# GWS GIANTS v Essendon — AFL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 103 – 89 Essendon

_GWS GIANTS rally to dwarf Essendon._

Half time: 32 – 47 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 54% / Essendon 46% · ENGIE Stadium · Sat, 09 May, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Max Gruzewski (11' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jake Stringer (25' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Riccardi (30' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (35' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Phoenix Gothard (82' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Brent Daniels (86' ×2), Aaron Cadman (76' Tipped ⚡), Harry Himmelberg (78') · Essendon: Mason Redman (7' 1st), Xavier Duursma (14' ×2), Peter Wright (37' ×3), Nate Caddy (41' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Parish (46'), Archie May (53' ×3), Archie Perkins (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 54% | Won |
| Essendon | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.8 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 9, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 May 2026, 06:54 pm · Last updated: 9 May 2026, 07:18 pm_

GWS GIANTS 103–89 Essendon in AFL Round 9 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon will look at the stat sheet and wonder how they lost this one. More disposals, 379 to 370. More inside 50s, 61 to 46. More marks, 104 to 90. More intercepts, 70 to 65. On paper, that's a team dominating the contest. On the scoreboard, it's a team that got run down.

Because for three quarters, the game was theirs to lose. Essendon led at quarter time 20-24, then blew it out to 47-32 by half time, a 15-point cushion built on all that possession up forward. Then GWS clawed back into it with a 39-point third quarter, the kind of surge that turns a laugher into a genuine arm-wrestle, and Essendon still somehow had their nose in front at the last change, 73-71.

That's when it fell apart. GWS piled on 32 in the last quarter to Essendon's 16, and a two-point ledger became a 14-point defeat, 103-89 the final tally.

The number that tells the real story is clearances: GWS 41, Essendon 37. Essendon went into this with the stronger midfield rating, 1172 to 1100, so winning the disposal count but losing the clearance battle is the sort of thing that shows up right when it matters, second and third efforts at the coalface. GWS also had the better defence rating coming in, 1115 to 1041, and the better ruck, 1140 to 1103, and both of those numbers look about right given how the last quarter played out.

Essendon's form line coming in wasn't pretty, one win from their last five with an average margin of minus-27.8 and 113.2 points leaked per game. They didn't leak that much here, conceding 103, but the pattern of building a position and then bleeding it away in the fourth is the same old habit. GWS, by contrast, came in on a leakier defensive number themselves, 90 points conceded on average, yet found 32 more than that when it counted.

Alphr's model had GWS as an 11.8-point favourite pre-match, backed by ratings of 1468 to 1236 and a 54 percent win probability. The margin landed close to spot on, 14 points against

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 24 | 8 | 39 | 32 | 103 |
| Essendon | 20 | 27 | 26 | 16 | 89 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 370 | Disposals | **379** |
| 135 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| **41** | Clearances | 37 |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| 90 | Marks | **104** |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| 49 | Tackles | **52** |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| 65 | Intercepts | **70** |
| **75.7%** | Disposal eff. | 73.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting GWS GIANTS by 11.8 vs the actual margin of 14 points. The game's 192 points came in 50 points higher than the predicted 142. GWS GIANTS trailed 32–47 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 103–89. The model went 3/4 on this match. Essendon covered the 42.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.10 (edge -37.0%) — model probability 53.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +42.5 @ $1.90 (edge +30.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 12 · Predicted total: 142

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

GWS GIANTS are the call at 54%, but Essendon stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: GWS GIANTS sit 233 ELO points clear, 1468 to 1236. Form leans GWS GIANTS's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Essendon.

GWS GIANTS own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has GWS GIANTS by 11.8, with the two sides combining for about 142. Lean GWS GIANTS, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 83.8pts | Avg Score | 85.4pts |
| 90.0pts | Avg Conceded | 113.2pts |
| -6.2pts | Avg Margin | -27.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | R3 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 L | 83.8 |
| Essendon | R4 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 85.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 76 · 77 | 53 · 96 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 70/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.6/g | 13/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.4/g | 6.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 66.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 24 | 32 · 31 |
| Goal Assists | 2.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.6/g | 19.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 75.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 0 · 11 | 10 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 155/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.1/g | 13/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.9% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.52/g (lg 4.46) +24% · Defenders 1.3/g (lg 1.15) +13% · Key Forwards 4.13/g (lg 3.81) +8%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.15) +9% · Key Forwards 3.75/g (lg 3.81) -2% · Forwards 4.16/g (lg 4.46) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 13 in 8g | 16/10g (3·0·5·0·1·2·1·0·3·1) | 13/4g | 20/14g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 68' 94' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 10 in 6g | 12/10g (0·1·0·1·3·1·0·1·2·3) | 4/6g | 35/30g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' 79' |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 10 in 8g | 10/8g (1·0·2·1·1·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' 86' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 9 in 3g | 21/10g (1·3·2·4·2·0·0·4·3·2) | 1/2g | 26/20g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 6 in 8g | 10/10g (4·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 22/13g | 147/89g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 68' |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 6/7g | 29/35g | 50% | — | 🏉 86' 79' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (0·0·2·0·3·3·2·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 10/5g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 88' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 4 in 4g | 13/10g (2·1·1·2·1·2·2·1·0·1) | 3/4g | 16/24g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/25g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/15g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/14g | 36/79g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hannaford | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/38g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 60/65g | 8% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Leake | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/6g (1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 4/38g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 30/93g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/10g | 23% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 15 in 7g | 20/10g (3·1·1·1·4·1·2·1·3·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' 69' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 8 in 8g | 10/10g (2·0·1·0·2·1·1·1·0·2) | 9/10g | 5/5g | 70% | — | 🏉 37' 74' 74' |
| – | Archer May | KF | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·2·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 53' 90' 66' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·2·2·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 14' 18' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/14g | 0/7g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 17/10g | 9/6g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 2/3g | 46% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Nik Cox | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 32.5 | $1.77 | 54% | 26 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 31.5 | $1.83 | 58% | 35 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 30.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 30 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash | 30.5 | $1.83 | 61% | 23 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Toby Greene | 21.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 18 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas | 20.5 | $1.86 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| Brent Daniels ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.85 | 74% | 17 ✓ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | 30.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 42 ✗ |
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 31 ✗ |
| Darcy Parish | 25.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 23 ✓ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.86 | 69% | 26 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 22.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 18 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 20 ✓ |
| Jacob Farrow | 17.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 13 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — GWS GIANTS 1468 · Essendon 1236 · ELO difference: 233 in favour of GWS GIANTS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | GWS GIANTS | Essendon | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1100 (best 1474) | 1172 (best 1385) | Essendon +72 |
| Forwards | 1008 (best 1361) | 981 (best 1454) | GWS GIANTS +27 |
| Defence | 1115 (best 1600) | 1041 (best 1451) | GWS GIANTS +74 |
| Ruck | 1140 (best 1370) | 1103 (best 1323) | GWS GIANTS +37 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Essendon |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | GWS GIANTS |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 142 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-09 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)