Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 66 points. Total score prediction of 183 was close to the actual 186 — within 3 points. Sydney Swans led 39–52 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 66. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 188.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
44%
Sydney Swans
56%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Western Bulldogs are far from out of this at 44%. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 82-point ELO rating advantage (1564 vs 1482). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 5.1 points with a combined total of 183.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
-22.3%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +25.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+30.6%
Margin Band
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 188.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 83.2 |
Sydney Swans | W W W L L | 98.9 |
Avg Conceded
76.5
Western Bulldogs
66.1
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
3.6
Western Bulldogs
22.1
Sydney Swans
Disposals
343.9
Western Bulldogs
333.6
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
47.2
Western Bulldogs
43.2
Sydney Swans
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1564 vs 1482), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.27).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 183 · Line: +5.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.