# Brisbane Lions v Carlton — AFL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 100 – 89 Carlton

_Brisbane Lions hold off a fast-finishing Carlton._

Half time: 56 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 57% / Carlton 43% · Gabba · Fri, 08 May, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (15' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Levi Ashcroft (25' ×2), Charlie Cameron (27' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Draper (33'), Darcy Fort (42'), Kai Lohmann (63' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Hugh McCluggage (70'), Lachie Neale (88') · Carlton: Will Hayward (18' ×3), Ben Ainsworth (73' ×2), Jagga Smith (78'), Patrick Cripps (83'), Mitch McGovern (90' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Harry McKay (61' ×3 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 57% | Won |
| Carlton | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 9, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 May 2026, 06:54 pm · Last updated: 8 May 2026, 11:13 pm_

Brisbane Lions 100–89 Carlton in AFL Round 9 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions beat Carlton 100-89 at the Gabba, and that 11-point margin undersells how strange this one actually was. At half time the Lions led 56-18, a 38-point gap that normally means the contest is over as a spectacle. It wasn't, not really, because Carlton spent the second half clawing at a lead that had already done its damage.

By three-quarter time Brisbane's lead had shrunk to 20, 77-57, and the last quarter went to Carlton, who added 32 to Brisbane's 23. Add it up: Carlton won the second half of footy comfortably. They just started so far underwater that it barely mattered on the scoreboard.

The first half explains why Brisbane got that far clear. The ruck battle was one-sided all day, 53 hit-outs to 30, and Brisbane fed off it. Clearances went 43-32 their way and they laid 50 tackles to Carlton's 38, the kind of pressure numbers that suggest they controlled territory and contest early when it counted most.

But look at the full-game numbers and the story gets murkier. Carlton actually won the disposal count, 392 to 347, and had the better efficiency by a fraction, 76.0% to 75.2%. They also went inside 50 more often, 59 times to Brisbane's 54, and contested possessions favoured Carlton too, 128 to 108. On paper, a lot of that reads like a team that should have been in the contest all afternoon, not one that trailed by 38 at the main break.

The gap that decided it was inside forward 50. Carlton were far cleaner there, marking the ball 20 times inside their attacking zone compared to Brisbane's 10. That's usually the number that wins games. It didn't here, because Brisbane had already banked such a lead in the first half that Carlton's improved ball use in the second and third terms couldn't do more than trim the margin.

Intercepts were almost dead even, 57 for Carlton to 56 for Brisbane, which fits with a game that swung hard in its shape without ever really swinging in its outcome. Brisbane came in with the form and the numbers to back it: four wins from their last five, an average winning margin of almost 39 points, compared to Carlton's five straight losses and an average losing margin of 19. On paper this was always tipped as a home win, and Alphr's model had Brisbane favoured by 7.5 points. The final margin, 11, wasn't far off that read at all, even if the total score of 189 blew past the predicted 147 by 42 points.

That's really the story of this game: a lopsided start that Brisbane never fully protected, and a Carlton fightback that arrived a half too late. Brisbane's dominance in the ruck and at the clearances built an unassailable buffer early, Carlton's improved disposal numbers and forward-50 efficiency chipped away at it late, and neither team could shift the other's grip on their respective half of the match. Brisbane hangs on for the 11-point win, but the shape of it, 38 points up at the half, only 11 up at the death, tells you this was two different games stitched together.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 29 | 27 | 21 | 23 | 100 |
| Carlton | 15 | 3 | 39 | 32 | 89 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 347 | Disposals | **392** |
| 108 | Contested poss. | **128** |
| **43** | Clearances | 32 |
| 54 | Inside 50s | **59** |
| **99** | Marks | 95 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **20** |
| **50** | Tackles | 38 |
| **53** | Hit-outs | 30 |
| 56 | Intercepts | **57** |
| 75.2% | Disposal eff. | **76.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 57% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 7.5 vs the actual margin of 11 points. The game's 189 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 147. The model went 3/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 43.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.09 (edge -34.3%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +43.5 @ $1.90 (edge +36.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 147

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Brisbane Lions are the call at 57%, but Carlton stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Brisbane Lions sit 491 ELO points clear, 1756 to 1264. Form leans Brisbane Lions' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Carlton.

Brisbane Lions own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Brisbane Lions by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 147. Lean Brisbane Lions, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 116.6pts | Avg Score | 82.6pts |
| 77.8pts | Avg Conceded | 101.8pts |
| 38.8pts | Avg Margin | -19.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 116.6 |
| Carlton | R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 82.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 97 · 64 | 63 · 78 |
| Goal Assists | 6.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.6/g | 16/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.8/g | 7.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.5% | 69.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 27 | 22 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 165/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.6/g | 21.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 68.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 5 · 3 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.5/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.4% | 76.6% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.5) +42% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.15) +10% · Forwards 4.71/g (lg 4.47) +5%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.5) +0% · Forwards 4.23/g (lg 4.47) -5% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.48) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 18 in 8g | 23/10g (1·4·4·2·2·0·1·3·4·2) | 21/12g | 177/94g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 44' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 17 in 7g | 21/10g (2·1·1·3·2·3·0·3·2·4) | 4/2g | 41/22g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 15' 20' 52' 76' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 16 in 8g | 19/10g (1·2·2·1·2·4·1·1·1·4) | 3/3g | 34/28g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 62' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 14 in 7g | 22/10g (3·2·3·1·2·2·2·0·3·4) | 11/8g | 85/85g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 87% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (2·1·1·1·2·0·1·2·1·2) | 9/9g | 79/85g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lincoln McCarthy | FWD | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·2·1·0·0) | 10/7g | 83/65g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/15g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 4 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·2) | 2/7g | 9/26g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 4 in 5g | 11/10g (2·0·0·1·4·0·0·1·2·1) | 5/11g | 70/105g | 50% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 3/8g | 54% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 8g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 14/30g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 8/24g | 22% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 17/17g | 132/155g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 12/35g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/35g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 8/41g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/17g | 38/83g | 26% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/15g | 31% | — | 🏉 25' 79' |
| – | Cody Curtin | KF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darragh Joyce | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 4/119g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 7/44g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 23/115g | 2% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 16 in 8g | 18/10g (1·1·0·2·3·2·2·3·3·1) | 4/10g | 0/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' 91' 85' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 14 in 8g | 14/10g (0·0·1·1·0·3·0·2·4·3) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 9 in 8g | 10/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·2·2·0·2) | 17/17g | 7/12g | 64% | — | 🏉 73' 85' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 8 in 7g | 19/10g (3·7·1·1·2·1·2·1·1·0) | 20/9g | 17/8g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' 81' 92' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 4 in 6g | 15/10g (2·4·2·3·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 13/14g | 5/11g | 40% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 3 in 7g | 8/10g (3·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 14/10g | 7/8g | 66% | — | 🏉 18' 29' 87' |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 4/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 5/8g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 4/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 3/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/8g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 30.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 33 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 23 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 25 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 22.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 20 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 21.5 | $1.77 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 20.5 | $1.77 | 60% | 12 ✓ |
| Keidean Coleman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 19 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 27.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 29 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 22.5 | $1.95 | 51% | 32 ✗ |
| Nic Newman | 22.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 22 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 16 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 21.5 | $1.93 | 41% | 20 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 20.5 | $2.00 | 52% | 23 ✗ |
| Jagga Smith | 19.5 | $1.80 | 49% | 25 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 16.5 | $1.86 | 43% | 23 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 16.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 14 ✓ |
| Zac Williams | 16.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 10 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Brisbane Lions 1756 · Carlton 1264 · ELO difference: 491 in favour of Brisbane Lions

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Brisbane Lions | Carlton | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1125 (best 1600) | 1082 (best 1351) | Brisbane Lions +43 |
| Forwards | 1030 (best 1600) | 1010 (best 1523) | Brisbane Lions +20 |
| Defence | 1113 (best 1463) | 1115 (best 1392) | Carlton +2 |
| Ruck | 1076 (best 1323) | 1117 (best 1191) | Carlton +40 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 147 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-08 13:13 UTC (latest tip update)