AFL | Round 8

alphr.com.au

Thu 30 Apr7:30pm
COLCOL
HAWHAW
Fri 1 May7:30pm
WBDWBD
FREFRE
Fri 1 May8:10pm
ADEADE
PORPOR
Sat 2 May12:35pm
ESSESS
BRIBRI
Sat 2 May4:15pm
WCEWCE
RICRIC
Sat 2 May4:35pm
GEEGEE
NORNOR
Sat 2 May7:35pm
CARCAR
STKSTK
Sun 3 May3:15pm
SYDSYD
MELMEL
Sun 3 May7:20pm
GCSGCS
GWSGWS
ADE
Adelaide Crows
VS
POR
Port Adelaide
ADELAIDE OVAL • FRIDAY 1 MAY, 8:10 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 5.6 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Adelaide Crows trailed 22–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 76–75. A clean sweep — all 4 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

51%Adelaide CrowsFavourite

Adelaide Crows

51%

Port Adelaide

49%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Defensive ELO and Venue Advantage. Adelaide Crows carry a 118-point ELO rating advantage (1568 vs 1450). The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 5.6 points with a combined total of 141.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Adelaide Crows to Win @1.56

Winner ✓

Edge

-13.4%

✓

Line / Spread

Port Adelaide +9.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+3.9%

✓

Margin Band

Adelaide Crows 1-39 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 174.5 @1.90

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.4%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Adelaide Crows
R3L
R4L
R5W
R6W
R7L

older → newer

88.2
Port Adelaide
R3L
R4W
R5L
R6L
R7W
93.2

Avg Conceded

85.6

Adelaide Crows

76.0

Port Adelaide

Avg Margin

2.6

Adelaide Crows

17.2

Port Adelaide

Disposals

350.0

Adelaide Crows

350.0

Port Adelaide

Inside 50s

50.0

Adelaide Crows

50.0

Port Adelaide

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

ADE
1568Overall1450
POR
ELO difference: +118 in favour of Adelaide Crows

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1068Midfield1106
Best: 1313POR +38Best: 1563
974Forwards998
Best: 1396POR +24Best: 1469
1151Defence1105
Best: 1538ADE +46Best: 1600
1089Ruck1119
Best: 1172POR +30Best: 1513

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

ADE
Stat
POR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
88.2pts
Avg Score
93.2pts
85.6pts
Avg Conceded
76.0pts
2.6pts
Avg Margin
17.2pts
350.0
Disposals
350.0
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
60.0
Tackles
60.0
35.0
Clearances
35.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Crows
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Adelaide
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Adelaide
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Crows
6
Scoring Form8.0%
—
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Crows

Model Confidence

51%

Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 141 · Line: +5.6

4/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props