Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 39 points. The game's 177 points came in 35 points higher than the predicted 142. St Kilda trailed 49–37 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 69–108. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 183.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Carlton
49%
St Kilda
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives St Kilda a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. St Kilda carry a 166-point ELO rating advantage (1467 vs 1301). Recent form favours St Kilda with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 6.7 points with a combined total of 142.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @1.52
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.4%
Line / Spread
Carlton +12.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.2%
Margin Band
Carlton 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 183.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | R3L R4L R5L R6L R7L older → newer | 81.4 |
St Kilda | R2W R3L R5W R6L R7W | 89.6 |
Avg Conceded
93.8
Carlton
95.4
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-12.4
Carlton
-5.8
St Kilda
Disposals
350.0
Carlton
350.0
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
St Kilda predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 142 · Line: +6.7
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.