Win Probability
AI Game Review
Port Adelaide defied the model's 57% prediction for Geelong Cats — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 30 points. The game's 160 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 176. Port Adelaide led 50–37 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 2/4 on this match. The Draw margin band call landed. The under 184.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
43%
Geelong Cats
57%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Port Adelaide are far from out of this at 43%. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Geelong Cats counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 77-point ELO rating advantage (1576 vs 1498). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.24
Lost ✗
Edge
-23.6%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide +27.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+26.6%
Margin Band
Geelong Cats Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 184.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W L L L L | 96.2 |
Geelong Cats | W W L L L | 100.1 |
Avg Conceded
90.7
Port Adelaide
71.6
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
2.4
Port Adelaide
15.1
Geelong Cats
Disposals
356.0
Port Adelaide
377.1
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
50.2
Port Adelaide
50.8
Geelong Cats
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1576 vs 1498), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.24).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: -0.9
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.