# Collingwood v Hawthorn — AFL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 93 – 93 Hawthorn

_Honours even between Collingwood and Hawthorn._

Half time: 45 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 47% / Hawthorn 53% · MCG · Thu, 30 Apr, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Jordan de Goey (8' ×2), Will Hayes (15' ×2), Lachie Schultz (20'), Angus Anderson (23'), Jack Buller (45' Tipped ⚡), Daniel McStay (74' Tipped ⚡), Oscar Steene (84'), Nick Daicos (86'), Jamie Elliott (68' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Steele Sidebottom (86') · Hawthorn: Massimo DAmbrosio (5' 1st), Jack Ginnivan (40' Tipped ⚡), Ned Reeves (47'), Nick Watson (56' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jai Newcombe (60'), Connor Macdonald (73' ×3), Mitch Lewis (77' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Calsher Dear (93' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 53% | Draw |
| Collingwood | 47% | Draw |

Model call: **Draw** · Margin: 5.0 predicted → 0 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Apr 2026, 11:52 pm · Last updated: 30 Apr 2026, 10:32 pm_

Collingwood 93–93 Hawthorn in AFL Round 8 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixty-two inside 50s to 34, and Hawthorn still couldn't shake Collingwood loose. The two sides finished locked together at 93-93 at the MCG, and if you'd shown anyone that inside 50 count beforehand, a draw is the last result they'd have picked.

Because on paper this wasn't close. Hawthorn won the clearance count 39 to 23, piled up 420 disposals to Collingwood's 345, and had Hawthorn's ruck division dominant at the stoppages, 41 hit-outs to 22. That's not a team edging it, that's a team that should be putting the game away. Instead they walked off with a share of it.

The scoreboard tells the story of a lead that kept moving but never quite got away. Collingwood were the ones setting the pace early, up 30-13 at quarter time despite being belted around the contest. By half time that gap had shrunk to 45-40, and Hawthorn had hit the front by three-quarter time, 77-75. Somehow, across the last quarter, Collingwood found the 18 points to draw level and no more.

Collingwood's tackling was the one column where they had the game covered, 53 to 45, and it's not hard to see why they needed it. Camped in defence for long stretches, with Hawthorn getting inside 50 almost twice as often, Collingwood had to make its pressure count when the ball did arrive. Marks inside 50 were close, 11 to 12, which says the entries Hawthorn generated so often weren't always translating into clean looks at goal.

The pre-match numbers had Hawthorn as clear favourites, rated 1801 to Collingwood's 1590, and the model gave them 53% and a 5-point win. On paper Hawthorn deserved to be closer to that: the midfield rating gap (1082 to 1043) and forward line edge (1058 to 1005) both showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the clearance and inside 50 counts. Collingwood's one form advantage, a stronger ruck rating of 1170 to 1084, didn't survive contact with reality, given Hawthorn won hit-outs by almost two to one.

Form lines pointed the same way. Hawthorn arrived on a five-game winning streak, averaging 99.2 points a game with an average winning margin of 22. Collingwood had won three of their last five on a scratchier WLLWW run, averaging 83.2. Against that backdrop, a Hawthorn win by daylight looked the obvious script.

Instead the model logged this one as a miss, going 1 from 4 on the numbers it tracks for the match, with the actual result landing on a draw the pre-match probabilities didn't provide for. The combined score of 186 blew past the predicted total of 143 by 44 points, so the shootout was there even if the finishing touch wasn't. Collingwood, for what it's worth, comfortably covered the 27.5-point line.

Two well-drilled sides, one lopsided stat sheet, and nothing to separate them at the death. Sometimes the numbers point one way and the scoreboard just shrugs.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 30 | 15 | 30 | 18 | 93 |
| Hawthorn | 13 | 27 | 37 | 16 | 93 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Disposals | **420** |
| 105 | Contested poss. | **134** |
| 23 | Clearances | **39** |
| 34 | Inside 50s | **62** |
| 100 | Marks | **109** |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| **53** | Tackles | 45 |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| 58 | Intercepts | **60** |
| **77.4%** | Disposal eff. | 76.9% |

**Model Report Card**

The match ended in a draw (93–93), a rare result the model's 53% forecast for Hawthorn didn't account for. The predicted margin of 5.0 was reasonable against the actual 0-point result. The game's 186 points came in 44 points higher than the predicted 143. The model went 1/4 on this match. Collingwood covered the 27.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.21 (edge -30.1%) — model probability 52.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +27.5 @ $1.91 (edge +32.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 5 · Predicted total: 143

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Collingwood and Hawthorn. The model can't split them, landing on Hawthorn at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 211 ELO points clear, 1801 to 1590. Form leans Hawthorn's way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Collingwood.

Hawthorn own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Collingwood by 5.0, with the two sides combining for about 143. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 83.2pts | Avg Score | 99.2pts |
| 72.2pts | Avg Conceded | 77.2pts |
| 11.0pts | Avg Margin | 22.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W | 83.2 |
| Hawthorn | R2 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 W | 99.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 61 · 58 | 87 · 60 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.4/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.7/g | 11.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 69.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 12 | 13 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 17.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.3% | 71.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 1 · 4 | 6 · 1 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 16.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.5% | 82.9% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.55/g (lg 2.51) +2% · Key Forwards 3.41/g (lg 3.8) -10% · Forwards 3.95/g (lg 4.42) -11%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.49) +12% · Defenders 1.18/g (lg 1.16) +2% · Midfielders 2.29/g (lg 2.51) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 12 in 7g | 13/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·4·1·2·2) | 11/11g | 48/43g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 10 in 7g | 20/10g (2·4·4·1·2·1·1·0·3·2) | 22/15g | 226/138g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' 75' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 7 in 6g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·3·0·0·1·0·3) | 11/11g | 127/117g | 56% | — | 🏉 8' 30' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 7 in 7g | 10/10g (2·0·1·2·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 8/8g | 41/35g | 68% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 5/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 5 in 6g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·2·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 36/63g | 56% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 67% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/14g | 53/158g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Steene | RUC | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 6/26g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/8g | 31/62g | 36% | — | — |
| – | William Hayes | FWD | 2 in 3g | 3/5g (0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 60% | — | 🏉 15' 70' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 8/34g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 39/74g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 11/19g | 106/185g | 32% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/32g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 15/143g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 39/113g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/34g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/80g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 0 in 2g | 10/10g (0·2·2·0·1·1·1·3·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 30/91g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Wil Parker | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 24 in 6g | 37/10g (2·3·5·3·4·5·4·3·3·5) | 27/18g | 246/122g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 93% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 18 in 7g | 22/10g (1·2·1·2·4·1·3·1·5·2) | 6/3g | 40/22g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' 72' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 11 in 7g | 15/10g (1·0·3·1·0·1·2·3·3·1) | 10/5g | 61/34g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' 91' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 8 in 7g | 12/10g (3·0·1·2·1·0·2·1·1·1) | 7/4g | 65/51g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·3·0·2·1) | 8/7g | 55/55g | 68% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 4 in 7g | 9/10g (3·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 30/41g | 60% | — | 🏉 73' 78' 82' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 14/28g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 14/44g | 46% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/22g | 26% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 2 in 2g | 12/10g (3·2·2·0·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 16/9g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 93' |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 9/52g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 5/25g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 9/28g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 8/29g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/19g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/13g | 15/69g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/25g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 12/80g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/50g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 31/82g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/27g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/32g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 10/37g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.94 | 64% | 34 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.93 | 69% | 23 ✓ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 78% | 32 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 24 ✗ |
| Darcy Moore ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.83 | 99% | 6 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 17.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 19 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard | 17.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 23 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 18 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 17.5 | $1.83 | 52% | 9 ✓ |
| Harry Perryman | 16.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 10 ✓ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 16.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | $1.88 | 48% | 27 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.80 | 75% | 27 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 24.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 30 ✗ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 22 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 22.5 | $1.77 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 78% | 24 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 21.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 22 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 21.5 | $1.83 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 69% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 21.5 | $1.80 | 62% | 22 ✗ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.80 | 74% | 24 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 23 ✗ |
| Blake Hardwick | 18.5 | $1.83 | 49% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Weddle ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.83 | 65% | 9 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Collingwood 1590 · Hawthorn 1801 · ELO difference: 211 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Collingwood | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1043 (best 1258) | 1082 (best 1238) | Hawthorn +38 |
| Forwards | 1005 (best 1480) | 1058 (best 1480) | Hawthorn +53 |
| Defence | 1102 (best 1301) | 1094 (best 1402) | Collingwood +7 |
| Ruck | 1170 (best 1328) | 1084 (best 1256) | Collingwood +86 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Hawthorn |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 143 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-30 12:32 UTC (latest tip update)