# Richmond v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 61 – 98 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows fight back to pick apart Richmond._

Half time: 46 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 45% / Adelaide Crows 55% · MCG · Sun, 10 May, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Tom Lynch (6' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Noah Balta (20'), Seth Campbell (24' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Sonsie (42'), Steely Green (51'), Mykelti Lefau (55' Tipped ⚡), Sam Cumming (72') · Adelaide Crows: Luke Pedlar (10' Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (18' ×2), Izak Rankine (23' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Curtin (46'), Nick Murray (48'), Riley Thilthorpe (61' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (77'), Isaac Cumming (84'), Toby Murray (61'), Josh Rachele (81' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan McAndrew (84'), Ben Keays (87' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 55% | Won |
| Richmond | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 37 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 May 2026, 06:54 pm · Last updated: 10 May 2026, 07:59 pm_

Richmond 61–98 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 9 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ninety marks to 141. That gap alone tells most of the story of Adelaide Crows' 98-61 demolition of Richmond at the MCG, and it explains why one side kept the ball moving forward while the other kept chasing shadows.

The ladder didn't read that way all night, though. Richmond were actually up 46-36 at half time, holding their own against a side rated the stronger outfit across the board. Then the roof fell in. Adelaide Crows outscored them by 23 points in the third term alone to lead 70-47 at the last change, and from there it was just a matter of how big.

The disposal count backs up the mark differential: 385 to 336, with Adelaide Crows finding targets at 79.7% efficiency against Richmond's 76.5%. Small margins in accuracy compound over four quarters, and by the final siren they'd turned into a 37-point beating. Fourteen marks inside 50 to Richmond's six says the same thing in a different postcode: when Adelaide Crows went forward, the ball stuck.

Adelaide Crows also won the physical arguments. Sixty-two tackles to 37 is not a stat you rack up when you're behind and panicking, it's a stat you rack up when you're in front and choosing to bury the contest anyway. Add 65 intercepts to 53 and 54 inside 50s to 43, and Richmond were never allowed to settle into any rhythm of their own.

The ruck battle went to the form book. Adelaide Crows' 1089 rating there against Richmond's 1066 played out almost exactly as written, 37 hit-outs to 19, and that platform fed the clearance count too, 29 to 26. Richmond's defence was rated the stronger unit coming in, 1108 to 1151, which on paper should have kept this closer. It didn't hold once the ball started arriving inside 50 that often.

None of this should surprise anyone who'd looked at the last five weeks. Adelaide Crows came in with three wins from five and an average margin of minus 4.8, Richmond with one win and an average margin of minus 43.2. Adelaide Crows were scoring 88.8 a game to Richmond's 69.8. Different codes of footy, almost.

Alphr's model backed Adelaide Crows at 55% and got the winner right. It undercooked the margin badly, calling it for 9.8 points when the reality was 37, and it had the total at 143 against an actual 159. Three from four on the night, with the under on 180.5 landing and Richmond covering the 37.5-point line despite the manner of the loss.

Adelaide Crows leave Melbourne having done exactly what their form suggested they could. Richmond leave with a half-time lead that turned out to mean nothing much at all.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 20 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 61 |
| Adelaide Crows | 20 | 16 | 34 | 28 | 98 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Disposals | **385** |
| **127** | Contested poss. | 118 |
| 27 | Clearances | **29** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| 92 | Marks | **141** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 38 | Tackles | **62** |
| 19 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| 55 | Intercepts | **65** |
| 76.2% | Disposal eff. | **79.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.8 but the actual margin was 37 points. The game's 159 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 143. Adelaide Crows trailed 46–36 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 61–98. The model went 3/4 on this match. Richmond covered the 37.5-point line. The under 180.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.13 (edge -33.8%) — model probability 54.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +47.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 10 · Predicted total: 143

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Adelaide Crows are the call at 55%, but Richmond stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 442 ELO points clear, 1581 to 1138. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Richmond.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model has Richmond by 9.8, with the two sides combining for about 143. Lean Adelaide Crows, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 69.8pts | Avg Score | 88.8pts |
| 113.0pts | Avg Conceded | 93.6pts |
| -43.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 W | 69.8 |
| Adelaide Crows | R4 L · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W | 88.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 57 · 90 | 70 · 72 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 5.6/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.8/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 65.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 33 | 28 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.3/g | 20.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.6% | 70.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 4 | 2 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.3/g | 9.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.18/g (lg 1.14) +4% · Forwards 4.39/g (lg 4.45) -1% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.5) -7%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.91/g (lg 3.82) +29% · Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.5) +22% · Midfielders 2.98/g (lg 2.5) +19%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 11 in 8g | 16/10g (3·2·0·3·0·0·1·2·2·3) | 3/2g | 23/28g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 9 in 8g | 10/10g (0·1·2·0·3·0·0·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 12/18g | 51% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 8 in 7g | 12/10g (2·2·0·1·0·0·4·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 10/10g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·3) | 0/1g | 5/12g | 49% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 1/7g | 26/60g | 32% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 4 in 4g | 15/10g (0·3·1·1·3·3·2·0·1·1) | 18/12g | 157/72g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 36' 65' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 31/53g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/54g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 19/106g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 17/143g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/21g | 20% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/44g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 8/44g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/16g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/13g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/97g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hayes-Brown | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/26g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Burton | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 13 in 8g | 18/10g (2·3·3·2·1·1·1·3·1·1) | 7/3g | 12/7g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 12 in 8g | 14/10g (0·2·1·2·1·1·4·1·0·2) | 8/4g | 11/8g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 81' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·3·2·1·3) | 2/8g | 8/13g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 8 in 7g | 13/10g (3·1·1·1·1·0·2·1·2·1) | 4/4g | 10/8g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 6 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·2) | 0/7g | 5/15g | 50% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 5/9g | 62/94g | 48% | — | 🏉 18' 67' |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 5 in 7g | 12/10g (3·3·1·1·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/13g | 30% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 6/8g | 40% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 4% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 3/3g | 33% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/25g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 71% | 26 ✗ |
| Jayden Short | 23.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 26 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 22.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 23 ✗ |
| Kane McAuliffe | 20.5 | $1.84 | 59% | 10 ✓ |
| Tom Brown ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.83 | 77% | 1 ✓ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 16.5 | $1.83 | 55% | 13 ✓ |
| Seth Campbell | 14.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 12 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.92 | 66% | 29 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 34 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.95 | 43% | 27 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 24.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.91 | 80% | 20 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 84% | 33 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 19 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.77 | 75% | 8 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 75% | 14 ✓ |
| Brayden Cook ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.83 | 75% | 22 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 17.5 | $1.83 | 62% | 16 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Richmond 1138 · Adelaide Crows 1581 · ELO difference: 442 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Richmond | Adelaide Crows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1099 (best 1475) | 1068 (best 1313) | Richmond +31 |
| Forwards | 986 (best 1491) | 974 (best 1396) | Richmond +12 |
| Defence | 1108 (best 1589) | 1151 (best 1538) | Adelaide Crows +42 |
| Ruck | 1066 (best 1392) | 1089 (best 1172) | Adelaide Crows +22 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Richmond |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 143 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-10 09:59 UTC (latest tip update)