Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 3.8 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. Fremantle trailed 44–59 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 88–73. The model went 3/4 on this match. The under 180.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
56%
Hawthorn
44%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 44%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Hawthorn carry a 93-point ELO rating advantage (1792 vs 1699). Recent form favours Fremantle with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 3.8 points with a combined total of 147.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.68
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.5%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +5.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.7%
Margin Band
Fremantle 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | R4W R5W R6W R7W R8W older → newer | 85.2 |
Hawthorn | R4L R5W R6W R7W R8W | 99.2 |
Avg Conceded
57.6
Fremantle
77.2
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
27.6
Fremantle
22.0
Hawthorn
Disposals
350.0
Fremantle
350.0
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1792 vs 1699), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.68).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Fremantle predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 147 · Line: +3.8
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.