# Essendon v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 02 May, 12:35 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 8

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.07 (edge -39.6%) — model probability 53.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +46.5 @ $1.90 (edge +57.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 11 · Predicted total: 136

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 83.4pts | Avg Score | 110.6pts |
| 100.8pts | Avg Conceded | 78.0pts |
| -17.4pts | Avg Margin | 32.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R3 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L | 83.4 |
| Brisbane Lions | R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 110.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-02 08:47 UTC (latest tip update)