# Richmond v Melbourne — AFL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 72 – 126 Melbourne

_Melbourne put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 44 – 65 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 41% / Melbourne 59% · MCG · Fri, 24 Apr, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Steely Green (6'), Mykelti Lefau (27' Tipped ⚡), Seth Campbell (35' ×2), Hugo Ralphsmith (44'), Kane McAuliffe (65'), Tom Lynch (74' Tipped ⚡), Sam Lalor (87') · Melbourne: Matthew Jefferson (4' ×2 1st), Kade Chandler (13' Tipped ⚡), Caleb Windsor (18' ×2), Tom Sparrow (25'), Harry Sharp (37'), Bailey Laurie (46'), Kysaiah Pickett (55' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Harvey Langford (57' Tipped ⚡), Brody Mihocek (63' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Bayley Fritsch (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Max Gawn (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 59% | Won |
| Richmond | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.2 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond vs Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 7, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Apr 2026, 08:14 am · Last updated: 24 Apr 2026, 11:45 pm_

Richmond 72–126 Melbourne in AFL Round 7 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Melbourne played wide and patient, Richmond played tight and precise, and only one of those approaches survives a 61 to 45 deficit at the coalface. Final score: Melbourne 126, Richmond 72, and the shape of the game is written all over the stat sheet.

Richmond actually won the efficiency battle, hitting targets at 77.4% to Melbourne's 72.7%. In most games that counts for something. Here it barely registered, because Melbourne simply had so much more of the ball to be inefficient with, 362 disposals to 332, and so many more looks at goal, 61 inside 50s to 45. Precision without volume is a nice line in the stats but it doesn't move the scoreboard when the opposition is camped in your forward line.

The ruck contest explains a lot of that volume. Melbourne won hit-outs 47 to 18, a gulf that let their midfield dictate terms all day. Clearances went the same way, 38 to 32, and from there Melbourne's forward line did what strong forward lines do with first use of the ball, taking 16 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 10. Tackle numbers were close, 44 to 45, so this wasn't decided by pressure. It was decided by whoever got their hands on the ball first, and that was Melbourne, repeatedly.

The scoreboard tells the story in stages. Melbourne led 28 to 19 at quarter time, a manageable gap. By half time it was 65 to 44, the margin already stretching past 20. At three-quarter time it sat at 87 to 65, Melbourne up by 22 and still building. Then the last quarter turned it from a contest into a rout: Richmond managed just 7 more points, Melbourne piled on 39, and the final margin blew out to 54. Whatever containment Richmond had going in the third term evaporated in the fourth.

Pre-match, the ratings had this pegged as a Melbourne performance without the gap being this wide. Melbourne came in rated stronger everywhere that matters, 1069 to 927 in the forward line, 1026 to 919 in the ruck, 993 to 923 through the midfield. Their recent form matched it too, averaging 108.8 points a game against Richmond's 92.1, and winning by an average of 27.5 points across their last five compared to Richmond's 16.3. Everything pointed one way. It just went further than expected.

Alphr's model backed Melbourne at 59% and got the winner right. The margin was another matter, tipped at 7.2 points against an actual gap of 54, and the total of 198 ran 19 points hotter than the predicted 180. Richmond's disposal efficiency gave the model something to hang a competitive scoreline on. Melbourne's ruck dominance and that final-quarter surge made sure it never eventuated.

Richmond leave with the efficiency numbers to point to and not much else. Winning the disposal battle by percentage means little when you're beaten by 25 hit-outs, six clearances and 16 inside 50s. Melbourne had the guts of the contest sewn up all night, and once the final quarter arrived, they cashed it in.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 19 | 25 | 21 | 7 | 72 |
| Melbourne | 28 | 37 | 22 | 39 | 126 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Disposals | **362** |
| 126 | Contested poss. | **150** |
| 32 | Clearances | **38** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| 70 | Marks | **78** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| **45** | Tackles | 44 |
| 18 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| 63 | Intercepts | **66** |
| **77.4%** | Disposal eff. | 72.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Melbourne to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.2 but the actual margin was 54 points. The game's 198 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 180. Melbourne led 44–65 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.13 (edge -29.8%) — model probability 58.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +39.5 @ $1.89 (edge +46.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 7 · Predicted total: 180

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 37 · 72 | 54 · 61 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.7/g | 22.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 67.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 19 | 27 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 102/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.3/g | 23.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68% | 68.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 4 | 3 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 10.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.9% | 78% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Defenders 1.46/g (lg 1.17) +25% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.49) +10% · Forwards 4.46/g (lg 4.43) +1%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.92/g (lg 3.79) +30% · Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.49) +22% · Midfielders 2.85/g (lg 2.48) +15%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 7 in 6g | 11/10g (0·2·2·0·2·1·0·2·1·1) | 1/1g | 14/10g | 70% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 6 in 6g | 11/10g (0·0·3·2·0·3·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 21/27g | 56% | — | 🏉 35' 80' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 6 in 6g | 9/10g (2·0·0·1·2·0·3·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 11/17g | 46% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 5 in 5g | 10/10g (0·1·2·2·0·1·0·0·4·0) | 1/1g | 8/9g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 7/53g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 2 in 2g | 17/10g (2·2·0·3·1·1·3·3·2·0) | 25/12g | 156/71g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 32/91g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 13/35g | 28% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/11g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 17/142g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 26/59g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/43g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 8/43g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/96g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Samson Ryan | RUC | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/14g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/25g | 18% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 10 in 5g | 22/10g (3·4·2·0·3·1·2·4·1·2) | 15/8g | 146/87g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' 78' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 10 in 6g | 11/10g (0·1·0·0·3·1·1·2·1·2) | 13/9g | 162/97g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 78' 84' |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 10 in 6g | 16/10g (2·1·2·1·6·0·0·1·0·3) | 8/3g | 57/40g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 8 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·2) | 1/2g | 11/14g | 44% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 8 in 6g | 14/10g (3·1·1·1·0·0·2·2·1·3) | 0/1g | 16/16g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 8 in 6g | 11/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·3) | 6/5g | 44/51g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·1·1·2·0) | 7/7g | 106/67g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' 61' 86' 76' |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 29/77g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Latrelle Pickett | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/13g | 64/129g | 40% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 25/63g | 34% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/17g | 6/24g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/25g | 24% | — | 🏉 18' 70' |
| – | Jai Culley | MID | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 8/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Laurie | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/11g | 8% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/21g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/29g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 12/23g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/72g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 0 in 1g | 4/8g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 38% | — | 🏉 4' 83' |
| – | Max Heath | RUC | 0 in 1g | 3/5g (1·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Taylor | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | 24.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 22 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 22.5 | $1.93 | 49% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 22.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 27 ✗ |
| Kane McAuliffe ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.92 | 71% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 82% | 21 ✗ |
| Sam Lalor ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 88% | 16 ✓ |
| Nathan Broad ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 11 ✓ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.80 | 85% | 29 ✗ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.83 | 71% | 25 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 24 ✗ |
| Max Gawn | 23.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| Koltyn Tholstrup ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.96 | 95% | 11 ✓ |
| Tom Sparrow ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 28 ✗ |
| Harvey Langford | 18.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Jake Lever ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Kade Chandler ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-24 13:45 UTC (latest tip update)