AFL | Round 8

alphr.com.au

Thu 30 Apr7:30pm
COLCOL
HAWHAW
Fri 1 May7:30pm
WBDWBD
FREFRE
Fri 1 May8:10pm
ADEADE
PORPOR
Sat 2 May12:35pm
ESSESS
BRIBRI
Sat 2 May4:15pm
WCEWCE
RICRIC
Sat 2 May4:35pm
GEEGEE
NORNOR
Sat 2 May7:35pm
CARCAR
STKSTK
Sun 3 May3:15pm
SYDSYD
MELMEL
Sun 3 May7:20pm
GCSGCS
GWSGWS
ESS
Essendon
VS
BRI
Brisbane Lions
MARVEL STADIUM • SATURDAY 2 MAY, 12:35 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 64 points. The game's 222 points came in 86 points higher than the predicted 136. Brisbane Lions led 32–65 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 64. The model went 1/4 on this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

54%Brisbane LionsFavourite

Essendon

46%

Brisbane Lions

54%

✨

AI Match Overview

Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Essendon are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Brisbane Lions carry a 499-point ELO rating advantage (1745 vs 1246). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Essendon by 11.4 points with a combined total of 136.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Brisbane Lions to Win @1.07

Winner ✓

Edge

-39.6%

✓

Line / Spread

Essendon +46.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+57.9%

✗

Margin Band

Essendon 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 185.5 @1.88

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.8%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Essendon
R3L
R4L
R5W
R6L
R7L

older → newer

85.4
Brisbane Lions
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7W
97.2

Avg Conceded

100.0

Essendon

83.8

Brisbane Lions

Avg Margin

-14.6

Essendon

13.4

Brisbane Lions

Disposals

350.0

Essendon

350.0

Brisbane Lions

Inside 50s

50.0

Essendon

50.0

Brisbane Lions

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

ESS
1246Overall1745
BRI
ELO difference: -499 in favour of Brisbane Lions

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1172Midfield1125
Best: 1385ESS +47Best: 1600
981Forwards1030
Best: 1454BRI +49Best: 1600
1041Defence1113
Best: 1451BRI +72Best: 1463
1103Ruck1076
Best: 1323ESS +27Best: 1323

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

ESS
Stat
BRI
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
85.4pts
Avg Score
97.2pts
100.0pts
Avg Conceded
83.8pts
-14.6pts
Avg Margin
13.4pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Lions
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Essendon
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Lions
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Lions
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Lions
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Lions
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

54%

Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 136 · Line: +11.4

1/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props