# Sydney Swans v Melbourne — AFL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Sydney Swans v Melbourne
Sun, 03 May, 03:15 pm AEST · SCG · Round 8

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.15 (edge -22.6%) — model probability 64.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +35.5 @ $1.90 (edge +26.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 9 · Predicted total: 142

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 115.6pts | Avg Score | 101.4pts |
| 65.6pts | Avg Conceded | 90.6pts |
| 50.0pts | Avg Margin | 10.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | R2 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 W | 115.6 |
| Melbourne | R3 W · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W | 101.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-03 08:21 UTC (latest tip update)