# AFL Round 12 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 12 of the 2026 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 12 at a glance
- 7 matches · 14W–14L on 28 settled picks (50% strike rate) · best value +41.3% edge

## Round 12 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda v Hawthorn | St Kilda @ $3.17 | St Kilda 56% | LOST |
| Carlton v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.25 | Geelong Cats 54% | LOST |
| Sydney Swans v Richmond | Sydney Swans @ $1.03 | Sydney Swans 67% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Fremantle | Brisbane Lions @ $1.67 | Brisbane Lions 52% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v Collingwood | Western Bulldogs @ $1.56 | Western Bulldogs 55% | WON |
| Melbourne v GWS GIANTS | Melbourne @ $1.79 | Melbourne 53% | LOST |
| West Coast Eagles v Essendon | West Coast Eagles @ $1.45 | West Coast Eagles 55% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### St Kilda v Hawthorn
Thu, 28 May, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 56.4% / Hawthorn 43.6%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $3.17 (edge +24.8%) — model probability 56.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +22.5 @ $1.80 (edge +30.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 8 · Predicted total: 141
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-st-kilda-v-hawthorn

### Carlton v Geelong Cats
Fri, 29 May, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 45.5% / Geelong Cats 54.5%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.25 (edge -25.5%) — model probability 54.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 2 · Predicted total: 142
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-carlton-v-geelong-cats

### Sydney Swans v Richmond
Sat, 30 May, 01:15 pm AEST · SCG · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 67.0% / Richmond 33.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.03 (edge -30.0%) — model probability 67.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +55.5 @ $1.90 (edge +41.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 14 · Predicted total: 150
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-sydney-swans-v-richmond

### Brisbane Lions v Fremantle
Sat, 30 May, 04:15 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 51.9% / Fremantle 48.1%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.67 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 51.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +6.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 4 · Predicted total: 144
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-brisbane-lions-v-fremantle

### Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Sat, 30 May, 07:35 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 55.1% / Collingwood 44.9%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.56 (edge -9.0%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +10.5 @ $1.89 (edge +1.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 9 · Predicted total: 139
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-western-bulldogs-v-collingwood

### Melbourne v GWS GIANTS
Sun, 31 May, 03:15 pm AEST · TIO Traeger Park · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 53.3% / GWS GIANTS 46.7%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.79 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +3.5 @ $1.89 (edge +20.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 3 · Predicted total: 145
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-melbourne-v-gws-giants

### West Coast Eagles v Essendon
Sun, 31 May, 07:20 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 12
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 55.3% / Essendon 44.7%
- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $1.45 (edge -13.6%) — model probability 55.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles -12.5 @ $1.88 (edge +5.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 150.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 18 · Predicted total: 146
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r12-west-coast-eagles-v-essendon

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 57.6% | 83/144 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.6% | 80/144 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 36.8% | 53/144 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.4% | 74/144 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/11 (markdown: /afl/round/11.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/13 (markdown: /afl/round/13.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-09 05:59 UTC