AFL | Round 8

alphr.com.au

Thu 30 Apr7:30pm
COLCOL
HAWHAW
Fri 1 May7:30pm
WBDWBD
FREFRE
Fri 1 May8:10pm
ADEADE
PORPOR
Sat 2 May12:35pm
ESSESS
BRIBRI
Sat 2 May4:15pm
WCEWCE
RICRIC
Sat 2 May4:35pm
GEEGEE
NORNOR
Sat 2 May7:35pm
CARCAR
STKSTK
Sun 3 May3:15pm
SYDSYD
MELMEL
Sun 3 May7:20pm
GCSGCS
GWSGWS
GCS
Gold Coast SUNS
VS
GWS
GWS GIANTS
PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM • SUNDAY 3 MAY, 7:20 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Gold Coast SUNS defied the model's 50% prediction for GWS GIANTS — a notable result. The predicted margin of 14.4 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Gold Coast SUNS led 32–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 185.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

50%Gold Coast SUNSFavourite

Gold Coast SUNS

50%

GWS GIANTS

50%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives GWS GIANTS a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Gold Coast SUNS are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Scoring Form — but GWS GIANTS counter with Forward Line ELO and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1498). The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 14.4 points with a combined total of 138.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

GWS GIANTS to Win @2.41

Lost ✗

Edge

+8.9%

✗

Line / Spread

Gold Coast SUNS -10.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+3.9%

✓

Margin Band

Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 185.5 @1.89

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.1%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Gold Coast SUNS
R2W
R4L
R5L
R6W
R7L

older → newer

107.0
GWS GIANTS
R2L
R3L
R5W
R6L
R7W
75.6

Avg Conceded

90.2

Gold Coast SUNS

96.2

GWS GIANTS

Avg Margin

16.8

Gold Coast SUNS

-20.6

GWS GIANTS

Disposals

350.0

Gold Coast SUNS

350.0

GWS GIANTS

Inside 50s

50.0

Gold Coast SUNS

50.0

GWS GIANTS

H2H History (Last 5)GWS GIANTS lead 5-0
Aug 2025GCS 76 - 111 GWS
Jun 2025GCS 99 - 106 GWS
Jul 2024GCS 50 - 89 GWS
Mar 2024GCS 89 - 117 GWS
Jul 2023GCS 63 - 103 GWS
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GCS
1556Overall1498
GWS
ELO difference: +57 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1112Midfield1100
Best: 1475GCS +11Best: 1474
912Forwards1008
Best: 1418GWS +96Best: 1361
1113Defence1115
Best: 1463EvenBest: 1600
1150Ruck1140
Best: 1341GCS +10Best: 1370

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GCS
Stat
GWS
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
107.0pts
Avg Score
75.6pts
90.2pts
Avg Conceded
96.2pts
16.8pts
Avg Margin
-20.6pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
SUNS
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
SUNS
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
GIANTS
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
—
6
Scoring Form8.0%
SUNS
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
GIANTS

Model Confidence

50%

Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 138 · Line: +14.4

3/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props