# AFL Round 14 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 14 of the 2026 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 14 at a glance
- 7 matches · 12W–16L on 28 settled picks (43% strike rate) · best value +46.7% edge

## Round 14 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $2.10 | Adelaide Crows 52% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $3.82 | Gold Coast SUNS 59% | LOST |
| Melbourne v Essendon | Essendon @ $4.95 | Essendon 51% | LOST |
| North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles | West Coast Eagles @ $2.46 | West Coast Eagles 52% | LOST |
| Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $1.44 | Sydney Swans 63% | WON |
| Richmond v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.08 | Brisbane Lions 71% | WON |
| St Kilda v GWS GIANTS | GWS GIANTS @ $2.10 | GWS GIANTS 59% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows
Thu, 11 June, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 47.7% / Adelaide Crows 52.3%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $2.10 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 52.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +4.5 @ $1.89 (edge +5.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 1 · Predicted total: 140
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r14-western-bulldogs-v-adelaide-crows

### Geelong Cats v Gold Coast SUNS
Fri, 12 June, 07:40 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 41.1% / Gold Coast SUNS 58.9%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $3.82 (edge +32.8%) — model probability 58.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +24.5 @ $1.89 (edge +14.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 177.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 11 · Predicted total: 182
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r14-geelong-cats-v-gold-coast-suns

### Melbourne v Essendon
Sat, 13 June, 01:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 49.2% / Essendon 50.8%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $4.95 (edge +30.6%) — model probability 50.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +28.5 @ $1.89 (edge +26.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 2 · Predicted total: 183
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r14-melbourne-v-essendon

### North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sat, 13 June, 04:15 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 47.9% / West Coast Eagles 52.1%
- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $2.46 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 52.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +12.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 2 · Predicted total: 187
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r14-north-melbourne-v-west-coast-eagles

### Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans
Sat, 13 June, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 36.8% / Sydney Swans 63.2%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.44 (edge -6.3%) — model probability 63.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +14.5 @ $1.89 (edge +10.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 4 · Predicted total: 179
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r14-port-adelaide-v-sydney-swans

### Richmond v Brisbane Lions
Sun, 14 June, 01:10 pm AEST · Ninja Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 28.7% / Brisbane Lions 71.3%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.08 (edge -21.3%) — model probability 71.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +45.5 @ $1.90 (edge +46.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 1 · Predicted total: 190
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r14-richmond-v-brisbane-lions

### St Kilda v GWS GIANTS
Sun, 14 June, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 40.5% / GWS GIANTS 59.5%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.10 (edge +11.8%) — model probability 59.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 3 · Predicted total: 183
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r14-st-kilda-v-gws-giants

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 59.5% | 97/163 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.8% | 91/163 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 37.4% | 61/163 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 54% | 88/163 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/13 (markdown: /afl/round/13.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/15 (markdown: /afl/round/15.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-14 08:11 UTC (latest tip update)