# Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda — AFL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 89 – 60 St Kilda

_Gold Coast SUNS outshine St Kilda._

Half time: 46 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 50% / St Kilda 50% · TIO Stadium · Sat, 09 May, 07:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Lachie Weller (36'), John Noble (38'), Will Graham (40'), Daniel Rioli (49'), Alex Davies (53'), Ben King (76' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Leo Lombard (65'), Touk Miller (71'), Bailey Humphrey (79' Tipped ⚡) · St Kilda: Max Hall (14' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mitch Owens (17' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilson (21' ×4), Liam Henry (22'), Jack Sinclair (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 50% | Won |
| St Kilda | 50% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 29 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs St Kilda Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 9, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 May 2026, 06:54 pm · Last updated: 10 May 2026, 12:08 am_

Gold Coast SUNS 89–60 St Kilda in AFL Round 9 at TIO Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time in Darwin had Gold Coast SUNS up 46-36, and on the raw numbers that reads like a tight one. It wasn't. Get to quarter time first and the story flips: St Kilda led 32-7 after the opening term, a start that had SUNS fans reaching for the remote. What followed was one of those quarters that turns a game inside out, SUNS piling on 39 points to St Kilda's 4 to flip a 25-point deficit into a 10-point lead by the main break.

So the half-time picture wasn't a contest levelling out. It was the aftermath of a complete reversal, and the rest of the afternoon just confirmed which version of Gold Coast had turned up. Three-quarter time had them 60-46. Full time had them out to 89-60, a 29-point win that never looked like slipping back St Kilda's way once that second term hit.

The clearance count tells you why St Kilda were still in it as long as they were. St Kilda won that battle 39-21, a landslide, and backed it up with 13 marks inside 50 to Gold Coast's 10. Cleaner supply, cleaner finish inside the arc, at least in terms of who got the ball to hand in the right spot. It just didn't translate to enough scoreboard pressure to survive that second-term concession.

Where Gold Coast made it count was the other side of the ball. Seventy intercepts to 55, 112 marks to 97, and a disposal efficiency edge of 77.3% to 74.7%. St Kilda's forward-line rating of 1008 was the stronger of the two coming in, well clear of Gold Coast's 912, but a defence rated at 1113 against 1084 read the ball better all day and made St Kilda work for every entry that didn

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 7 | 39 | 14 | 29 | 89 |
| St Kilda | 32 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 60 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **375** | Disposals | 356 |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **119** |
| 21 | Clearances | **39** |
| **48** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **112** | Marks | 97 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 41 | Tackles | **44** |
| 24 | Hit-outs | **29** |
| **70** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **77.3%** | Disposal eff. | 74.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 29 points. Gold Coast SUNS led 46–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 29. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 192.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.38 (edge -22.3%) — model probability 50.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 192.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 3 · Predicted total: 142

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Gold Coast SUNS and St Kilda. The model can't split them, landing on Gold Coast SUNS at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Gold Coast SUNS sit 82 ELO points clear, 1586 to 1504. Form leans St Kilda's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Gold Coast SUNS.

Gold Coast SUNS own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO. The margin model has Gold Coast SUNS by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 142. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 84.4pts | Avg Score | 102.8pts |
| 98.8pts | Avg Conceded | 78.8pts |
| -14.4pts | Avg Margin | 24.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W | 84.4 |
| St Kilda | R3 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 102.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 92 · 64 | 77 · 68 |
| Goal Assists | 6.6/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.3/g | 16.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.1/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 67.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 23 | 25 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 149/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.9/g | 23.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 11 | 9 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.8/g | 11.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.7% | 77.9% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.7/g (lg 2.49) +8% · Key Forwards 3.76/g (lg 3.81) -1% · Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.46) -5%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.15) +4% · Midfielders 2.52/g (lg 2.49) +1% · Forwards 4.45/g (lg 4.46) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 28 in 8g | 30/10g (0·2·4·5·7·3·2·3·2·2) | 13/7g | 17/7g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' 80' 88' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 12 in 6g | 15/10g (1·1·0·1·3·4·0·3·0·2) | 23/15g | 2/4g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 69% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 11 in 8g | 13/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·3·2·2·0) | 4/4g | 9/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 9 in 8g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·4·3·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 6 in 5g | 13/10g (3·0·1·3·0·4·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 9/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | KF | 4 in 2g | 22/10g (4·4·4·2·1·3·0·0·1·3) | 3/2g | 3/1g | 84% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 3/10g | 2/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 4/7g | 42% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 4/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (3·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 7/9g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/1g | 47% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 30% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 2/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Ben Jepson | MID | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 14 in 8g | 15/10g (0·1·2·2·1·2·2·2·0·3) | 4/4g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 11 in 8g | 16/10g (3·2·2·0·0·3·1·1·2·2) | 6/2g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 9 in 8g | 11/10g (0·2·1·4·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 6/10g | 0/0g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/14g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 4 in 7g | 10/10g (0·1·5·0·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 21' 26' 77' 61' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 3 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·3) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 28.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 31 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 31 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca | 26.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 23 ✓ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 31 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 29 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.94 | 77% | 28 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 22 ✗ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Mac Andrew | 17.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 22 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 75% | 28 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 5 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 23.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.75 | 80% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 22 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 21.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Max Hall | 16.5 | $1.94 | 58% | 23 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Gold Coast SUNS 1586 · St Kilda 1504 · ELO difference: 82 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Gold Coast SUNS | St Kilda | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1112 (best 1475) | 1091 (best 1253) | Gold Coast SUNS +20 |
| Forwards | 912 (best 1418) | 1008 (best 1493) | St Kilda +96 |
| Defence | 1113 (best 1463) | 1084 (best 1418) | Gold Coast SUNS +29 |
| Ruck | 1150 (best 1341) | 1138 (best 1457) | Gold Coast SUNS +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | St Kilda |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 142 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-09 14:08 UTC (latest tip update)