# Carlton v St Kilda — AFL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 69 – 108 St Kilda

_St Kilda fight back to sink Carlton._

Half time: 49 – 37 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 49% / St Kilda 51% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 02 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Brodie Kemp (6' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Francis Evans (21' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Cripps (38'), Matt Carroll (40'), Mitch McGovern (45' Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (53' ×2) · St Kilda: Rowan Marshall (19' ×3), Tom De Koning (25' ×2), Mitch Owens (42' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Bradley Hill (68'), Cooper Sharman (71' Tipped ⚡), Liam Henry (81' ×3), Mason Wood (84'), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 51% | Won |
| Carlton | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 39 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 May 2026, 08:41 am · Last updated: 3 May 2026, 01:12 am_

Carlton 69–108 St Kilda in AFL Round 8 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton had the better of it early, and the numbers back that up. More inside 50s on the day, 50 to 46. A shade ahead on disposal efficiency, 76.0 per cent to 75.8. More intercepts too, 60 to 55. At half time Carlton actually led, 49 to 37. None of it survived the third quarter.

That's where it came apart. St Kilda outscored Carlton 30 to 10 after half time to lead 89-59 at the last change, and from there it was just about how big the margin would get. Carlton managed only ten more in the final term while St Kilda piled on 19, and a competitive contest turned into a 108-69 rout.

The clearance count explains a lot of it. St Kilda won that battle 34 to 24, and once they started winning the ball at the source, Carlton's inside 50 advantage stopped mattering. It's one thing to get the ball forward 50 times, another to do anything with it: St Kilda finished with 23 marks inside 50 to Carlton's 15, turning entries into scores far more often than the Blues could.

The ruck battle told a similar story. St Kilda came in rated stronger there, 1138 to 1117, and led hit-outs 30 to 22 on the day. Feed that through more tackles too, 47 to 40, and St Kilda simply had more hands on the ball in the areas that decide games.

Carlton's form coming in was grim, five straight losses, averaging 84.2 scored and 100.2 conceded, and this one fit the pattern almost exactly on the concession side even if the attack briefly looked better than that. St Kilda arrived on the back of a 3-2 stretch, averaging 96.8 for and just 79.8 against, and it was the defensive number that held up: 108 points is well above their recent average against, but the pattern of controlling a game once ahead was there all the way through the second half.

Alphr's model backed St Kilda going in, giving them 51 per cent and rating them 1467 to Carlton's 1301. That part landed. The margin didn't. A predicted 6.7-point St Kilda win turned into a 39-point demolition, and the combined score of 177 ran 35 points past the projected 142. The one number that held was the total: under 183.5 was the right side of that line all night.

Two from four for the model here, and it's the same old lesson with margins in this competition. Picking the winner is one thing. Picking how far a team goes once it gets a third quarter like that is another problem entirely.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 16 | 33 | 10 | 10 | 69 |
| St Kilda | 21 | 16 | 52 | 19 | 108 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Disposals | **372** |
| 106 | Contested poss. | **112** |
| 24 | Clearances | **34** |
| **50** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| 118 | Marks | 118 |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | **23** |
| 40 | Tackles | **47** |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **30** |
| **60** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **76.0%** | Disposal eff. | 75.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 39 points. The game's 177 points came in 35 points higher than the predicted 142. St Kilda trailed 49–37 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 69–108. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 183.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.52 (edge -14.4%) — model probability 51.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +12.5 @ $1.89 (edge +19.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 7 · Predicted total: 142

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Carlton and St Kilda. The model can't split them, landing on St Kilda at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Kilda sit 166 ELO points clear, 1467 to 1301. Form leans St Kilda's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Carlton.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form. The margin model has Carlton by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 142. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carlton | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 84.2pts | Avg Score | 96.8pts |
| 100.2pts | Avg Conceded | 79.8pts |
| -16.0pts | Avg Margin | 17.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 84.2 |
| St Kilda | R2 W · R3 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 96.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 56 · 70 | 69 · 61 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 93/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 16.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.9/g | 8.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 67.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 31 | 18 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 152/g | 150/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.3/g | 23.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.5% | 69.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 2 | 8 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 0.6/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 12.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76% | 77.6% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.74/g (lg 2.51) +9% · Key Forwards 3.75/g (lg 3.79) -1% · Forwards 4.25/g (lg 4.44) -4%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.63/g (lg 0.49) +29% · Defenders 1.28/g (lg 1.16) +10% · Forwards 4.74/g (lg 4.44) +7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 15 in 7g | 17/10g (0·1·1·0·2·3·2·2·3·3) | 6/7g | 18/34g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 11 in 7g | 16/10g (5·0·0·1·1·0·3·0·2·4) | 1/3g | 9/17g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 35' 86' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 8 in 6g | 20/10g (1·3·7·1·1·2·1·2·1·1) | 13/8g | 95/45g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 7 in 7g | 10/10g (2·0·1·2·0·1·0·2·2·0) | 9/10g | 16/23g | 64% | — | 🏉 53' 91' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·3·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/20g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 27% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 3 in 5g | 15/10g (1·2·4·2·3·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 6/5g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.52 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (0·3·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 15/10g | 41/28g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/14g | 47/72g | 38% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 11/43g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 19/30g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 8/29g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 11/43g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 10/26g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 4/22g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 4/56g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/63g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/14g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Liam Reidy | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 11/23g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 11 in 7g | 14/10g (2·0·1·2·2·1·2·2·2·0) | 2/4g | 52/45g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' 76' 85' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 9 in 7g | 16/10g (2·3·2·2·0·0·3·1·1·2) | 4/4g | 54/41g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 9 in 7g | 12/10g (1·0·2·1·4·1·0·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 13/15g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·3·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 12/52g | 40% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·2·0·2) | 4/4g | 15/26g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 6/6g | 85/83g | 60% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/15g | 21/85g | 28% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (4·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 17/10g | 69/63g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 5/17g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 9/42g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 23/32g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 29/41g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 48/81g | 42% | — | 🏉 19' 54' 86' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 6/14g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 11/33g | 26% | — | 🏉 25' 88' |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/80g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/50g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 28/135g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 40/111g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 5/17g | 24% | — | 🏉 81' 82' 71' |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | no games | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/44g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 28.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 24 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 25.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 14 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 24.5 | $1.95 | 47% | 28 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 30 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 22.5 | $1.83 | 55% | 25 ✗ |
| Jagga Smith | 21.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 21 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.96 | 44% | 21 ✗ |
| Zac Williams | 17.5 | $1.90 | 40% | 18 ✗ |
| Matthew Carroll | 16.5 | $1.83 | 56% | 12 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 31 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair | 29.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 29 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 24.5 | $1.77 | 55% | 16 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 22 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders | 23.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.85 | 68% | 15 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 23.5 | $1.84 | 59% | 20 ✓ |
| Mason Wood ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 19 ✗ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 90% | 20 ✗ |
| Max Hall | 16.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 23 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carlton 1301 · St Kilda 1467 · ELO difference: 166 in favour of St Kilda

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Carlton | St Kilda | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1082 (best 1351) | 1091 (best 1253) | St Kilda +9 |
| Forwards | 1010 (best 1523) | 1008 (best 1493) | Carlton +2 |
| Defence | 1115 (best 1392) | 1084 (best 1418) | Carlton +31 |
| Ruck | 1117 (best 1191) | 1138 (best 1457) | St Kilda +21 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | St Kilda |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 142 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-02 15:12 UTC (latest tip update)