AFL | Round 8

alphr.com.au

Thu 30 Apr7:30pm
COLCOL
HAWHAW
Fri 1 May7:30pm
WBDWBD
FREFRE
Fri 1 May8:10pm
ADEADE
PORPOR
Sat 2 May12:35pm
ESSESS
BRIBRI
Sat 2 May4:15pm
WCEWCE
RICRIC
Sat 2 May4:35pm
GEEGEE
NORNOR
Sat 2 May7:35pm
CARCAR
STKSTK
Sun 3 May3:15pm
SYDSYD
MELMEL
Sun 3 May7:20pm
GCSGCS
GWSGWS
COL
Collingwood
VS
HAW
Hawthorn
MCG • THURSDAY 30 APR, 7:30 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

The match ended in a draw (93–93), a rare result the model's 53% forecast for Hawthorn didn't account for. The predicted margin of 5.0 was reasonable against the actual 0-point result. The game's 186 points came in 44 points higher than the predicted 143. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

53%HawthornFavourite

Collingwood

47%

Hawthorn

53%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Hawthorn a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 211-point ELO rating advantage (1801 vs 1590). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 5.0 points with a combined total of 143.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hawthorn to Win @1.21

Lost ✗

Edge

-30.1%

✗

Line / Spread

Collingwood +27.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+32.5%

✓

Margin Band

Collingwood 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 175.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.4%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Collingwood
R3W
R4L
R5L
R6W
R7W

older → newer

71.6
Hawthorn
R2W
R4W
R5W
R6W
R7W
105.8

Avg Conceded

78.8

Collingwood

81.2

Hawthorn

Avg Margin

-7.2

Collingwood

24.6

Hawthorn

Disposals

350.0

Collingwood

350.0

Hawthorn

Inside 50s

50.0

Collingwood

50.0

Hawthorn

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

COL
1590Overall1801
HAW
ELO difference: -211 in favour of Hawthorn

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1043Midfield1082
Best: 1258HAW +38Best: 1238
1005Forwards1058
Best: 1480HAW +53Best: 1480
1102Defence1094
Best: 1301EvenBest: 1402
1170Ruck1084
Best: 1328COL +86Best: 1256

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

COL
Stat
HAW
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
71.6pts
Avg Score
105.8pts
78.8pts
Avg Conceded
81.2pts
-7.2pts
Avg Margin
24.6pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Hawthorn
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Hawthorn
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hawthorn
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Hawthorn
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Collingwood
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Hawthorn
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

53%

Hawthorn predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 143 · Line: +5.0

1/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props