# AFL Round 1 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 1 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 1 at a glance
- 9 matches · 20W–16L on 36 settled picks (56% strike rate) · best value +52.0% edge

## Round 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton v Richmond | Carlton @ $1.33 | Carlton 50% | WON |
| Essendon v Hawthorn | Essendon @ $4.45 | Essendon 74% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v GWS GIANTS | Western Bulldogs @ $1.33 | Western Bulldogs 66% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $2.63 | Fremantle 61% | LOST |
| Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans @ $1.38 | Sydney Swans 55% | WON |
| Collingwood v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $2.12 | Adelaide Crows 67% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide @ $1.57 | Port Adelaide 64% | LOST |
| Melbourne v St Kilda | Melbourne @ $2.45 | Melbourne 87% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v West Coast Eagles | West Coast Eagles @ $21.00 | West Coast Eagles 52% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Carlton v Richmond
Thu, 12 Mar, 07:30 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 50.4% / Richmond 49.6%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.33 (edge -24.8%) — model probability 50.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +21.5 @ $1.89 (edge -24.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 3 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-carlton-v-richmond

### Essendon v Hawthorn
Fri, 13 Mar, 07:40 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 74.4% / Hawthorn 25.6%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $4.45 (edge +52.0%) — model probability 74.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +29.5 @ $1.91 (edge +52.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 34 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-essendon-v-hawthorn

### Western Bulldogs v GWS GIANTS
Sat, 14 Mar, 01:15 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 65.7% / GWS GIANTS 34.3%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.33 (edge -9.5%) — model probability 65.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +21.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 195.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 12 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-western-bulldogs-v-gws-giants

### Geelong Cats v Fremantle
Sat, 14 Mar, 04:15 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 39.4% / Fremantle 60.6%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $2.63 (edge +22.5%) — model probability 60.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +13.5 @ $1.89 (edge +22.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 6 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-geelong-cats-v-fremantle

### Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 14 Mar, 07:10 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 54.6% / Brisbane Lions 45.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.38 (edge -17.9%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +18.5 @ $1.90 (edge -17.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 188.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 5 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-sydney-swans-v-brisbane-lions

### Collingwood v Adelaide Crows
Sat, 14 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 32.8% / Adelaide Crows 67.2%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $2.12 (edge +20.0%) — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +4.5 @ $1.90 (edge +20.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 5 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-collingwood-v-adelaide-crows

### North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun, 15 Mar, 01:10 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 35.6% / Port Adelaide 64.4%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.57 (edge +70.0%) — model probability 64.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +10.5 @ $1.89 (edge +70.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 3 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-north-melbourne-v-port-adelaide

### Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun, 15 Mar, 03:15 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 87.3% / St Kilda 12.7%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $2.45 (edge +46.5%) — model probability 87.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +46.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 31 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-melbourne-v-st-kilda

### Gold Coast SUNS v West Coast Eagles
Sun, 15 Mar, 06:10 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 48.2% / West Coast Eagles 51.8%
- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $21.00 (edge +47.0%) — model probability 51.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +68.5 @ $1.89 (edge +47.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 12 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r1-gold-coast-suns-v-west-coast-eagles

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 56.4% | 79/140 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.7% | 78/140 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 36.4% | 51/140 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.4% | 72/140 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/0 (markdown: /afl/round/0.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/2 (markdown: /afl/round/2.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/1
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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC