Win Probability
AI Game Review
Western Bulldogs defied the model's 52% prediction for Port Adelaide — a notable result. The predicted margin of 9.1 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 177.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
52%
Western Bulldogs
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Port Adelaide a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Defensive ELO and Scoring Form. Western Bulldogs carry a 80-point ELO rating advantage (1518 vs 1438). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 9.1 points with a combined total of 140.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.3%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -0.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.6%
Margin Band
Port Adelaide 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 177.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | R4L R5W R6L R7L R8W older → newer | 85.6 |
Western Bulldogs | R4L R5L R6L R7L R8W | 74.6 |
Avg Conceded
75.0
Port Adelaide
102.8
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
10.6
Port Adelaide
-28.2
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
350.0
Port Adelaide
350.0
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1518 vs 1438), but the market favours Port Adelaide (@1.90).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 140 · Line: +9.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.