AFL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

Thu 7 May8:10pm
FREFRE
HAWHAW
Fri 8 May7:30pm
BRIBRI
CARCAR
Fri 8 May8:10pm
PORPOR
WBDWBD
Sat 9 May1:15pm
NORNOR
SYDSYD
Sat 9 May4:15pm
GWSGWS
ESSESS
Sat 9 May7:10pm
GCSGCS
STKSTK
Sat 9 May7:35pm
GEEGEE
COLCOL
Sun 10 May1:10pm
MELMEL
WCEWCE
Sun 10 May3:15pm
RICRIC
ADEADE
NOR
North Melbourne
VS
SYD
Sydney Swans
MARVEL STADIUM • SATURDAY 9 MAY, 1:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 202 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 144. Sydney Swans trailed 56–55 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 97–105. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

54%Sydney SwansFavourite

North Melbourne

46%

Sydney Swans

54%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though North Melbourne are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Sydney Swans carry a 416-point ELO rating advantage (1795 vs 1379). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 2.3 points with a combined total of 144.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sydney Swans to Win @1.29

Winner ✓

Edge

-24.0%

✓

Line / Spread

North Melbourne +24.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+26.8%

✓

Margin Band

North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 191.5 @1.86

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.2%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
North Melbourne
R4L
R5L
R6W
R7L
R8W

older → newer

94.2
Sydney Swans
R4W
R5W
R6W
R7W
R8W
115.6

Avg Conceded

81.4

North Melbourne

65.6

Sydney Swans

Avg Margin

12.8

North Melbourne

50.0

Sydney Swans

Disposals

350.0

North Melbourne

350.0

Sydney Swans

Inside 50s

50.0

North Melbourne

50.0

Sydney Swans

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NOR
1379Overall1795
SYD
ELO difference: -416 in favour of Sydney Swans

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1111Midfield1188
Best: 1475SYD +77Best: 1471
996Forwards1001
Best: 1525EvenBest: 1600
1080Defence1140
Best: 1302SYD +60Best: 1534
1094Ruck1153
Best: 1600SYD +59Best: 1513

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NOR
Stat
SYD
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
94.2pts
Avg Score
115.6pts
81.4pts
Avg Conceded
65.6pts
12.8pts
Avg Margin
50.0pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Swans
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Swans
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Swans
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Swans
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Swans
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Swans
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

54%

Sydney Swans predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 144 · Line: +2.3

2/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props