# AFL Round 11 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 11 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 11 at a glance
- 9 matches · 19W–17L on 36 settled picks (53% strike rate) · best value +38.1% edge

## Round 11 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn @ $1.45 | Hawthorn 56% | WON |
| Richmond v Essendon | Essendon @ $1.47 | Essendon 58% | LOST |
| Fremantle v St Kilda | St Kilda @ $3.78 | St Kilda 57% | LOST |
| North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.58 | Gold Coast SUNS 51% | LOST |
| Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $2.47 | Sydney Swans 61% | LOST |
| Collingwood v West Coast Eagles | Collingwood @ $1.05 | Collingwood 58% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Carlton | Port Adelaide @ $1.47 | Port Adelaide 50% | LOST |
| GWS GIANTS v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.53 | Brisbane Lions 61% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v Melbourne | Melbourne @ $1.75 | Melbourne 52% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows
Thu, 21 May, 07:30 pm AEST · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 55.5% / Adelaide Crows 44.5%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.45 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 55.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +13.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 2 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-hawthorn-v-adelaide-crows

### Richmond v Essendon
Fri, 22 May, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 42.3% / Essendon 57.7%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.47 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 57.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +13.5 @ $1.89 (edge +18.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 5 · Predicted total: 196
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-richmond-v-essendon

### Fremantle v St Kilda
Fri, 22 May, 08:30 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 43.1% / St Kilda 56.9%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $3.78 (edge +30.4%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +23.5 @ $1.89 (edge +34.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 11 · Predicted total: 166
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-fremantle-v-st-kilda

### North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat, 23 May, 01:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 48.7% / Gold Coast SUNS 51.3%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.58 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 51.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +14.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 182.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 5 · Predicted total: 184
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-north-melbourne-v-gold-coast-suns

### Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Sat, 23 May, 04:15 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 39.3% / Sydney Swans 60.7%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.47 (edge +20.2%) — model probability 60.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +11.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 189.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 1 · Predicted total: 193
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-geelong-cats-v-sydney-swans

### Collingwood v West Coast Eagles
Sat, 23 May, 04:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 58.4% / West Coast Eagles 41.6%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.05 (edge -36.8%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +38.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 9 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-collingwood-v-west-coast-eagles

### Port Adelaide v Carlton
Sat, 23 May, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 50.2% / Carlton 49.8%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.47 (edge -17.9%) — model probability 50.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +10.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 3 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-port-adelaide-v-carlton

### GWS GIANTS v Brisbane Lions
Sun, 24 May, 12:30 pm AEST · ENGIE Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 38.7% / Brisbane Lions 61.3%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.53 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 61.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 188.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 2 · Predicted total: 190
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-gws-giants-v-brisbane-lions

### Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
Sun, 24 May, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 47.6% / Melbourne 52.4%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.75 (edge -4.7%) — model probability 52.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.90 (edge +10.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 190.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 6 · Predicted total: 190
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r11-western-bulldogs-v-melbourne

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 57% | 81/142 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.6% | 79/142 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 35.9% | 51/142 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 50.7% | 72/142 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/10 (markdown: /afl/round/10.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/12 (markdown: /afl/round/12.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC