Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
64%
Melbourne
36%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Scoring Form. Sydney Swans carry a 332-point ELO rating advantage (1787 vs 1455). The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 9.0 points with a combined total of 142.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.15
Winner ✓
Edge
-22.6%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +35.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+26.5%
Margin Band
Sydney Swans 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 189.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | R2L R4W R5W R6W R7W older → newer | 111.2 |
Melbourne | R3W R4W R5L R6W R7W | 90.2 |
Avg Conceded
65.6
Sydney Swans
99.8
Melbourne
Avg Margin
45.6
Sydney Swans
-9.6
Melbourne
Disposals
350.0
Sydney Swans
350.0
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Sydney Swans
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 142 · Line: +9.0
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.