Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
57%
West Coast Eagles
43%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though West Coast Eagles are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Melbourne carry a 323-point ELO rating advantage (1447 vs 1124). Recent form favours Melbourne with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 12.5 points with a combined total of 141.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.11
Winner ✓
Edge
-33.5%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +42.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.0%
Margin Band
Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 195.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | R4L R5W R6W R7L R8W older → newer | 101.4 |
West Coast Eagles | R4L R5L R6L R7L R8L | 57.2 |
Avg Conceded
90.6
Melbourne
123.0
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
10.8
Melbourne
-65.8
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
350.0
Melbourne
350.0
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Melbourne predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 141 · Line: +12.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.