# Essendon v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 79 – 143 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions devour Essendon._

Half time: 32 – 65 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 46% / Brisbane Lions 54% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 02 May, 12:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Peter Wright (8' ×2), Lachlan Blakiston (47'), Nate Caddy (52' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Edwards (84'), Zach Merrett (61'), Sullivan Robey (67'), Kyle Langford (80'), Nik Cox (87') · Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (4' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Zac Bailey (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Conor McKenna (13' ×2), Cam Rayner (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (19' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Neale (49'), Darcy Wilmot (55'), Kai Lohmann (65' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Hugh McCluggage (71' Tipped ⚡), Bruce Reville (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 54% | Won |
| Essendon | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.4 predicted → 64 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 May 2026, 08:41 am · Last updated: 2 May 2026, 06:47 pm_

Essendon 79–143 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 8 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine to 38. That was the quarter time score, and it told you everything about how this one was going to go before most people had finished their first drink.

Brisbane Lions were already 29 points clear after a single term, and Essendon never found a way to slow the bleeding. By half time it was 65 to 32. By three-quarter time it was 110 to 41. The final margin was 64 points, Brisbane Lions 143, Essendon 79, and every quarter just added to the gap rather than closing it.

What's notable is that Essendon actually won the clearance count, 37 to 33, and weren't far off in contested possessions either, 114 to 125. So this wasn't a case of Brisbane dominating first use of the ball. It was everything that happened after clearances that did the damage.

The gulf was in marks. Brisbane finished with 163 to Essendon's 78, more than double, and that gap was even starker inside forward 50, where Brisbane took 23 marks to Essendon's 15. Brisbane also got there more often, 63 inside 50s to 53, and used the ball better once they arrived, hitting targets at 76.8% compared to Essendon's 73.4%. Add it up over 414 disposals to 350 and you've got a side that had more of the ball and did more damage with it every time it went forward.

None of that should shock anyone who looked at the numbers going in. Brisbane's forward rating, 1030 to Essendon's 981, and defence rating, 1113 to 1041, were their two clearest edges over Essendon, and that's exactly where this game was decided. Essendon actually rated up in the ruck, 1103 to 1076, and in midfield, 1172 to 1125, and the clearance count backs that up. It just didn't matter, because Brisbane were miles better at the pointy end of the ground on both sides of the ball.

Form lined up too. Brisbane came in on four wins from their last five, averaging 110.6 points a game, while Essendon had won one from five and were leaking 100.8 a game. Brisbane didn't just meet that average, they blew past it by more than 30 points.

Alphr's model called the winner, giving Brisbane Lions 54% and picking them off ratings of 1745 to 1246. The margin was where it fell over badly. Pre-match the model had Brisbane by 11.4 in a game totalling 136 points. Instead they won by 64 in a 222-point shootout, 86 points clear of what was predicted. One from four on the finer detail for this match, which is a rough day at the office even with the head-to-head pick correct.

Essendon had the midfield edge on paper and even backed it up on the clearance sheet. It just got buried by everything Brisbane did with the ball once it left stoppages, and 64 points is what that buries you by.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 9 | 23 | 9 | 38 | 79 |
| Brisbane Lions | 38 | 27 | 45 | 33 | 143 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Disposals | **414** |
| 114 | Contested poss. | **125** |
| **37** | Clearances | 33 |
| 53 | Inside 50s | **63** |
| 78 | Marks | **163** |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | **23** |
| 40 | Tackles | **48** |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **33** |
| **61** | Intercepts | 59 |
| 73.4% | Disposal eff. | **76.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 64 points. The game's 222 points came in 86 points higher than the predicted 136. Brisbane Lions led 32–65 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 64. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.07 (edge -39.6%) — model probability 53.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +46.5 @ $1.90 (edge +57.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 11 · Predicted total: 136

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Brisbane Lions are the call at 54%, but Essendon stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Brisbane Lions sit 499 ELO points clear, 1745 to 1246. Form leans Brisbane Lions' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Essendon.

Brisbane Lions own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Essendon by 11.4, with the two sides combining for about 136. Lean Brisbane Lions, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 83.4pts | Avg Score | 110.6pts |
| 100.8pts | Avg Conceded | 78.0pts |
| -17.4pts | Avg Margin | 32.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R3 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L | 83.4 |
| Brisbane Lions | R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 110.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 47 · 78 | 79 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposals | 66/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.9/g | 18.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6/g | 9.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 66.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 28 | 18 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 166/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.7/g | 24.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.1% | 70.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 7 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 159/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.3/g | 14.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.5% | 78.2% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.49) -2% · Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.43) -5% · Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.51) -6%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.3/g (lg 4.43) +20% · Defenders 1.3/g (lg 1.15) +13% · Key Forwards 4.13/g (lg 3.79) +9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 12 in 6g | 18/10g (1·3·1·1·1·4·1·2·1·3) | 2/2g | 19/12g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' 77' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 6 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·1·1) | 11/8g | 81/94g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 6 in 7g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 19/8g | 83/42g | 70% | — | 🏉 8' 70' |
| – | Thomas Edwards | FWD | 6 in 4g | 9/6g (3·0·2·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 67% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 0/5g | 11/23g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 12/33g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 12/36g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 6/14g | 31/90g | 38% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 11/8g | 67/57g | 64% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 8/65g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/12g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 11% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Kondogiannis | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nik Cox | FWD | no games | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/20g | 18% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 16 in 7g | 21/10g (0·1·4·4·2·2·0·1·3·4) | 19/12g | 47/24g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 85' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 13 in 6g | 18/10g (1·2·1·1·3·2·3·0·3·2) | 3/2g | 11/6g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 37' 45' 82' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 12 in 7g | 18/10g (3·1·2·2·1·2·4·1·1·1) | 6/2g | 6/7g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' 75' 78' 84' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 10 in 6g | 19/10g (1·3·2·3·1·2·2·2·0·3) | 5/8g | 24/17g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 63' 85' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 8 in 7g | 12/10g (1·2·1·1·1·2·0·1·2·1) | 5/8g | 20/19g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 64' |
| – | Lincoln McCarthy | FWD | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·2·2·1·0) | 9/6g | 14/17g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 4 in 6g | 10/10g (3·2·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 19/24g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 3 in 4g | 11/10g (1·2·0·0·1·4·0·0·1·2) | 6/10g | 15/24g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.64 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 7g | 8/10g (2·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 8/35g | 20% | — | 🏉 13' 78' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 10/14g | 25/40g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Cody Curtin | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/10g | 10% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 38/65g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/16g | 18/33g | 24% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 9/32g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 7g | 4/10g (1·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.92 | 82% | 27 ✓ |
| Zach Merrett ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.86 | 71% | 28 ✓ |
| Jye Caldwell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 72% | 27 ✗ |
| Jacob Farrow ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 17 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 12 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 16.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 16 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 28 ✓ |
| Lachie Neale | 32.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 27 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 28.5 | $1.75 | 59% | 27 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 25.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 25 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 67% | 21 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 22.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 32 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 21.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 20.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 19 ✓ |
| Keidean Coleman | 19.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 24 ✗ |
| Ryan Lester | 16.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 23 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Essendon 1246 · Brisbane Lions 1745 · ELO difference: 499 in favour of Brisbane Lions

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Essendon | Brisbane Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1172 (best 1385) | 1125 (best 1600) | Essendon +47 |
| Forwards | 981 (best 1454) | 1030 (best 1600) | Brisbane Lions +49 |
| Defence | 1041 (best 1451) | 1113 (best 1463) | Brisbane Lions +72 |
| Ruck | 1103 (best 1323) | 1076 (best 1323) | Essendon +27 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Essendon |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 136 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-02 08:47 UTC (latest tip update)