# Collingwood v Hawthorn — AFL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Collingwood v Hawthorn
Thu, 30 Apr, 07:30 pm AEST · MCG · Round 8

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.21 (edge -30.1%) — model probability 52.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +27.5 @ $1.91 (edge +32.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 5 · Predicted total: 143

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 83.2pts | Avg Score | 99.2pts |
| 72.2pts | Avg Conceded | 77.2pts |
| 11.0pts | Avg Margin | 22.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W | 83.2 |
| Hawthorn | R2 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 W | 99.2 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-30 12:32 UTC (latest tip update)