Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.7 but the actual margin was 54 points. The game's 190 points came in 52 points higher than the predicted 138. Geelong Cats led 48–38 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
57%
Collingwood
43%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Collingwood are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Geelong Cats carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1676 vs 1600). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 4.7 points with a combined total of 138.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.3%
Line / Spread
Collingwood +12.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.8%
Margin Band
Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | R4W R5L R6W R7W R8L older → newer | 95.4 |
Collingwood | R4L R5W R6W R7L R8L | 83.2 |
Avg Conceded
75.8
Geelong Cats
72.2
Collingwood
Avg Margin
19.6
Geelong Cats
11.0
Collingwood
Disposals
350.0
Geelong Cats
350.0
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 138 · Line: +4.7
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.