# Fremantle v Geelong Cats — AFL Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 120 – 106 Geelong Cats

_Fremantle see off Geelong Cats._

Half time: 65 – 44 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 51% / Geelong Cats 49% · Optus Stadium · Fri, 11 Sept, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Shai Bolton (2' 1st), Patrick Voss (4' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (11' ×2), Mason Cox (24'), Jye Amiss (40' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Hayden Young (42'), Isaiah Dudley (61'), Luke Jackson (93' ×2), Josh Treacy (94' Tipped ⚡), Caleb Serong (80') · Geelong Cats: Patrick Dangerfield (6' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Oliver Wiltshire (28'), Oliver Henry (36' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (38' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (41' ×2), Jeremy Cameron (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Stewart (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 51% | Won |
| Geelong Cats | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Sept 2026, 06:55 pm · Last updated: 11 Sept 2026, 10:58 pm_

Fremantle 120–106 Geelong Cats in AFL Semi Finals at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle beat the Geelong Cats 120-106 at Optus Stadium. But the numbers show Fremantle's dominance was more pronounced than the 14-point margin suggests. They controlled the game with 364 disposals to Geelong's 327. It wasn't just about possession; it was about effective use.

The Dockers started strong, leading 38-13 at quarter time. Geelong narrowed the gap by half-time, but Fremantle kept their edge. By three-quarter time, the lead was 96-80. Fremantle's midfield and ruck division were crucial in maintaining control.

Fremantle's ruck work stood out, with 46 hit-outs to Geelong's 27. This advantage translated into clearances, where Fremantle led 44 to 31. Their strategy was clear: dominate the centre and control the game.

Inside the forward 50, Fremantle ventured forward 60 times compared to Geelong's 47. They were more effective, with 16 marks inside 50 to Geelong’s 11. Their defence, rated higher, held strong against Geelong’s forwards.

Despite Geelong's strong pre-match ratings and recent form, Fremantle turned the tables. Geelong had won their last five games, averaging over 115 points, but Fremantle's defence stifled their attack. Geelong's average winning margin of 39.4 points vanished under Fremantle's pressure.

Fremantle's 68 tackles to Geelong’s 55 highlighted their intent to disrupt Geelong's play. This pressure, combined with efficient ball use, set Fremantle apart. The match stayed competitive, showing Geelong's firepower.

The model predicted a narrow Fremantle win by one point, but the reality was more decisive. The 226 total points scored far exceeded the predicted 169, highlighting the high-scoring nature of the game. The model correctly tipped Fremantle but missed on the margin and total points.

Fremantle's win was built on superior midfield control and forward efficiency. Geelong, despite their efforts, were outplayed in key areas. Wins and losses are part of the game. Geelong will feel the sting of a missed opportunity, but Fremantle made their case convincingly.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 38 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 120 |
| Geelong Cats | 13 | 31 | 36 | 26 | 106 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **364** | Disposals | 327 |
| **141** | Contested poss. | 133 |
| **44** | Clearances | 31 |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| 74 | Marks | **75** |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **68** | Tackles | 55 |
| **46** | Hit-outs | 27 |
| 58 | Intercepts | **62** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.0 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 226 points came in 57 points higher than the predicted 169. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.55 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 51.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +9.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 1 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Fremantle and Geelong Cats. The model can't split them, landing on Fremantle at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Geelong Cats sit 144 ELO points clear, 1823 to 1679, so the model is backing Fremantle against the ratings gap. Form leans Geelong Cats' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Fremantle.

On paper Geelong Cats shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Recent Form, ELO Rating and Lineup Strength. The model still sides with Fremantle, which says Defence and Weather carry the most weight. The margin model has Fremantle by 1.0, with the two sides combining for about 169. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 84.2pts | Avg Score | 115.8pts |
| 86.6pts | Avg Conceded | 76.4pts |
| -2.4pts | Avg Margin | 39.4pts |
| 343.0 | Disposals | 375.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 57.8 | Tackles | 62.8 |
| 36.6 | Clearances | 40.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R21 W · R22 L · R23 W · R24 L · QE L | 84.2 |
| Geelong Cats | R21 W · R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · QE W | 115.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Geelong Cats lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Fremantle | 99 – 90 | Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats 52% ✗ |
| 2026 | R1 | Geelong Cats | 110 – 100 | Fremantle | Fremantle 61% ✗ |
| 2025 | R1 | Geelong Cats | 147 – 69 | Fremantle | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Fremantle | 62 – 73 | Geelong Cats | not priced |
| 2023 | R20 | Geelong Cats | 64 – 71 | Fremantle | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 234 · 183 | 263 · 214 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.8/g | 20.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.8/g | 11/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.5% | 66.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 97 · 53 | 73 · 60 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 165/g | 141/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.6/g | 25.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.3% | 70.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 12 | 24 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 13/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.8% | 79.9% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.99/g (lg 3.92) +2% · Forwards 4.31/g (lg 4.49) -4% · Midfielders 2.16/g (lg 2.49) -13%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.25/g (lg 4.49) -5% · Key Forwards 3.37/g (lg 3.92) -14% · Midfielders 2.14/g (lg 2.49) -14%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 59 in 23g | 27/10g (3·1·1·2·4·5·0·5·5·1) | 9/6g | 92/52g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 84' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 55 in 24g | 21/10g (0·3·4·3·1·3·2·1·3·1) | 6/7g | 93/56g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 94' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 41 in 23g | 15/10g (2·2·2·1·1·1·4·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 39/29g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 21' 98' 94' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 28 in 24g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·2·3·1·0) | 4/2g | 25/23g | 74% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 25 in 24g | 10/10g (2·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 5/10g | 51/55g | 70% | — | 🏉 93' 100' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 23 in 19g | 13/10g (4·0·2·3·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 9/7g | 80/68g | 62% | — | 🏉 11' 70' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 21 in 23g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 9/9g | 45/36g | 70% | — | 🏉 2' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 13 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 3/9g | 43/67g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 12 in 22g | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/3g | 20/26g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 10 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 7/9g | 32/79g | 28% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 8 in 24g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 5/10g | 36/102g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 8 in 15g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 15/52g | 36% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 7 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/37g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/43g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/10g | 15/18g | 28% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 10/66g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/51g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 3/16g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/74g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/29g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/103g | 0% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 49 in 24g | 24/10g (2·3·0·1·5·2·3·2·4·2) | 10/4g | 5/3g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 63' 83' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 43 in 23g | 20/10g (2·0·1·2·4·3·4·1·2·1) | 12/5g | 9/4g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 67' 82' 86' 77' |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 39 in 18g | 15/10g (3·3·4·0·3·2·0·0·0·0) | 34/16g | 21/11g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 90' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 36 in 24g | 15/10g (0·0·4·1·1·1·1·3·3·1) | 5/3g | 3/3g | 74% | — | 🏉 41' 81' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 30 in 24g | 15/10g (0·2·3·2·0·2·4·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 2/4g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 28 in 18g | 18/10g (1·1·0·5·0·1·0·2·3·5) | 23/18g | 5/10g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 88' |
| – | Jay Polkinghorne | KF | 14 in 7g | 14/7g (2·2·3·1·3·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oliver Wiltshire | FWD | 13 in 15g | 11/10g (3·2·1·1·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 56% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 11 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 7/9g | 4/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 11 in 17g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/8g | 6/9g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 6 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 3/9g | 6/11g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 6 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 3/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 5 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 5 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 3/19g | 1/13g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 0/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/9g | 4% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 24.5 | $1.89 | 53% | 23 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 24.5 | $2.00 | 51% | 24 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 22.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid | 20.5 | $1.96 | 56% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 25 ✗ |
| Ollie Dempsey | 19.5 | $1.89 | — | 17 ✓ |
| Thomas Stewart | 19.5 | $1.88 | — | 14 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 20 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 19.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| Hayden Young | 18.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 23 ✗ |
| Karl Worner | 17.5 | $1.88 | 46% | 18 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus | 16.5 | $1.92 | 47% | 17 ✗ |
| Matt Johnson | 16.5 | $1.90 | — | 15 ✓ |
| Heath Chapman | 14.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 16 ✗ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 29 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 22.5 | $2.00 | 39% | 18 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 17 ✓ |
| Tanner Bruhn | 19.5 | $1.83 | 55% | 18 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $2.00 | 60% | 12 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 17.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 22 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 16.5 | $1.92 | 45% | 9 ✓ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 15.5 | $1.83 | 44% | 14 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 14.5 | $1.89 | 57% | 18 ✗ |
| Mark Blicavs | 12.5 | $1.91 | 44% | 8 ✓ |
| Connor O'Sullivan | 12.5 | $1.81 | 44% | 15 ✗ |
| Oisin Mullin | 12.5 | $1.83 | 49% | 17 ✗ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 12.5 | $1.82 | 49% | 14 ✗ |
| Mark O'Connor | 12.5 | $1.88 | 42% | 13 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Geelong Cats hold the ELO advantage (1823 vs 1679), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.55). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1679 · Geelong Cats 1823 · ELO difference: 144 in favour of Geelong Cats

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | Geelong Cats | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1193 (best 1193) | 1411 (best 1411) | Geelong Cats +218 |
| Forwards | 1053 (best 1248) | 1219 (best 1449) | Geelong Cats +166 |
| Defence | 1236 (best 1479) | 1084 (best 1192) | Fremantle +152 |
| Ruck | 1179 (best 1358) | 1215 (best 1239) | Geelong Cats +35 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Form | 26.6% | Geelong Cats |
| 2 | ELO Rating | 17.8% | Geelong Cats |
| 3 | Defence | 11.9% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Weather | 9.9% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Lineup Strength | 7.6% | Geelong Cats |
| 6 | Forward Line | 6.3% | Geelong Cats |
| 7 | Ruck | 5.8% | Geelong Cats |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-11 12:58 UTC (latest tip update)