# West Coast Eagles v Richmond — AFL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 88 – 99 Richmond

_Richmond hold off a fast-finishing West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 42 – 52 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 58% / Richmond 42% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 02 May, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Harley Reid (1' 1st), Matthew Owies (18'), Malakai Champion (35'), Jake Waterman (40' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ryan Maric (56'), Tim Kelly (76'), Jobe Shanahan (82' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (33m 16s)Elliot Yeo (62'), Bailey Williams (76'), Willem Duursma (92') · Richmond: Seth Campbell (7' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jonty Faull (15' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mykelti Lefau (27' Tipped ⚡), Tom Lynch (54' Tipped ⚡), Noah Balta (60' ×3), Steely Green (67' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kane McAuliffe (74'), Tyler Sonsie (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 58% | Lost |
| Richmond | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 19.2 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 8, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 May 2026, 08:41 am · Last updated: 2 May 2026, 08:07 pm_

West Coast Eagles 88–99 Richmond in AFL Round 8 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond led at every change, but it was the third quarter that made this one interesting. West Coast Eagles clawed a ten-point deficit back to four, winning that term 21 to 15 and giving Optus Stadium something to get excited about. Then Richmond answered instantly, piling on 32 points to West Coast Eagles' 25 in the last quarter to push the margin back out to 11 and close the game out 99–88.

That late Richmond surge is really the story. West Coast Eagles had the ball in dangerous territory all night, 59 inside 50s to Richmond's 43, and led the tackle count 57 to 49. On paper that's a side dominating field position. But territory without conversion is just running up and down the ground, and that's exactly what happened.

The gap that mattered was inside the arc. Richmond turned their 43 forward entries into 15 marks inside 50, West Coast Eagles managed only 10 from 59. That's the difference between a side finishing its work and a side just generating chances. Richmond's marks inside 50 efficiency did the damage that raw inside 50 counts couldn't paper over.

Everywhere else the two sides were almost identical. Disposals were 334 to 333, contested possessions locked at 136 apiece, clearances tied at 38, disposal efficiency within two-tenths of a per cent. It was as even a stat sheet as you'll see in a 187-point game. West Coast Eagles even won the intercept count, 68 to 61. None of it mattered as much as what happened once the ball got inside 50.

Richmond's edge in the ruck battle, 35 hit-outs to 32, and their slightly better hit-out numbers lined up with the pre-match ratings, where Richmond went in rated stronger at 1066 to 1084 in West Coast Eagles' favour, actually the wrong way round, Richmond's ruck rating of 1066 trailed West Coast Eagles' 1084, yet they still won the hit-out count. Their midfield rating edge, 1099 to 1081, showed up more in the way they controlled the ball once it hit the ground than in raw clearance numbers, which finished dead level at 38 apiece.

Form lines going in had Richmond winless in their last five and West Coast Eagles with a single win, so neither side arrived flush with confidence. West Coast Eagles' defence rated well above Richmond's, 1151 to 1108, and it showed in patches, particularly the third-quarter stand. But a defence rating built on limiting scoring chances doesn't count for much when the opposition is this clean going in.

Alphr's model had West Coast Eagles favourites at 58%, expected to win by 19.2 points on a combined total of 142. Richmond flipped that on its head, winning by 11 and pushing the total out to 187, some 45 points over the projection. The model went 1 from 4 on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

Richmond's third and fourth quarters told the real story: absorb the pressure, let the home side believe

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 14 | 28 | 21 | 25 | 88 |
| Richmond | 21 | 31 | 15 | 32 | 99 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **334** | Disposals | 333 |
| 136 | Contested poss. | 136 |
| 38 | Clearances | 38 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| 88 | Marks | **90** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| **57** | Tackles | 49 |
| 32 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| **68** | Intercepts | 61 |
| 72.2% | Disposal eff. | **72.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Richmond defied the model's 58% prediction for West Coast Eagles, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 19.2 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 187 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 142. The model went 1/4 on this match. Richmond covered the 19.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $1.36 (edge -15.8%) — model probability 57.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +19.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 19 · Predicted total: 142

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

West Coast Eagles are the call at 58%, but Richmond stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: West Coast Eagles sit 64 ELO points clear, 1163 to 1099. Form leans West Coast Eagles' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Richmond.

West Coast Eagles own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model has West Coast Eagles by 19.2, with the two sides combining for about 142. Lean West Coast Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 57.2pts | Avg Score | 58.6pts |
| 123.0pts | Avg Conceded | 116.0pts |
| -65.8pts | Avg Margin | -57.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 57.2 |
| Richmond | R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 58.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 34 · 81 | 46 · 84 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 76/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.7/g | 18.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.4/g | 8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 69.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 29 | 8 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.4/g | 18/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 69.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 15 | 5 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.9/g | 11.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.92/g (lg 3.79) +30% · Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.49) +22% · Midfielders 2.91/g (lg 2.49) +17%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.75/g (lg 0.49) +53% · Midfielders 3.53/g (lg 2.49) +42% · Forwards 5.57/g (lg 4.46) +25%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 12 in 7g | 18/10g (1·2·3·3·1·4·1·1·1·1) | 11/8g | 96/62g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 90' 72' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 8 in 7g | 14/10g (3·0·3·1·2·0·0·4·0·1) | 1/1g | 11/8g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 7 in 5g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·2·1·1·1) | 6/10g | 25/60g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 6 in 7g | 6/7g (0·2·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/3g | 57% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 0/2g | 10/24g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 4 in 7g | 9/10g (1·2·2·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 4/3g | 15/24g | 44% | — | 🏉 1' |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.73 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Schoenberg | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 6/7g | 8/12g | 58% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 18/43g | 28% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/43g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 12/21g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 4/84g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/36g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/25g | 16% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 23/65g | 14% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/65g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 8 in 7g | 13/10g (0·3·2·0·3·0·0·1·2·2) | 4/3g | 2/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 67' 93' |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 7 in 6g | 12/10g (1·2·2·0·1·0·0·4·0·2) | 3/1g | 3/2g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·0·3·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' 86' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 3 in 3g | 16/10g (2·0·3·1·1·3·3·2·0·1) | 35/11g | 14/5g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/7g | 2/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 3/2g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 42' 49' |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 6/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 7% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 2/8g | 30% | — | 🏉 60' 62' 65' |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 3/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/10g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hayes-Brown | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 88' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | 24.5 | $1.77 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.85 | 74% | 23 ✓ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 87% | 17 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 30 ✗ |
| Elliot Yeo ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 21.5 | $1.79 | 61% | 18 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 21.5 | $1.80 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 18.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 20 ✗ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.83 | 65% | 8 ✓ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 25.5 | $1.81 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 0 ✓ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 29 ✗ |
| Kane McAuliffe ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 28 ✗ |
| Patrick Retschko | 20.5 | $1.86 | 51% | 9 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 9 ✓ |
| Tyler Sonsie | 18.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| Nathan Broad ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 15 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — West Coast Eagles 1163 · Richmond 1099 · ELO difference: 64 in favour of West Coast Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | West Coast Eagles | Richmond | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1081 (best 1297) | 1099 (best 1475) | Richmond +18 |
| Forwards | 977 (best 1297) | 986 (best 1491) | Richmond +9 |
| Defence | 1151 (best 1414) | 1108 (best 1589) | West Coast Eagles +43 |
| Ruck | 1084 (best 1141) | 1066 (best 1392) | West Coast Eagles +17 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Richmond |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Richmond |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 19 points · Predicted total: 142 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-02 10:07 UTC (latest tip update)