# AFL Round 10 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 10 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 10 at a glance
- 9 matches · 26W–10L on 36 settled picks (72% strike rate) · best value +34.4% edge

## Round 10 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $2.84 | Geelong Cats 51% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Collingwood | Sydney Swans @ $1.14 | Sydney Swans 59% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Port Adelaide | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.23 | Gold Coast SUNS 53% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne | Adelaide Crows @ $1.44 | Adelaide Crows 51% | WON |
| Melbourne v Hawthorn | Hawthorn @ $1.41 | Hawthorn 56% | LOST |
| Carlton v Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs @ $1.55 | Western Bulldogs 56% | LOST |
| Essendon v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.15 | Fremantle 61% | WON |
| St Kilda v Richmond | St Kilda @ $1.10 | St Kilda 65% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v GWS GIANTS | GWS GIANTS @ $1.19 | GWS GIANTS 67% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Thu, 14 May, 07:30 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 48.8% / Geelong Cats 51.2%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $2.84 (edge +16.0%) — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +15.5 @ $1.90 (edge +17.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 2 · Predicted total: 192
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-brisbane-lions-v-geelong-cats

### Sydney Swans v Collingwood
Fri, 15 May, 07:30 pm AEST · SCG · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 58.6% / Collingwood 41.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.14 (edge -29.1%) — model probability 58.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +35.5 @ $1.90 (edge +33.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 2 · Predicted total: 179
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-sydney-swans-v-collingwood

### Gold Coast SUNS v Port Adelaide
Fri, 15 May, 08:10 pm AEST · TIO Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 53.3% / Port Adelaide 46.7%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.23 (edge -28.0%) — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +26.5 @ $1.91 (edge +24.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 2 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-gold-coast-suns-v-port-adelaide

### Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne
Sat, 16 May, 01:15 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 50.7% / North Melbourne 49.3%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.44 (edge -18.7%) — model probability 50.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +15.5 @ $1.90 (edge +16.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 178.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 1 · Predicted total: 186
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-adelaide-crows-v-north-melbourne

### Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat, 16 May, 04:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 44.3% / Hawthorn 55.7%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.41 (edge -15.2%) — model probability 55.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +17.5 @ $1.89 (edge +12.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 184.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 5 · Predicted total: 192
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-melbourne-v-hawthorn

### Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat, 16 May, 07:35 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 43.5% / Western Bulldogs 56.5%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.55 (edge -8.1%) — model probability 56.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +20.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 8 · Predicted total: 184
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-carlton-v-western-bulldogs

### Essendon v Fremantle
Sun, 17 May, 01:10 pm AEST · MCG · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 39.2% / Fremantle 60.8%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.15 (edge -26.1%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +33.5 @ $1.90 (edge +31.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 2 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-essendon-v-fremantle

### St Kilda v Richmond
Sun, 17 May, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 64.6% / Richmond 35.4%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.10 (edge -26.3%) — model probability 64.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +40.5 @ $1.90 (edge +28.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 179.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 12 · Predicted total: 182
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-st-kilda-v-richmond

### West Coast Eagles v GWS GIANTS
Sun, 17 May, 06:15 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 32.7% / GWS GIANTS 67.3%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.19 (edge -16.7%) — model probability 67.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +30.5 @ $1.90 (edge +34.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 4 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r10-west-coast-eagles-v-gws-giants

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 57.1% | 76/133 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 57.1% | 76/133 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 36.1% | 48/133 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.1% | 68/133 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/9 (markdown: /afl/round/9.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/11 (markdown: /afl/round/11.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/10
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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-27 21:10 UTC