AFL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

Thu 7 May8:10pm
FREFRE
HAWHAW
Fri 8 May7:30pm
BRIBRI
CARCAR
Fri 8 May8:10pm
PORPOR
WBDWBD
Sat 9 May1:15pm
NORNOR
SYDSYD
Sat 9 May4:15pm
GWSGWS
ESSESS
Sat 9 May7:10pm
GCSGCS
STKSTK
Sat 9 May7:35pm
GEEGEE
COLCOL
Sun 10 May1:10pm
MELMEL
WCEWCE
Sun 10 May3:15pm
RICRIC
ADEADE
BRI
Brisbane Lions
VS
CAR
Carlton
GABBA • FRIDAY 8 MAY, 7:30 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 57% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Brisbane Lions by 7.5 vs the actual margin of 11 points. The game's 189 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 147. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

57%Brisbane LionsFavourite

Brisbane Lions

57%

Carlton

43%

✨

AI Match Overview

Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 491-point ELO rating advantage (1756 vs 1264). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 7.5 points with a combined total of 147.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Brisbane Lions to Win @1.09

Winner ✓

Edge

-34.3%

✓

Line / Spread

Carlton +43.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+36.0%

✓

Margin Band

Brisbane Lions 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 186.5 @1.86

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.2%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Brisbane Lions
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8W

older → newer

110.6
Carlton
R4L
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L
84.2

Avg Conceded

78.0

Brisbane Lions

100.2

Carlton

Avg Margin

32.6

Brisbane Lions

-16.0

Carlton

Disposals

350.0

Brisbane Lions

350.0

Carlton

Inside 50s

50.0

Brisbane Lions

50.0

Carlton

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRI
1756Overall1264
CAR
ELO difference: +491 in favour of Brisbane Lions

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1125Midfield1082
Best: 1600BRI +43Best: 1351
1030Forwards1010
Best: 1600BRI +20Best: 1523
1113Defence1115
Best: 1463EvenBest: 1392
1076Ruck1117
Best: 1323CAR +40Best: 1191

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRI
Stat
CAR
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
110.6pts
Avg Score
84.2pts
78.0pts
Avg Conceded
100.2pts
32.6pts
Avg Margin
-16.0pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Lions
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Lions
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Lions
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Lions
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
—
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Lions
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Lions

Model Confidence

57%

Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 147 · Line: +7.5

3/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props