# Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 95 – 65 Geelong Cats

_Port Adelaide see off Geelong Cats._

Half time: 50 – 37 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 43% / Geelong Cats 57% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 25 Apr, 06:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (8' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (24' ×2), Jordon Sweet (27'), Christian Moraes (49'), Miles Bergman (68'), Final quarter (30m 47s)Jason Horne-Francis (64'), Jase Burgoyne (70'), Joe Richards (84') · Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron (3' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Shannon Neale (9' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Martin (36'), Shaun Mannagh (67'), James Worpel (77'), Brad Close (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 57% | Lost |
| Port Adelaide | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Apr 2026, 08:14 am · Last updated: 25 Apr 2026, 10:03 pm_

Port Adelaide 95–65 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 7 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Some teams try to out-run you. Port Adelaide preferred to just take the ball off you first and never give it back. That's roughly what happened at Adelaide Oval, where Port Adelaide accounted for Geelong Cats 95 to 65, and the contest was decided well before the final siren by whoever controlled the ball, not whoever ran it hardest.

The hit-out count tells you where it started: 53 to 23. Win the ruck like that and everything downstream gets easier, and it showed in the clearances, 46 to 28 in Port Adelaide's favour. Geelong simply weren't getting first use of the ball often enough to dictate anything.

From there it was about repetition. Port Adelaide finished with 404 disposals to 332, at 75.0% efficiency against Geelong's 72.6%. Fifty-eight inside 50s to 35 backs up the disposal count, and once the ball got forward, Port Adelaide made it count with 17 marks inside 50 to Geelong's 8. That's not a team hoping for the ball to bounce kindly, that's a team taking marks on the chest and going again.

The scoreboard built steadily rather than in one avalanche. Port Adelaide led 30-24 at the first break, 50-37 at half-time, then 69-45 at three-quarter time before closing it out 95-65. Every quarter, the margin grew. No single passage decided it, just four quarters of the same story repeating itself.

Geelong's form coming in suggested this shouldn't have happened easily. They arrived averaging 100.1 points a game to Port Adelaide's 96.2, conceding only 71.6 compared to Port Adelaide's 90.7, and carrying a healthier recent win rate and a much bigger average margin. On paper, Geelong were the sharper side. On the night, none of that mattered once Port Adelaide took the contested footy away from them, 125 to 124 isn't a big gap, but Port Adelaide turned that even split into a rout everywhere else, including 65 intercepts to 56 and 66 tackles to 53. Geelong were doing the chasing.

The ratings had this as Geelong's game too, just 1498 to 1576 in Port Adelaide's favour on ELO but a 57% winner's chance for the Cats and a predicted margin of 0.9 points. Reality landed 30 points the other way. The total came in at 160, sixteen under the predicted 176, which fits a game that was more about control than end-to-end footy. Alphr's model went 2 from 4 on this one: it picked the wrong winner and misread the margin badly, but it had the under right on the 184.5 total line, and Port Adelaide comfortably covered the 27.5-point spread.

The forward and ruck ratings pointed this way before a ball was bounced, Port Adelaide rated stronger in both categories, 1070 to 979 forward and 1132 to 1054 in the ruck. Sunday just confirmed it. Geelong's recent form was the better story coming in. Port Adelaide's control of the footy was the better story on the day, and it wasn't close.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 30 | 20 | 19 | 26 | 95 |
| Geelong Cats | 24 | 13 | 8 | 20 | 65 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **404** | Disposals | 332 |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 124 |
| **46** | Clearances | 28 |
| **58** | Inside 50s | 35 |
| **127** | Marks | 89 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| **66** | Tackles | 53 |
| **53** | Hit-outs | 23 |
| **65** | Intercepts | 56 |
| **75.0%** | Disposal eff. | 72.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Port Adelaide defied the model's 57% prediction for Geelong Cats, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 30 points. The game's 160 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 176. Port Adelaide led 50–37 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 2/4 on this match. Port Adelaide covered the 27.5-point line. The under 184.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.24 (edge -23.6%) — model probability 57.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +27.5 @ $1.89 (edge +26.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 1 · Predicted total: 176

### H2H History (Last 5) — Geelong Cats lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R21 | Geelong Cats | 153 – 65 | Port Adelaide |
| 2025 | R10 | Port Adelaide | 39 – 115 | Geelong Cats |
| 2024 | WF | Port Adelaide | 54 – 138 | Geelong Cats |
| 2024 | R9 | Geelong Cats | 95 – 101 | Port Adelaide |
| 2023 | R21 | Geelong Cats | 97 – 85 | Port Adelaide |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 47 · 48 | 58 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 93/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.3/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10/g | 11.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.8% | 61.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 22 · 16 | 17 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.3/g | 28.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 70% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 10 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 102/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.3/g | 13/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 77.1% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.95/g (lg 3.79) +4% · Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.41) -5% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.5) -12%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.31/g (lg 1.17) +12% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.48) +10% · Key Forwards 3.82/g (lg 3.79) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 14 in 6g | 24/10g (3·2·1·4·3·2·3·2·2·2) | 12/8g | 105/54g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 29' 42' 73' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 10 in 6g | 11/10g (1·0·0·0·2·2·2·1·2·1) | 2/5g | 14/9g | 58% | — | 🏉 24' 91' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 10 in 6g | 15/10g (1·0·1·3·0·3·1·2·2·2) | 3/6g | 42/41g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 68% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 9 in 6g | 13/10g (0·0·3·1·2·0·3·2·0·2) | 0/1g | 4/5g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/16g | 47/123g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 5/10g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 13/16g | 51% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/7g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 9/32g | 22% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/24g | 26% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 8/45g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 16/59g | 24% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 11/76g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/12g | 31/79g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/21g | 54/137g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/68g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 16% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 24/65g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/15g | 8% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 17 in 5g | 26/10g (0·4·2·3·0·3·0·1·3·10) | 53/19g | 53/20g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 20' 48' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 13 in 6g | 20/10g (4·1·1·1·1·5·0·4·2·1) | 6/4g | 4/4g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 82' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 9 in 5g | 14/10g (1·2·0·1·1·2·1·3·2·1) | 10/6g | 10/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 8 in 6g | 16/10g (1·3·0·4·4·0·2·1·0·1) | 4/4g | 5/5g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 6 in 5g | 11/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·1·3·1·1) | 9/10g | 2/4g | 70% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 5 in 6g | 10/10g (2·0·2·1·1·3·1·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 5/4g | 68% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 6/9g | 8/8g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 9/11g | 8/12g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 1/12g | 1/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 3 in 2g | 12/10g (2·0·1·1·2·0·3·0·1·2) | 19/23g | 38/43g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 64% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 8/10g | 11/11g | 52% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/13g | 4% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 4/13g | 20% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/19g | 6/23g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 4/8g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Bruhn | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 2/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/10g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Wines | 22.5 | $1.85 | 61% | 27 ✗ |
| Zak Butters | 22.5 | $1.80 | 31% | 30 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 79% | 24 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 34 ✗ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 87% | 17 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.96 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 14 ✓ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.93 | 79% | 30 ✓ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.93 | 76% | 25 ✓ |
| Tanner Bruhn ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 86% | 24 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 72% | 27 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.76 | 84% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Bowes ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 22 ✗ |
| James Worpel | 18.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 12 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 14 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.83 | 68% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-port-adelaide-v-geelong-cats
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-04-25 12:03 UTC (latest tip update)