AFL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

Thu 7 May8:10pm
FREFRE
HAWHAW
Fri 8 May7:30pm
BRIBRI
CARCAR
Fri 8 May8:10pm
PORPOR
WBDWBD
Sat 9 May1:15pm
NORNOR
SYDSYD
Sat 9 May4:15pm
GWSGWS
ESSESS
Sat 9 May7:10pm
GCSGCS
STKSTK
Sat 9 May7:35pm
GEEGEE
COLCOL
Sun 10 May1:10pm
MELMEL
WCEWCE
Sun 10 May3:15pm
RICRIC
ADEADE
RIC
Richmond
VS
ADE
Adelaide Crows
MCG • SUNDAY 10 MAY, 3:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.8 but the actual margin was 37 points. The game's 159 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 143. Adelaide Crows trailed 46–36 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 61–98. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 180.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

55%Adelaide CrowsFavourite

Richmond

45%

Adelaide Crows

55%

✨

AI Match Overview

Adelaide Crows hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Richmond are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Adelaide Crows carry a 442-point ELO rating advantage (1581 vs 1138). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Richmond by 9.8 points with a combined total of 143.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Adelaide Crows to Win @1.13

Winner ✓

Edge

-33.8%

✓

Line / Spread

Richmond +37.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+47.3%

✓

Margin Band

Richmond 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 180.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.4%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Richmond
R4W
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L

older → newer

58.6
Adelaide Crows
R4W
R5L
R6W
R7W
R8L
85.6

Avg Conceded

116.0

Richmond

92.2

Adelaide Crows

Avg Margin

-57.4

Richmond

-6.6

Adelaide Crows

Disposals

350.0

Richmond

350.0

Adelaide Crows

Inside 50s

50.0

Richmond

50.0

Adelaide Crows

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

RIC
1138Overall1581
ADE
ELO difference: -442 in favour of Adelaide Crows

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1099Midfield1068
Best: 1475RIC +31Best: 1313
986Forwards974
Best: 1491RIC +12Best: 1396
1108Defence1151
Best: 1589ADE +42Best: 1538
1066Ruck1089
Best: 1392ADE +22Best: 1172

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

RIC
Stat
ADE
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
58.6pts
Avg Score
85.6pts
116.0pts
Avg Conceded
92.2pts
-57.4pts
Avg Margin
-6.6pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Crows
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Richmond
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Crows
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Richmond
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Crows
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Crows
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

55%

Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 143 · Line: +9.8

3/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props