# Fremantle v Hawthorn — AFL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 88 – 73 Hawthorn

_Fremantle surge back to stun Hawthorn._

Half time: 44 – 59 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 56% / Hawthorn 44% · Optus Stadium · Thu, 07 May, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Patrick Voss (3' Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (6' ×3), Isaiah Dudley (22' Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (37' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (49'), Hayden Young (89') · Hawthorn: Nick Watson (1' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (8' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Sam Butler (12'), Mitch Lewis (67' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 56% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.8 predicted → 15 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 9, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 May 2026, 06:54 pm · Last updated: 7 May 2026, 11:07 pm_

Fremantle 88–73 Hawthorn in AFL Round 9 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle were down 44 to 59 at half time and looked to be donating Hawthorn a comfortable buffer. By the last change it had blown out further, 67 to 52, and nothing about the shape of the game suggested a home win was coming. Then the final quarter happened. Fremantle put on 36 points to Hawthorn's 6 in the last term, turning a 15 point deficit into a 15 point win. Final score: Fremantle 88, Hawthorn 73 at Optus Stadium.

Go quarter by quarter and the story is one of stasis followed by an explosion. Fremantle led 28 to 26 at the first change, a tight opening term. Hawthorn then took over in the second quarter, outscoring the home side 33 to 16 to open up that half time gap. The third quarter changed nothing at all: both sides kicked exactly 8 points, so the margin sat frozen at 15 for a full quarter. Three quarters played, and the game was still where it had been since early in the second term.

Then the last 30 minutes flipped it completely. Fremantle's clearance work explains a lot of it. They won clearances 41 to 29 for the match, and with a midfield rated 1108 against Hawthorn's 1082 coming in, that edge was always on the cards, it just took three quarters to show up on the scoreboard. Fremantle also went inside 50 fifty-six times to Hawthorn's 41, and when they got there they made it count: 14 marks inside forward 50 to Hawthorn's 9. That's the gap between camping in your forward line and actually doing something with it.

Hawthorn had more of the footy overall. They finished with 351 disposals to 329, won

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 28 | 16 | 8 | 36 | 88 |
| Hawthorn | 26 | 33 | 8 | 6 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Disposals | **351** |
| 114 | Contested poss. | **124** |
| **41** | Clearances | 29 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 41 |
| 79 | Marks | **89** |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **58** | Tackles | 42 |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| **58** | Intercepts | 54 |
| **77.5%** | Disposal eff. | 76.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 3.8 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. Fremantle trailed 44–59 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 88–73. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 180.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.68 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 56.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +5.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 4 · Predicted total: 147

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Fremantle are the call at 56%, but Hawthorn stay live at 44%. The ratings say otherwise: Hawthorn sit 93 ELO points clear, 1792 to 1699, so the model is backing Fremantle against the ratings gap. Form leans Fremantle's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Hawthorn.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Fremantle by 3.8, with the two sides combining for about 147. Lean Fremantle, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 87.4pts | Avg Score | 98.0pts |
| 69.4pts | Avg Conceded | 79.4pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Margin | 18.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W | 87.4 |
| Hawthorn | R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 D | 98.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 68 · 52 | 97 · 71 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 84/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.8/g | 21.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10/g | 11.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.5% | 69.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 39 · 21 | 16 · 31 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 171/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.8/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 71.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 6 | 6 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.9/g | 16.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.4% | 82.5% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.53/g (lg 2.49) +2% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.47) -9% · Key Forwards 3.39/g (lg 3.8) -11%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.2/g (lg 4.47) -6% · Midfielders 2.24/g (lg 2.49) -10% · Defenders 1/g (lg 1.15) -13%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 19 in 8g | 24/10g (3·2·2·4·4·2·0·1·3·3) | 7/6g | 77/47g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 77' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 17 in 8g | 21/10g (3·1·1·0·2·4·2·5·3·0) | 9/4g | 68/43g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 77' 83' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 11 in 8g | 13/10g (0·2·3·3·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 16/14g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (2·1·2·2·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 13/10g | 39/27g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 7 in 8g | 10/10g (2·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 4/7g | 42/46g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 7 in 7g | 13/10g (0·3·3·0·1·1·2·0·3·0) | 2/2g | 27/20g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 27/71g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 8/7g | 40/58g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 33/93g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 4 in 4g | 8/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 0/4g | 14/46g | 36% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 16/18g | 62% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/34g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 3 in 3g | 11/10g (0·4·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·1) | 6/6g | 67/59g | 64% | — | 🏉 6' 82' 86' |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 5/6g | 12/10g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/28g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 2/42g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 9/57g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/66g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 21/71g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/26g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/94g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 24 in 7g | 35/10g (3·5·3·4·5·4·3·3·5·0) | 19/12g | 14/8g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 19' 40' 42' 45' 73' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 20 in 8g | 23/10g (2·1·2·4·1·3·1·5·2·2) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 1' 35' 51' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 13 in 8g | 16/10g (0·3·1·0·1·2·3·3·1·2) | 6/3g | 3/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 9 in 8g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 6/3g | 5/4g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·1·3·0·2·1·1) | 9/7g | 8/5g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·3) | 3/4g | 4/3g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 1/4g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/14g | 1/65g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bodie Ryan | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 2/8g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/8g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Ramsden | KF | no games | 5/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 22 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 72% | 19 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 23.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 24 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 80% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 85% | 15 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 17.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 22 ✗ |
| Karl Worner ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 14 ✓ |
| Corey Wagner | 16.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 15 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 24.5 | $1.89 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Karl Amon ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 31 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 77% | 22 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 79% | 12 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $2.05 | 64% | 21 ✗ |
| Josh Battle ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 72% | 24 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 20.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 22 ✗ |
| Conor Nash ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 14 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.80 | 82% | 20 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 14 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 17.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 16 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1792 vs 1699), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.68). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1699 · Hawthorn 1792 · ELO difference: 93 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1108 (best 1515) | 1082 (best 1238) | Fremantle +26 |
| Forwards | 1017 (best 1397) | 1058 (best 1480) | Hawthorn +41 |
| Defence | 1120 (best 1377) | 1094 (best 1402) | Fremantle +25 |
| Ruck | 1165 (best 1341) | 1084 (best 1256) | Fremantle +81 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Fremantle |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 147 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-07 13:07 UTC (latest tip update)