# AFL Round 13 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 13 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 13 at a glance
- 8 matches · 17W–15L on 32 settled picks (53% strike rate) · best value +43.3% edge

## Round 13 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats | Adelaide Crows @ $2.34 | Adelaide Crows 55% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs | Hawthorn @ $1.35 | Hawthorn 60% | LOST |
| North Melbourne v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.27 | Fremantle 51% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.56 | Gold Coast SUNS 53% | LOST |
| West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide @ $1.91 | Port Adelaide 54% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v St Kilda | Sydney Swans @ $1.24 | Sydney Swans 55% | WON |
| Essendon v Carlton | Carlton @ $1.18 | Carlton 53% | WON |
| Collingwood v Melbourne | Collingwood @ $1.79 | Collingwood 57% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Thu, 04 June, 07:30 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 54.5% / Geelong Cats 45.5%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $2.34 (edge +11.8%) — model probability 54.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +8.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 3 · Predicted total: 143
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r13-adelaide-crows-v-geelong-cats

### Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Fri, 05 June, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 60.1% / Western Bulldogs 39.9%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.35 (edge -14.0%) — model probability 60.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +19.5 @ $1.90 (edge +16.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 3 · Predicted total: 144
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r13-hawthorn-v-western-bulldogs

### North Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat, 06 June, 02:15 pm AEST · Hands Oval · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 48.7% / Fremantle 51.3%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.27 (edge -27.5%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 3 · Predicted total: 141
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r13-north-melbourne-v-fremantle

### Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 06 June, 05:15 pm AEST · People First Stadium · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 52.9% / Brisbane Lions 47.1%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.56 (edge -11.2%) — model probability 52.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 12 · Predicted total: 147
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r13-gold-coast-suns-v-brisbane-lions

### West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide
Sat, 06 June, 08:15 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 46.1% / Port Adelaide 53.9%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.91 (edge +1.6%) — model probability 53.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles @ $1.91 (edge +10.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 10 · Predicted total: 142
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r13-west-coast-eagles-v-port-adelaide

### Sydney Swans v St Kilda
Sun, 07 June, 03:15 pm AEST · SCG · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 55.0% / St Kilda 45.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.24 (edge -25.7%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +27.5 @ $1.90 (edge +22.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 6 · Predicted total: 148
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r13-sydney-swans-v-st-kilda

### Essendon v Carlton
Sun, 07 June, 07:20 pm AEST · MCG · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 46.5% / Carlton 53.5%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.18 (edge -31.3%) — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +30.5 @ $1.90 (edge +43.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 13 · Predicted total: 144
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r13-essendon-v-carlton

### Collingwood v Melbourne
Mon, 08 June, 03:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 13
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 57.5% / Melbourne 42.5%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.79 (edge +1.6%) — model probability 57.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -2.5 @ $1.89 (edge +3.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 6 · Predicted total: 145
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r13-collingwood-v-melbourne

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 59.7% | 95/159 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 56% | 89/159 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 37.7% | 60/159 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.5% | 85/159 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/12 (markdown: /afl/round/12.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/14 (markdown: /afl/round/14.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-08 08:17 UTC (latest tip update)