AFL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

Thu 7 May8:10pm
FREFRE
HAWHAW
Fri 8 May7:30pm
BRIBRI
CARCAR
Fri 8 May8:10pm
PORPOR
WBDWBD
Sat 9 May1:15pm
NORNOR
SYDSYD
Sat 9 May4:15pm
GWSGWS
ESSESS
Sat 9 May7:10pm
GCSGCS
STKSTK
Sat 9 May7:35pm
GEEGEE
COLCOL
Sun 10 May1:10pm
MELMEL
WCEWCE
Sun 10 May3:15pm
RICRIC
ADEADE
GWS
GWS GIANTS
VS
ESS
Essendon
ENGIE STADIUM • SATURDAY 9 MAY, 4:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting GWS GIANTS by 11.8 vs the actual margin of 14 points. The game's 192 points came in 50 points higher than the predicted 142. GWS GIANTS trailed 32–47 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 103–89. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

54%GWS GIANTSFavourite

GWS GIANTS

54%

Essendon

46%

✨

AI Match Overview

GWS GIANTS hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Essendon are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. GWS GIANTS carry a 233-point ELO rating advantage (1468 vs 1236). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 11.8 points with a combined total of 142.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

GWS GIANTS to Win @1.10

Winner ✓

Edge

-37.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Essendon +42.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+30.7%

✓

Margin Band

GWS GIANTS 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 189.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.4%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
GWS GIANTS
R4L
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8L

older → newer

86.0
Essendon
R4L
R5L
R6L
R7W
R8L
83.4

Avg Conceded

89.0

GWS GIANTS

100.8

Essendon

Avg Margin

-3.0

GWS GIANTS

-17.4

Essendon

Disposals

350.0

GWS GIANTS

350.0

Essendon

Inside 50s

50.0

GWS GIANTS

50.0

Essendon

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GWS
1468Overall1236
ESS
ELO difference: +233 in favour of GWS GIANTS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1100Midfield1172
Best: 1474ESS +72Best: 1385
1008Forwards981
Best: 1361GWS +27Best: 1454
1115Defence1041
Best: 1600GWS +74Best: 1451
1140Ruck1103
Best: 1370GWS +37Best: 1323

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GWS
Stat
ESS
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
86.0pts
Avg Score
83.4pts
89.0pts
Avg Conceded
100.8pts
-3.0pts
Avg Margin
-17.4pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
GIANTS
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Essendon
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
GIANTS
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
GIANTS
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
GIANTS
6
Scoring Form8.0%
—
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
GIANTS

Model Confidence

54%

GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 142 · Line: +11.8

3/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props