Win Probability
AI Game Review
Fremantle defied the model's 53% prediction for Western Bulldogs — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.0 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 216 points came in 81 points higher than the predicted 135. Fremantle trailed 60–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 102–114. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
53%
Fremantle
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Western Bulldogs a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Fremantle are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO — but Western Bulldogs counter with Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Fremantle carry a 135-point ELO rating advantage (1676 vs 1541). Recent form favours Fremantle with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 9.0 points with a combined total of 135.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @3.12
Lost ✗
Edge
+20.6%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +19.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+28.5%
Margin Band
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 185.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | R2W R4W R5L R6L R7L older → newer | 89.4 |
Fremantle | R3W R4W R5W R6W R7W | 88.2 |
Avg Conceded
88.2
Western Bulldogs
53.8
Fremantle
Avg Margin
1.2
Western Bulldogs
34.4
Fremantle
Disposals
350.0
Western Bulldogs
350.0
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 135 · Line: +9.0
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.