# Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 76 – 75 Port Adelaide

_Adelaide Crows roar back to peck holes in Port Adelaide._

Half time: 22 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 51% / Port Adelaide 49% · Adelaide Oval · Fri, 01 May, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Luke Pedlar (16'), Ben Keays (36' ×3), Josh Rachele (53' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (77' Tipped ⚡), Toby Murray (89' ×2), Riley Thilthorpe (62' Tipped ⚡), Brayden Cook (88') · Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (9' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Ollie Wines (11'), Corey Durdin (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zak Butters (56'), Dante Visentini (79'), Joe Berry (75' ×2), Jack Whitlock (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 51% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 May 2026, 08:41 am · Last updated: 2 May 2026, 08:52 am_

Adelaide Crows 76–75 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 8 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide wanted the ball in their hands. Adelaide Crows wanted it in Port Adelaide's forward line, again and again, whether it was tidy or not. Both approaches nearly worked. Only one did, and by the barest possible margin: 76-75.

The numbers back up the contrast neatly. Port Adelaide finished with 356 disposals to 339, took 103 marks to 78, and dominated the ruck 55 hit-outs to 38. That's a side built to control territory through clean hands and structure, and it shows in a midfield rating of 1106 against Adelaide's 1068 and a ruck edge of 1119 to 1089 coming in. Adelaide, by contrast, just kept pushing the ball forward. Fifty-nine inside 50s to 39 is not patient footy. It's a side deciding that volume beats precision.

Port Adelaide made Adelaide pay for some of that ambition. Twelve marks inside 50 to eight tells you their entries were sharper even if there were fewer of them. But Adelaide's response was to tackle anything that moved, 81 to 69, and that pressure shows up in the only stat that really matters at the death: two extra intercepts, 76 to 73, and a disposal efficiency edge, 74.3 per cent to 71.6.

The scoreboard tells the story of two very different quarters mattering more than the rest. Port Adelaide raced to a 20-8 lead at quarter time, playing exactly the expansive game their disposal numbers suggest. Adelaide clawed the margin back to 22-28 by half time, then flipped the contest with a 35-point third term to Port Adelaide's 21,

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 8 | 14 | 35 | 19 | 76 |
| Port Adelaide | 20 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 75 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 339 | Disposals | **356** |
| **150** | Contested poss. | 144 |
| 35 | Clearances | **38** |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 39 |
| 78 | Marks | **103** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| **81** | Tackles | 69 |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **55** |
| **76** | Intercepts | 73 |
| **74.3%** | Disposal eff. | 71.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 5.6 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Adelaide Crows trailed 22–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 76–75. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.56 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 50.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 6 · Predicted total: 141

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide. The model can't split them, landing on Adelaide Crows at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 118 ELO points clear, 1568 to 1450.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Adelaide Crows by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 141. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 85.6pts | Avg Score | 85.6pts |
| 92.2pts | Avg Conceded | 75.0pts |
| -6.6pts | Avg Margin | 10.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | R3 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L | 85.6 |
| Port Adelaide | R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 L · R7 W | 85.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 63 · 64 | 55 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 5.7/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.4/g | 17.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.6/g | 10.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.2% | 68.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 20 | 25 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 153/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 26.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.2% | 68.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 7 | 10 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 103/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.1/g | 9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.8% | 79.9% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.29/g (lg 1.16) +11% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.49) +6% · Key Forwards 3.84/g (lg 3.79) +1%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.16) +3% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.43) -1% · Midfielders 2.33/g (lg 2.51) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 12 in 7g | 20/10g (3·2·3·3·2·1·1·1·3·1) | 14/8g | 71/50g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 11 in 6g | 16/10g (2·1·2·0·0·3·1·1·5·1) | 47/21g | 299/134g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 10 in 7g | 14/10g (2·0·2·1·2·1·1·4·1·0) | 6/5g | 65/44g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 65' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 7 in 7g | 11/10g (3·0·1·1·0·0·0·3·2·1) | 10/15g | 70/80g | 72% | — | 🏉 36' 87' 60' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 7 in 6g | 13/10g (1·3·1·1·1·1·0·2·1·2) | 15/7g | 72/40g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 6/12g | 19/31g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 8/20g | 38% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 7/25g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 4 in 6g | 12/10g (1·3·3·1·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 6/4g | 24/24g | 64% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/20g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 23/52g | 44% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 7g | 6/10g (3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 9/19g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/47g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 8/47g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/20g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/36g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 0 in 7g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/43g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 18/141g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 89' 91' |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 18/73g | 6% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 18 in 7g | 25/10g (2·1·4·3·2·3·2·2·2·4) | 9/7g | 109/55g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 72' 64' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 12 in 7g | 12/10g (0·0·0·2·2·2·1·2·1·2) | 5/5g | 16/10g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 60' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 11 in 7g | 15/10g (0·1·3·0·3·1·2·2·2·1) | 5/5g | 43/42g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 9 in 7g | 13/10g (0·3·1·2·0·3·2·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/18g | 47/124g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 14/17g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 10/33g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/11g | 28% | — | 🏉 75' 87' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 5/25g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 17/60g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/8g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 8/46g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 11/77g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 7/11g | 31/80g | 22% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 25/66g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 11/22g | 54/138g | 18% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/69g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 11% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 16/9g | 86/64g | 54% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 22 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 80% | 29 ✗ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.94 | 91% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 85% | 29 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 88% | 25 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 85% | 23 ✗ |
| Brayden Cook ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 83% | 21 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 17 ✗ |
| Isaac Cumming ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.83 | 71% | 11 ✓ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 30 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 80% | 20 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 67% | 30 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 12 ✓ |
| Willem Drew ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 20 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 14 ✓ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 22 ✗ |
| Joe Richards ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 10 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Adelaide Crows 1568 · Port Adelaide 1450 · ELO difference: 118 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Adelaide Crows | Port Adelaide | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1068 (best 1313) | 1106 (best 1563) | Port Adelaide +38 |
| Forwards | 974 (best 1396) | 998 (best 1469) | Port Adelaide +24 |
| Defence | 1151 (best 1538) | 1105 (best 1600) | Adelaide Crows +46 |
| Ruck | 1089 (best 1172) | 1119 (best 1513) | Port Adelaide +30 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Adelaide Crows |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 141 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-01 22:52 UTC (latest tip update)