# North Melbourne v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 97 – 105 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans rally to glide past North Melbourne._

Half time: 56 – 55 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 46% / Sydney Swans 54% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 09 May, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Cameron Zurhaar (9'), Tristan Xerri (12'), Jack Darling (19' Tipped ⚡), Zane Duursma (24' ×2), Finn OSullivan (28' ×2), Charlie Spargo (50'), Jy Simpkin (60'), Tom Blamires (77'), Jacob Konstanty (93'), Harry Sheezel (75') · Sydney Swans: Isaac Heeney (6' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Logan McDonald (8' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Hayden McLean (31' ×2), Joel Amartey (32' Tipped ⚡), Tom Papley (43' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (72'), Billy Cootee (74'), Jake Lloyd (81'), Angus Sheldrick (87')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 54% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne vs Sydney Swans Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 9, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 May 2026, 06:54 pm · Last updated: 9 May 2026, 04:25 pm_

North Melbourne 97–105 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 9 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirteen marks inside 50 to nine. That's the number that decided it, and it's why Sydney Swans left Marvel Stadium 105-97 winners despite North Melbourne dominating almost everything else on the stat sheet.

North Melbourne had 63 inside 50s to Sydney's 51. They out-marked the Swans 102 to 59 across the ground. They ran up 387 disposals to 347 and did it more efficiently, 76.0% to 69.7%. By the volume metrics, this looks like a Kangaroos win. It wasn't, because volume isn't value, and Sydney kept finding the target when it counted, inside their own forward 50.

The game stayed level for a long stretch. North Melbourne led 38-31 at quarter time and the margin had shrunk to a single point by half time, 56-55. By three-quarter time the Swans were up 94-81, having outscored North Melbourne 39 to 25 in that third term. From there it became a hold-on job. North Melbourne narrowed things slightly in the last quarter but never got it back under single figures, going down 105-97 at the final siren.

Sydney's other numbers explain how they weathered a game they were being outplayed in territorially. They won the tackle count 60 to 51 and the hit-outs 33 to 26, which mattered more at the coalface than the raw clearance count suggests, North led there 33-30. Intercepts were close, 75 to 73, so this wasn't a turnover blowout either way. It came down to conversion, plain and simple.

That tracks with what the positional ratings said walking in. Sydney rated higher everywhere that matters inside the contest: midfield 1188 to 1111, ruck 1153 to 1094, defence 1140 to 1080. North Melbourne's only edge was forward, and even that was marginal, 1001 to 996. Add in the form lines, Sydney unbeaten in their last five with an average winning margin of 56.8 points and an average score of 125.4, against North Melbourne splitting theirs down the middle at 0.6 with an average of 95.2, and the Swans arriving as the stronger, more settled outfit was never in doubt.

Alphr's model had Sydney to win at 54% and picked the margin at 2.3 points. The Swans won by 8, so the model had the right side and wasn't far off the margin, though it undercooked the total badly. It pegged this at 144 points combined; the sides put up 202, 58 more than expected. North Melbourne also covered the 24.5-point line, for what that's worth on a day the scoreboard result mattered more. Whoever built that model didn't see 63 inside 50s from North Melbourne coming, and to be fair, neither did the fact that North Melbourne couldn't convert them.

North Melbourne will look at those forward 50 entries and wonder how they lost. Sixty-three trips forward for just nine marks inside 50 tells its own story: they got the ball there and then fumbled the finish. Sydney managed the reverse, fewer looks, better hands, 13 marks from 51 entries. In a game decided by an 8-point margin after three-quarter time, that's the whole difference.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 38 | 18 | 25 | 16 | 97 |
| Sydney Swans | 31 | 24 | 39 | 11 | 105 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| **387** | Disposals | 347 |
| 132 | Contested poss. | 132 |
| **33** | Clearances | 30 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 51 |
| **102** | Marks | 59 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 51 | Tackles | **60** |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **33** |
| **75** | Intercepts | 73 |
| **76.0%** | Disposal eff. | 69.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 202 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 144. Sydney Swans trailed 56–55 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 97–105. The model went 2/4 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 24.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.29 (edge -24.0%) — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +24.5 @ $1.90 (edge +26.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 191.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 2 · Predicted total: 144

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sydney Swans are the call at 54%, but North Melbourne stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 416 ELO points clear, 1795 to 1379. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for North Melbourne.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has North Melbourne by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 144. Lean Sydney Swans, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| North Melbourne | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 95.2pts | Avg Score | 125.4pts |
| 94.6pts | Avg Conceded | 68.6pts |
| 0.6pts | Avg Margin | 56.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 L | 95.2 |
| Sydney Swans | R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W | 125.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 85 · 68 | 86 · 52 |
| Goal Assists | 4.9/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.1/g | 19.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.9/g | 11.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.6% | 69.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 25 | 47 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 160/g |
| Inside 50s | 25/g | 30.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.9% | 71.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 7 · 3 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.8/g | 14.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 79.4% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.65/g (lg 0.5) +30% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.48) -5% · Key Forwards 3.39/g (lg 3.8) -11%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Key Forwards 5.19/g (lg 3.8) +37% · Defenders 1.5/g (lg 1.15) +30% · Rucks 0.63/g (lg 0.5) +26%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 22 in 8g | 30/10g (5·3·4·6·2·2·1·2·4·1) | 17/7g | 138/63g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 90% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 16 in 8g | 24/10g (5·3·1·2·1·2·1·6·2·1) | 3/5g | 59/39g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 13 in 8g | 19/10g (3·3·3·0·2·3·2·3·0·0) | 0/0g | 14/5g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 12 in 8g | 12/10g (0·0·1·0·3·3·0·2·0·3) | 0/0g | 12/15g | 46% | — | 🏉 24' 82' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 8 in 7g | 13/10g (3·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·3) | 18/14g | 64/44g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 11/9g | 99/67g | 68% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 8/12g | 33/83g | 46% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/3g | 7/22g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/4g | 12/34g | 46% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/10g | 6/12g | 34% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/26g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 24/60g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 36/45g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/26g | 6% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/20g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/11g | 37% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 11/104g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 13/34g | 22% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 30/102g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/26g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | no games | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 20 in 8g | 22/10g (0·2·3·5·1·2·0·2·3·4) | 6/2g | 16/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 13 in 7g | 14/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·2·1·0·7) | 6/4g | 3/8g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 12 in 8g | 14/10g (2·0·1·2·3·0·1·2·0·3) | 6/2g | 11/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 22' 62' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 11 in 8g | 13/10g (2·0·3·2·1·1·1·2·0·1) | 3/6g | 5/14g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·2·1·3·0) | 10/6g | 17/12g | 64% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 10 in 6g | 18/10g (1·5·1·1·2·2·4·2·0·0) | 20/14g | 43/30g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 41' 85' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 10 in 8g | 15/10g (2·3·1·0·1·2·3·1·1·1) | 19/10g | 40/24g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 70' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 6/13g | 12/32g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·1·1) | 3/16g | 6/33g | 30% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/13g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/19g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 7/29g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Cootee | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/17g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 8/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/20g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 1/32g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | no games | 11/10g (1·1·0·3·1·1·0·0·2·2) | 10/7g | 12/12g | 74% | — | 🏉 31' 79' |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | William Edwards | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 29.5 | $2.00 | 47% | 31 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 24.5 | $1.83 | 46% | 34 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 23.5 | $1.95 | 46% | 29 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher | 21.5 | $1.91 | 52% | 25 ✗ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 19.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 22 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 19 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 19.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 18 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 19.5 | $1.91 | 39% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke McDonald | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 16 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $2.00 | 74% | 24 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 73% | 22 ✓ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 71% | 22 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 69% | 26 ✗ |
| Chad Warner ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 6 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 73% | 14 ✓ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 22 ✗ |
| Logan McDonald ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 100% | 4 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 9 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — North Melbourne 1379 · Sydney Swans 1795 · ELO difference: 416 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | North Melbourne | Sydney Swans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1111 (best 1475) | 1188 (best 1471) | Sydney Swans +77 |
| Forwards | 996 (best 1525) | 1001 (best 1600) | Sydney Swans +5 |
| Defence | 1080 (best 1302) | 1140 (best 1534) | Sydney Swans +60 |
| Ruck | 1094 (best 1600) | 1153 (best 1513) | Sydney Swans +59 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 144 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-09 06:25 UTC (latest tip update)