Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 101 points. Total score prediction of 185 was close to the actual 185 — within 0 points. St Kilda led 52–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 101. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 185.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
59%
West Coast Eagles
41%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though West Coast Eagles are far from out of this at 41%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. West Coast Eagles carry a 36-point ELO rating advantage (1516 vs 1481). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 10.5 points with a combined total of 185.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @1.11
Winner ✓
Edge
-30.8%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+30.0%
Margin Band
St Kilda 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 185.5 @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | W W L L L | 102.4 |
West Coast Eagles | W W W L L | 86.5 |
Avg Conceded
88.8
St Kilda
99.9
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
3.9
St Kilda
-6.7
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
378.2
St Kilda
352.0
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
43.6
St Kilda
50.9
West Coast Eagles
ELO–Market Disagreement
West Coast Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1516 vs 1481), but the market favours St Kilda (@1.11).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
St Kilda predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 185 · Line: +10.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.