# Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 72 – 74 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs hold off a fast-finishing Port Adelaide._

Half time: 41 – 59 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 52% / Western Bulldogs 48% · Adelaide Oval · Fri, 08 May, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (18' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jack Watkins (26'), Jordon Sweet (31'), Ewan Mackinlay (42'), Jack Whitlock (49' Tipped ⚡), Logan Evans (75'), Corey Durdin (89' Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards (7' 1st), Rhylee West (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Arthur Jones (22'), Marcus Bontempelli (29' Tipped ⚡), Aaron Naughton (33' Tipped ⚡), Joel Freijah (44'), Will Lewis (52' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 52% | Lost |
| Western Bulldogs | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 May 2026, 06:54 pm · Last updated: 8 May 2026, 11:42 pm_

Port Adelaide 72–74 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 9 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Western Bulldogs led every scoreboard checkpoint of this one, and it still came down to two points at the final siren. That's the kind of afternoon Adelaide Oval served up: 74–72, and neither side made it easy on themselves.

The Bulldogs were the ones setting the pace early. They led 38–25 at quarter time and stretched it to 59–41 by half time, an 18-point buffer built largely off their grip on the contest. Forty-one clearances to 30 and 58 inside 50s to 35 tell you where that lead came from. When you're getting the ball forward that often, and winning it out of the middle that convincingly, an 18-point break isn't a surprise. It's arithmetic.

Then the third quarter happened, or rather, didn't happen for the Bulldogs. They managed just one point between half time and three-quarter time, while Port Adelaide found 14 to cut the margin back to five, 60–55. Port's ruck division was the difference-maker in that surge, 43 hit-outs to 31, and with 119 marks to the Bulldogs' 97, they were clearly winning enough second-phase ball to build pressure the Bulldogs couldn't match in that patch.

The last quarter was tight but not enough. Port piled on 17 to the Bulldogs' 14, closing from five down to two down, but they ran out of time before they ran out of momentum. The Bulldogs' lead never got comfortable again after half time, but it never actually disappeared either.

Look at the guts of the stat sheet and it's a genuinely even contest dressed up as one team's dominance. Disposals were close, 369 to 361 in the Bulldogs' favour, and disposal efficiency barely separated them, 74.2 to 73.4 for Port. Tackles were close too, 61 to 59. Marks inside 50 were dead level at 11 apiece. This wasn't a hiding. It was a genuine arm wrestle where the Bulldogs' clearance and inside-50 dominance early proved just enough of a head start.

Pre-match, the ruck rating gap between these two sides was the widest of any category, 1232 to 1119 in the Bulldogs' favour, yet Port turned that around on the day and won the hit-out count comfortably. That's a read the model didn't have right, but it says something about how differently the actual contest played out compared to what the ratings suggested.

Alphr's model had Port Adelaide favourites by 9.1 points with a 52% win probability, and got the shape of the contest badly wrong on the winner, going 1 from 4 on this one. The under on 177.5 combined points landed though, with the game finishing on 146. Small mercies. The margin call wasn't far off either, 9.1 predicted against a 2-point actual result, close enough to suggest the model had the contest's tightness roughly right, just backed the wrong side to get there.

Port Adelaide's form line, WLLWL, promised more scoreboard control than they showed for three quarters. The Bulldogs, LLLLL before this, needed the result more, and their third-quarter scoring drought almost cost them everything they'd built. It didn't. Two points was enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 25 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 72 |
| Western Bulldogs | 38 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 74 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Disposals | **378** |
| 109 | Contested poss. | **112** |
| 30 | Clearances | **41** |
| 35 | Inside 50s | **59** |
| **119** | Marks | 102 |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 59 | Tackles | **64** |
| **43** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **61** | Intercepts | 58 |
| **74.2%** | Disposal eff. | 73.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Western Bulldogs defied the model's 52% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable result. The predicted margin of 9.1 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 177.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.90 (edge -0.3%) — model probability 52.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -0.5 @ $1.90 (edge +8.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 9 · Predicted total: 140

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs. The model can't split them, landing on Port Adelaide at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: Western Bulldogs sit 80 ELO points clear, 1518 to 1438, so the model is backing Port Adelaide against the ratings gap. Form leans Port Adelaide's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Western Bulldogs.

Port Adelaide own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, Defensive ELO and Scoring Form. The margin model has Port Adelaide by 9.1, with the two sides combining for about 140. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 82.6pts | Avg Score | 76.2pts |
| 71.8pts | Avg Conceded | 108.0pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Margin | -31.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | R4 W · R5 L · R6 L · R7 W · R8 L | 82.6 |
| Western Bulldogs | R4 W · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 76.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 63 · 64 | 68 · 80 |
| Goal Assists | 4.1/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 93/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.9/g | 14.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.3/g | 8.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 21 | 26 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 4.9/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 153/g | 147/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.6/g | 25/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 71.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 7 | 10 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.6/g | 11.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.5) +10% · Key Forwards 4.07/g (lg 3.81) +7% · Midfielders 2.53/g (lg 2.51) +1%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.15) +10% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.5) +8% · Key Forwards 3.79/g (lg 3.81) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 21 in 8g | 26/10g (1·4·3·2·3·2·2·2·4·3) | 8/6g | 112/56g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 28' 71' 80' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 14 in 8g | 14/10g (0·0·2·2·2·1·2·1·2·2) | 1/2g | 18/11g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 11 in 8g | 15/10g (1·3·0·3·1·2·2·2·1·0) | 5/5g | 43/43g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 10 in 8g | 14/10g (3·1·2·0·3·2·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/7g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 7/12g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 47/125g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 14/18g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.80 AI 50% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 10/34g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 5/26g | 28% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 17/61g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/9g | 32/81g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/9g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 33% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/47g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 9/17g | 55/139g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 11/78g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 25/67g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/70g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/17g | 7% | — | 🏉 75' |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 21 in 8g | 26/10g (3·2·2·6·3·3·1·3·1·2) | 17/10g | 17/11g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 12 in 8g | 16/10g (2·2·3·3·1·1·0·0·2·2) | 18/15g | 16/16g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | 8 in 7g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·2·3·0·0·2·1) | 0/2g | 3/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/13g | 4/15g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 4 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·3·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 4 in 7g | 8/10g (2·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 4/12g | 58% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 4 in 8g | 8/10g (1·3·0·0·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 5/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 3 in 8g | 8/10g (3·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 5/3g | 4/5g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 71' |
| – | Will Lewis | KF | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 52' 65' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·2) | 4/4g | 4/4g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 4/9g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 9/8g | 6/9g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Gallagher | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jedd Busslinger | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Smith | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Michael Sellwood | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 30.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 30 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines | 25.5 | $1.85 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 18 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $2.00 | 68% | 27 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.80 | 54% | 21 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.80 | 83% | 4 ✓ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.84 | 69% | 17 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 15 ✓ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 22 ✗ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 30 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 25 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 27 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 84% | 31 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 25 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 19.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 21 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah | 18.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 26 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1518 vs 1438), but the market favours Port Adelaide (@1.90). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Port Adelaide 1438 · Western Bulldogs 1518 · ELO difference: 80 in favour of Western Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Port Adelaide | Western Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1106 (best 1563) | 1103 (best 1248) | Port Adelaide +4 |
| Forwards | 998 (best 1469) | 1034 (best 1541) | Western Bulldogs +36 |
| Defence | 1105 (best 1600) | 1072 (best 1216) | Port Adelaide +33 |
| Ruck | 1119 (best 1513) | 1232 (best 1495) | Western Bulldogs +113 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Port Adelaide |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Port Adelaide predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 140 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-08 13:42 UTC (latest tip update)