# Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 112 – 63 Gold Coast SUNS

_Hawthorn run riot over Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 62 – 39 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 42% / Gold Coast SUNS 58% · University of Tasmania Stadium · Sat, 25 Apr, 12:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Nick Watson (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Mitch Lewis (6' Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (10' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Finn Maginness (22' ×2), Massimo DAmbrosio (33'), Jarman Impey (37'), Connor Macdonald (46'), Conor Nash (73'), Tom Barrass (89'), Final quarter (28m 47s)Jack Ginnivan (64') · Gold Coast SUNS: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (26'), Lachie Weller (50'), Ben Long (53' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Humphrey (61' ×2), Ben King (71' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 58% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 49 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Apr 2026, 08:14 am · Last updated: 25 Apr 2026, 03:41 pm_

Hawthorn 112–63 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 7 at University of Tasmania Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast SUNS spent the afternoon trying to force the issue, Hawthorn spent it happy to just keep the ball. That's the story in one line, and the scoreboard backs it up: Hawthorn 112, Gold Coast SUNS 63, at University of Tasmania Stadium.

The SUNS actually won territory. They went inside 50 sixty times to Hawthorn's 54, more raids forward than the winning side managed. Didn't matter. Territory without composure is just running in circles, and Hawthorn made sure of that by winning the footy itself, 437 disposals to 345, at 75.7% efficiency against 69.3%. Every time Gold Coast built pressure, Hawthorn had the ball back within a possession or two.

The quarter-by-quarter tells you this wasn't a slow squeeze, it was there from the start. Hawthorn led 28-14 at quarter time, 62-39 at the half, 81-60 at the three-quarter mark. The margin barely moved as a percentage of the scoreboard all day, Hawthorn just kept adding to it, and the last quarter was the biggest gap yet, 31 points to 3. Whatever plan Gold Coast had for slowing things down, it didn't survive contact.

Marks tell the same story as the disposals. Hawthorn took 99 to Gold Coast's 67, and inside attacking 50 it was 12 to 10, a smaller gap but still theirs. Clean hands, controlled entries, patience rewarded. Gold Coast's approach looked more like volume for volume's sake, more forward thrusts but less to show for each one.

Hawthorn also won the fight for it. Forty hit-outs to 32 gave the midfield first use, contested possessions went their way 141 to 132, and tackle numbers were lopsided too, 82 to 64. That's a side putting bodies on the ball and bodies on opponents, and it explains the 78 intercepts to 69 sitting alongside everything else. Hawthorn were reading the connect-the-dots version of the game while Gold Coast were still drawing new lines.

None of this matches what was expected walking in. Gold Coast came in rated higher in three of four key areas, midfield 1063 to 999, forwards 1055 to 1030, ruck 1016 to 966, and the model gave them a 58% chance of the win with a 4-point margin. Instead Hawthorn's actual ruck output, on the day, flipped that whole ledger, and the final margin landed at 49, not 4. The combined score of 175 came in under the predicted 193 as well, so even the shootout read was off.

For Gold Coast, the volume of forward entries suggests the ambition was there, and their inside 50 form coming in, 43 per game against Hawthorn's 56.7, makes the 60 they managed here look like an overcorrection that didn't stick the landing. Recent average margin had Gold Coast in positive territory, +1.5, against Hawthorn's minus 6.2. Form lines like that are exactly why the model liked them. On this day, they just didn't fire.

Four picks out, four missed, an honest miss for the model and a fair one. Sometimes the side with fewer forward thrusts just does more with what it's got.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 28 | 34 | 19 | 31 | 112 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 14 | 25 | 21 | 3 | 63 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **437** | Disposals | 345 |
| **141** | Contested poss. | 132 |
| **40** | Clearances | 37 |
| 54 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| **99** | Marks | 67 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **82** | Tackles | 64 |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 32 |
| **78** | Intercepts | 69 |
| **75.7%** | Disposal eff. | 69.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 58% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 49 points. The game's 175 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 193. Hawthorn led 62–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.22 (edge +13.3%) — model probability 58.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +6.5 @ $1.90 (edge +10.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 180.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 4 · Predicted total: 193

### H2H History (Last 5) — Gold Coast SUNS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Gold Coast SUNS | 97 – 113 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | R10 | Gold Coast SUNS | 104 – 96 | Hawthorn | not priced |
| 2024 | R5 | Gold Coast SUNS | 109 – 56 | Hawthorn | not priced |
| 2023 | R15 | Gold Coast SUNS | 101 – 34 | Hawthorn | not priced |
| 2022 | R21 | Hawthorn | 70 – 63 | Gold Coast SUNS | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 75 · 53 | 78 · 44 |
| Goal Assists | 5.7/g | 7.7/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.7/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.8/g | 12.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 69.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 26 | 12 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 116/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 17/g | 18.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.7% | 71.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 1 | 8 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.2/g | 16/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.2% | 81.9% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Midfielders 2.57/g (lg 2.5) +3% · Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.17) +3% · Forwards 4.43/g (lg 4.41) +0%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.56/g (lg 2.5) +2% · Key Forwards 3.42/g (lg 3.79) -10% · Forwards 3.95/g (lg 4.41) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at UTAS Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 19 in 5g | 39/10g (7·2·3·5·3·4·5·4·3·3) | 31/14g | 0/0g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 35' 40' 91' 81' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 16 in 6g | 21/10g (1·1·2·1·2·4·1·3·1·5) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 72' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 10 in 6g | 14/10g (0·1·0·3·1·0·1·2·3·3) | 7/4g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 7 in 6g | 13/10g (2·3·0·1·2·1·0·2·1·1) | 9/4g | 0/0g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (0·3·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 56% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 2 in 1g | 12/10g (0·3·2·2·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 22' 82' |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jack Dalton | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 89' |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 24 in 6g | 36/10g (3·7·0·2·4·5·7·3·2·3) | 14/6g | 0/0g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' 79' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 10 in 4g | 14/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·3·4·0·3) | 9/15g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 9 in 6g | 15/10g (3·1·2·0·2·1·1·0·3·2) | 8/8g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 62' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 9 in 6g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·4·3·0·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 59% | — | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 6 in 3g | 13/10g (2·1·0·2·1·0·1·2·2·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 4 in 3g | 14/10g (0·3·3·0·1·3·0·4·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 61' 67' |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 6/11g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 3 in 6g | 7/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 51% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·3·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | KF | no games | 20/10g (2·0·4·4·4·2·1·3·0·0) | 7/6g | 0/0g | 80% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 30 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 28 ✗ |
| Karl Amon ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 31 ✗ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 20 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 22 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 75% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Battle ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 29 ✗ |
| Blake Hardwick ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 22 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 18.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 21 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 17.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Weddle ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 19 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.80 | 77% | 18 ✓ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 73% | 21 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 28 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 23 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 83% | 21 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 21 ✗ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-hawthorn-v-gold-coast-suns
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-04-25 05:41 UTC (latest tip update)