Win Probability
AI Game Review
Richmond defied the model's 58% prediction for West Coast Eagles — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 19.2 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 187 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 142. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
58%
Richmond
42%
AI Match Overview
West Coast Eagles hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Richmond are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees West Coast Eagles ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 19.2 points with a combined total of 142.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
West Coast Eagles to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-15.8%
Line / Spread
Richmond +19.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.3%
Margin Band
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 182.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | W W L L L | 82.3 |
Richmond | W W L L L | 86.7 |
Avg Conceded
82.1
West Coast Eagles
77.8
Richmond
Avg Margin
20.7
West Coast Eagles
-0.4
Richmond
Disposals
340.9
West Coast Eagles
345.2
Richmond
Inside 50s
50.3
West Coast Eagles
51.9
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 19 points
Predicted total: 142 · Line: +19.2
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.