# Geelong Cats v Collingwood — AFL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 122 – 68 Collingwood

_Geelong Cats put Collingwood to the sword._

Half time: 48 – 38 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 57% / Collingwood 43% · MCG · Sat, 09 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Shannon Neale (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Martin (9' ×2), Oliver Henry (16' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Brad Close (19' ×2), Jeremy Cameron (68' Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (32m 35s)Shaun Mannagh (61'), Patrick Dangerfield (63' ×2), Jack Bowes (93') · Collingwood: Daniel McStay (6' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Daicos (12'), Jack Buller (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Scott Pendlebury (52'), Lachie Schultz (72'), Angus Anderson (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 57% | Won |
| Collingwood | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 May 2026, 06:54 pm · Last updated: 9 May 2026, 11:07 pm_

Geelong Cats 122–68 Collingwood in AFL Round 9 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats beat Collingwood 122 to 68 at the MCG, a 54 point margin that reads like a hiding from start to finish. It wasn't. At half time it was 48 to 38, a ten point game, the kind of margin that has the away fans still believing at the break. Whatever happened after the main break turned a contest into a procession.

Break it down quarter by quarter and the shift is obvious. Geelong led 33 to 22 at quarter time, 48 to 38 at half time, meaning Collingwood actually won the second term outright, 16 to 15. Then the third quarter arrived and Geelong scored 28 points to Collingwood's 6, blowing the margin from ten out to thirty two by the last change. The final quarter was one-way traffic too, 46 to 24, pushing it out to the eventual 54.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests once it turned. Geelong finished with 427 disposals to Collingwood's 413, not a huge gap, but they used it better: 74.7 per cent disposal efficiency against Collingwood's 71.2. Geelong also won the marking battle comfortably, 118 to 101, and were sharper inside forward 50, taking 21 marks there to Collingwood's 18.

Here's the complicating number, though. Collingwood actually went inside 50 more often, 59 times to Geelong's 52.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 33 | 15 | 28 | 46 | 122 |
| Collingwood | 22 | 16 | 6 | 24 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **427** | Disposals | 413 |
| **126** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| 35 | Clearances | 35 |
| 52 | Inside 50s | **59** |
| **118** | Marks | 101 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 18 |
| 46 | Tackles | **56** |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| 67 | Intercepts | **69** |
| **74.7%** | Disposal eff. | 71.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.7 but the actual margin was 54 points. The game's 190 points came in 52 points higher than the predicted 138. Geelong Cats led 48–38 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.50 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 5 · Predicted total: 138

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Geelong Cats are the call at 57%, but Collingwood stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Geelong Cats sit 76 ELO points clear, 1676 to 1600. Form leans Geelong Cats' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Collingwood.

Geelong Cats own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Geelong Cats by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 138. Lean Geelong Cats, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 108.8pts | Avg Score | 84.4pts |
| 81.0pts | Avg Conceded | 80.0pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | R4 L · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W | 108.8 |
| Collingwood | R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 D | 84.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 81 · 75 | 72 · 68 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.3/g | 20.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.8/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 63.6% | 70.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 18 | 24 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 149/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.9/g | 18.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 73.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 7 | 2 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.4/g | 11.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.4% | 81.1% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.5) +10% · Defenders 1.16/g (lg 1.15) +1% · Midfielders 2.29/g (lg 2.5) -8%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.95/g (lg 3.81) +4% · Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.44) -5% · Midfielders 2.2/g (lg 2.5) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 23 in 7g | 28/10g (2·3·0·3·0·1·3·10·3·3) | 61/17g | 128/47g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 18 in 8g | 20/10g (1·1·1·5·0·4·2·1·2·3) | 3/3g | 15/12g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 70' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 10 in 7g | 12/10g (0·1·1·2·1·3·2·1·0·1) | 9/4g | 51/31g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 22' 79' 91' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (2·1·1·3·1·0·0·0·1·4) | 3/2g | 15/11g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 75' |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 9 in 7g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·2) | 14/11g | 36/35g | 72% | — | 🏉 9' 53' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 9 in 8g | 13/10g (0·4·4·0·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 3/2g | 23/17g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 5 in 4g | 12/10g (1·1·2·0·3·0·1·2·1·1) | 16/19g | 58/67g | 68% | — | 🏉 63' 77' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 9/22g | 56% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 9/18g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 5/7g | 25/34g | 50% | — | 🏉 19' 38' |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 22/59g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/40g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/7g | 20/33g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/12g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jake Kolodjashnij | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/12g | 0/53g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 3/53g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 4/39g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 25/53g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/13g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/45g | 10% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 13 in 8g | 14/10g (0·1·1·0·2·4·1·2·2·1) | 10/13g | 49/44g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 41' 89' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 13 in 8g | 21/10g (4·4·1·2·1·1·0·3·2·3) | 26/17g | 229/139g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 9 in 7g | 11/10g (1·1·0·3·0·0·1·0·3·2) | 18/14g | 129/118g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 8 in 8g | 9/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 42/36g | 70% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 4/4g | 46/61g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·2·2·0·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 37/64g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 75% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Oscar Steene | RUC | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (1·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/19g | 53/159g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/27g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/7g | 31/63g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 15/19g | 82/188g | 18% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 2 in 7g | 6/10g (1·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/17g | 107/186g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/15g | 16/144g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 8/35g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 39/75g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 1 in 3g | 11/10g (2·2·0·1·1·1·3·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 82' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/33g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 39/114g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/81g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/14g | 56/166g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 30/92g | 4% | — | 🏉 12' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 33.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 40 ✗ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 33 ✗ |
| Tanner Bruhn ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.93 | 78% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 22.5 | $1.93 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 19.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 19.5 | $1.91 | 47% | 12 ✓ |
| Jack Bowes ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 17.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 25 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 29 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 25 ✓ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 27 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 22.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 18 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 17.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 21 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 30 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard | 17.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 25 ✗ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 16.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Geelong Cats 1676 · Collingwood 1600 · ELO difference: 76 in favour of Geelong Cats

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Geelong Cats | Collingwood | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1085 (best 1478) | 1043 (best 1258) | Geelong Cats +42 |
| Forwards | 981 (best 1472) | 1005 (best 1480) | Collingwood +23 |
| Defence | 1093 (best 1600) | 1102 (best 1301) | Collingwood +9 |
| Ruck | 1104 (best 1302) | 1170 (best 1328) | Collingwood +66 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Geelong Cats |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Geelong Cats |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Geelong Cats |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Collingwood |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Geelong Cats |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Geelong Cats predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 138 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-09 13:07 UTC (latest tip update)