | WON |
| Carlton v West Coast Eagles | Carlton @ $1.14 | Carlton 71% | WON |
| Collingwood v Richmond | Collingwood @ $1.11 | Collingwood 70% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.27 | Adelaide Crows 90% | LOST |
| North Melbourne v Essendon | North Melbourne @ $1.45 | North Melbourne 77% | WON |
| Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $4.60 | Gold Coast SUNS 54% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Thu, 25 June, 07:30 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 72.8% / Sydney Swans 27.2%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.04 (edge +23.8%) — model probability 72.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 23 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-brisbane-lions-v-sydney-swans

### Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS
Fri, 26 June, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 65.1% / GWS GIANTS 34.9%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.35 (edge -9.0%) — model probability 65.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +19.5 @ $1.89 (edge +15.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 4
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-hawthorn-v-gws-giants

### Carlton v West Coast Eagles
Sat, 27 June, 01:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 70.5% / West Coast Eagles 29.4%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.14 (edge -17.2%) — model probability 70.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +33.5 @ $1.90 (edge +24.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 9
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-carlton-v-west-coast-eagles

### Collingwood v Richmond
Sat, 27 June, 04:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 69.6% / Richmond 30.4%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.11 (edge -20.5%) — model probability 69.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +19.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 18
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-collingwood-v-richmond

### Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat, 27 June, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 9.9% / Adelaide Crows 90.1%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.27 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 90.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -22.5 @ $1.90 (edge +12.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 164.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 35
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-port-adelaide-v-adelaide-crows

### North Melbourne v Essendon
Sun, 28 June, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 77.3% / Essendon 22.7%
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $1.45 (edge +8.3%) — model probability 77.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +14.5 @ $1.89 (edge +50.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 14
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-north-melbourne-v-essendon

### Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun, 28 June, 05:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 45.6% / Gold Coast SUNS 54.4%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $4.60 (edge +32.7%) — model probability 54.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +27.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 159.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 2
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-fremantle-v-gold-coast-suns

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 59.1% | 91/154 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.8% | 86/154 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 36.4% | 56/154 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 52.6% | 81/154 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/15 (markdown: /afl/round/15.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/17 (markdown: /afl/round/17.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-28 09:53 UTC (latest tip update)