# St Kilda v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 143 – 42 West Coast Eagles

_St Kilda run riot over West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 52 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 59% / West Coast Eagles 41% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 26 Apr, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Liam Ryan (15' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Sam Flanders (22'), Jack Higgins (26' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Rowan Marshall (46'), Hugo Garcia (56' ×2), Cooper Sharman (76' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (83' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Marcus Windhager (85' ×2), Final quarter (29m 33s)Dan Butler (62'), Anthony Caminiti (78'), Mattaes Phillipou (81' ×2) · West Coast Eagles: Harley Reid (35'), Elliot Yeo (66'), Liam Baker (74'), Jake Waterman (95' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 59% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.5 predicted → 101 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Apr 2026, 08:14 am · Last updated: 26 Apr 2026, 06:14 pm_

St Kilda 143–42 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 7 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-one marks inside 50 to nine. That's the number that explains how St Kilda turned a contest into a procession, beating West Coast Eagles 143-42 at Marvel Stadium.

When you're taking uncontested grabs in the forward line more than double your opponent, you're not just scoring, you're scoring easily. St Kilda went inside 50 fifty-nine times to West Coast's forty-six, but it was what happened once the ball got there that did the damage. Clean marks mean set shots. Set shots mean the scoreboard clicks over without any fuss.

The timeline tells you this wasn't a shootout that got out of hand late, it was one-way traffic from the opening bounce. St Kilda led 22-3 at quarter time, 52-12 at the main break, then 95-40 at the three-quarter mark. West Coast actually had their best patch of scoring in that third term, adding 28 points to St Kilda's 43, the only quarter where the margin didn't blow out further. It didn't matter. St Kilda still piled on 48 more in the last to close it out by 101.

The disposal count backs up the eye test: 432 to 329, with St Kilda's efficiency at 79.4% against West Coast's 75.1%. More the ball, and cleaner with it. Add 146 marks to 90 and you've got a St Kilda side that controlled every uncontested moment of the game, not just the scoring ones. Contested possessions went St Kilda's way too, 128 to 109, and clearances 36 to 27, so this wasn't a side winning garbage ball. They won the hard stuff and the easy stuff.

West Coast's one area of parity was intercepts, 63 to St Kilda's 65, which suggests they were reading the ball off opposition hands just fine. The problem was what happened after. Forty-five St Kilda tackles to their 31 meant every intercept came under pressure, and turnovers back the other way were punished ruthlessly given the marking dominance up forward.

None of this lines up with what the positional ratings suggested going in. West Coast rated stronger across midfield, forwards and ruck, and their last-five form had them winning more often with a positive average margin. St Kilda were meant to be the honest battler squeezing out a competitive result. Instead the ladder-quality gap flipped on its head for eighty minutes.

Alphr's model got the winner right, giving St Kilda a 59% chance, and it nailed the total, tipping 185 combined against an actual 185. The margin was where it fell over badly, expecting a 10.5-point St Kilda win and getting handed a 101-point demolition instead. Two from four on the night, and the margin miss is the kind that reminds you form lines and ratings only tell you so much once a team starts taking uncontested grabs at will.

For West Coast, there's not much to salvage. They matched St Kilda in one metric that matters, intercepts, and were competitive in one quarter of football. Everywhere else, the gap was embarrassing, and no amount of positional pre-season rating can paper over a 101-point beating at Marvel Stadium.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 22 | 30 | 43 | 48 | 143 |
| West Coast Eagles | 3 | 9 | 28 | 2 | 42 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **432** | Disposals | 329 |
| **128** | Contested poss. | 109 |
| **36** | Clearances | 27 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| **146** | Marks | 90 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **45** | Tackles | 31 |
| **29** | Hit-outs | 25 |
| **65** | Intercepts | 63 |
| **79.4%** | Disposal eff. | 75.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 101 points. Total score prediction of 185 was close to the actual 185, within 0 points. St Kilda led 52–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 101. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 185.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.11 (edge -30.8%) — model probability 59.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 11 · Predicted total: 185

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Kilda lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R10 | West Coast Eagles | 108 – 80 | St Kilda |
| 2024 | R19 | St Kilda | 113 – 41 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R12 | West Coast Eagles | 68 – 82 | St Kilda |
| 2023 | R16 | West Coast Eagles | 77 – 85 | St Kilda |
| 2022 | R19 | West Coast Eagles | 62 – 90 | St Kilda |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 54 · 59 | 32 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 79/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.2/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.7/g | 6.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.6% | 68.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 18 | 19 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 149/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.8/g | 21.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 69.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 3 | 5 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.8/g | 10.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.9% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.75/g (lg 0.49) +53% · Midfielders 3.58/g (lg 2.5) +43% · Forwards 5.35/g (lg 4.41) +21%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.75/g (lg 2.5) +10% · Key Forwards 3.79/g (lg 3.8) +0% · Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.41) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 11 in 6g | 18/10g (2·2·3·0·1·2·2·2·0·4) | 11/6g | 99/66g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 48' 54' 94' 85' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 11 in 6g | 16/10g (2·2·0·1·2·2·1·2·2·2) | 5/4g | 52/44g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 8 in 6g | 12/10g (1·3·0·0·1·1·1·3·1·1) | 0/0g | 25/16g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 70' 77' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 7 in 6g | 15/10g (1·2·3·2·2·0·0·3·1·1) | 3/5g | 52/40g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' 87' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 7 in 6g | 11/10g (1·1·0·2·1·4·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 11/14g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' 83' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·3·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 12/51g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 4 in 6g | 10/10g (0·0·1·5·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 3/3g | 16/23g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 16/8g | 85/82g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/21g | 21/84g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 13/25g | 42% | — | 🏉 81' 88' |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (0·4·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 17/9g | 68/62g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/16g | 19% | — | 🏉 56' 69' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/10g | 29/40g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 11/32g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 22/31g | 28% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/79g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/49g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 10/60g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 40/110g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/41g | 6% | — | 🏉 85' 71' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 47/80g | 38% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/13g | 32% | — | 🏉 22' |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 11 in 6g | 20/10g (3·1·2·3·3·1·4·1·1·1) | 5/7g | 12/9g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 95' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 7 in 6g | 14/10g (1·3·0·3·1·2·0·0·4·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 76% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 6 in 4g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·2·2·1·1) | 5/12g | 11/22g | 40% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 6 in 6g | 6/6g (0·2·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 4/8g | 11/19g | 36% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (0·1·2·2·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 2/5g | 42% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/5g | 2/12g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 1/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | no games | 13/10g (3·1·1·2·2·1·1·0·2·0) | 4/3g | 8/9g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/23g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 7/11g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 6/16g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.82 | 75% | 27 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.97 | 69% | 34 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.95 | 80% | 21 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 25 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 22.5 | $1.77 | 47% | 25 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 21.5 | $1.77 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia | 20.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 32 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 18.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 14 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 27 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.77 | 79% | 16 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.92 | 47% | 19 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 21.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 21.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 27 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 80% | 31 ✗ |
| Elliot Yeo | 20.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 21 ✗ |
| Liam Baker | 19.5 | $1.80 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 18.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 25 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-26 08:14 UTC (latest tip update)