AFL | Round 7

Hawthorn defied the model's 58% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 49 points. The game's 175 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 193. Hawthorn led 62–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. A tough result for the model — all 4 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

58%Gold Coast SUNSFavourite

Hawthorn

42%

Gold Coast SUNS

58%

✨

AI Match Overview

Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 4.0 points with a combined total of 193.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Gold Coast SUNS to Win @2.22

Lost ✗

Edge

+13.3%

✗

Line / Spread

Gold Coast SUNS +6.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+10.5%

✗

Margin Band

Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 180.5 @1.89

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.1%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Hawthorn	W W L L L	80.8
Gold Coast SUNS	W W L L L	83.3

Avg Conceded

85.4

Hawthorn

72.5

Gold Coast SUNS

Avg Margin

-6.2

Hawthorn

1.5

Gold Coast SUNS

Disposals

337.5

Hawthorn

368.6

Gold Coast SUNS

Inside 50s

56.7

Hawthorn

43.0

Gold Coast SUNS

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Gold Coast SUNS hold the ELO advantage (1525 vs 1518), but the market favours Hawthorn (@1.82).

The model sides with ELO — Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HAW

1518Overall1525

GCS

ELO difference: -7 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

999Midfield1063

GCS +64

1030Forwards1055

GCS +25

986Defence990

Even

966Ruck1016

GCS +49

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HAW

Stat

GCS

1.9

Wins (Last 5)

2.2

80.8pts

Avg Score

83.3pts

85.4pts

Avg Conceded

72.5pts

-6.2pts

Avg Margin

1.5pts

337.5

Disposals

368.6

56.7

Inside 50s

43.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

SUNS

Midfield ELO11.0%

SUNS

Recent Win Rate10.0%

SUNS

Forward Line ELO9.0%

SUNS

Defensive ELO8.0%

SUNS

Venue Advantage7.0%

Hawthorn

H2H History6.0%

—

Model Confidence

58%

Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 193 · Line: -4.0

0/4 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props