# Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows — AFL Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Prediction coming soon

Our AFL model publishes its win probability, margin and total for Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows closer to kick-off. The head-to-head picture below is real historical data.

### Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sat, 12 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST · Gabba · Semi Finals

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Brisbane Lions | 127 – 75 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2025 | R13 | Adelaide Crows | 68 – 63 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | R17 | Brisbane Lions | 97 – 86 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R9 | Adelaide Crows | 90 – 90 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 99 – 93 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 286 · 235 | 229 · 195 |
| Goal Assists | 5.6/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.8/g | 19.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.1/g | 8.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 67.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 81 · 68 | 95 · 62 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 164/g | 138/g |
| Inside 50s | 26/g | 23.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.2/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 69.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 12 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 9.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 81.5% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.04/g (lg 1.04) +0% · Forwards 4.36/g (lg 4.5) -3% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.47) -11%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Key Forwards 3.99/g (lg 3.91) +2% · Forwards 4.28/g (lg 4.5) -5% · Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.52) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
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Last updated: 2026-09-07 07:55 UTC (latest tip update)