Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.0 but the actual margin was 49 points. The game's 221 points came in 81 points higher than the predicted 141. Geelong Cats led 36–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
52%
North Melbourne
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Geelong Cats a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Defensive ELO and Venue Advantage. Geelong Cats carry a 251-point ELO rating advantage (1653 vs 1402). The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 5.0 points with a combined total of 141.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
-28.2%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +27.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.5%
Margin Band
Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 193.5 @1.88
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5W R2026-R6W R2026-R7L older → newer | 95.4 |
North Melbourne | R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5L R2026-R6W R2026-R7L | 94.2 |
Avg Conceded
75.8
Geelong Cats
81.4
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
19.6
Geelong Cats
12.8
North Melbourne
Disposals
350.0
Geelong Cats
350.0
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 141 · Line: +5.0
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