AFL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

Thu 7 May8:10pm
FREFRE
HAWHAW
Fri 8 May7:30pm
BRIBRI
CARCAR
Fri 8 May8:10pm
PORPOR
WBDWBD
Sat 9 May1:15pm
NORNOR
SYDSYD
Sat 9 May4:15pm
GWSGWS
ESSESS
Sat 9 May7:10pm
GCSGCS
STKSTK
Sat 9 May7:35pm
GEEGEE
COLCOL
Sun 10 May1:10pm
MELMEL
WCEWCE
Sun 10 May3:15pm
RICRIC
ADEADE
GCS
Gold Coast SUNS
VS
STK
St Kilda
TIO STADIUM • SATURDAY 9 MAY, 7:10 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 29 points. Gold Coast SUNS led 46–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 29. The model went 3/4 on this match. The under 192.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

50%Gold Coast SUNSFavourite

Gold Coast SUNS

50%

St Kilda

50%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Gold Coast SUNS a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 82-point ELO rating advantage (1586 vs 1504). Recent form favours St Kilda with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 3.4 points with a combined total of 142.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.38

Winner ✓

Edge

-22.3%

✓

Line / Spread

St Kilda +18.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+15.1%

✗

Margin Band

Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 192.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.4%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Gold Coast SUNS
R4W
R5L
R6W
R7L
R8L

older → newer

93.4
St Kilda
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8L
96.8

Avg Conceded

98.2

Gold Coast SUNS

79.8

St Kilda

Avg Margin

-4.8

Gold Coast SUNS

17.0

St Kilda

Disposals

350.0

Gold Coast SUNS

350.0

St Kilda

Inside 50s

50.0

Gold Coast SUNS

50.0

St Kilda

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GCS
1586Overall1504
STK
ELO difference: +82 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1112Midfield1091
Best: 1475GCS +20Best: 1253
912Forwards1008
Best: 1418STK +96Best: 1493
1113Defence1084
Best: 1463GCS +29Best: 1418
1150Ruck1138
Best: 1341GCS +12Best: 1457

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GCS
Stat
STK
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
93.4pts
Avg Score
96.8pts
98.2pts
Avg Conceded
79.8pts
-4.8pts
Avg Margin
17.0pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
SUNS
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
SUNS
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Kilda
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Kilda
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
SUNS
6
Scoring Form8.0%
—
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
SUNS

Model Confidence

50%

Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 142 · Line: +3.4

3/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props