Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
41%
Melbourne
59%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Richmond are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Melbourne carry a 42-point ELO rating advantage (1513 vs 1471). Recent form favours Richmond with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Richmond by 7.2 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
-29.8%
Line / Spread
Richmond +39.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+46.7%
Margin Band
Richmond 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 185.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | W W W L L | 92.1 |
Melbourne | W W L L L | 108.8 |
Avg Conceded
76.7
Richmond
73.0
Melbourne
Avg Margin
16.3
Richmond
27.5
Melbourne
Disposals
366.5
Richmond
356.2
Melbourne
Inside 50s
53.2
Richmond
54.5
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Melbourne predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +7.2
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.