Win Probability
AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 53% prediction for North Melbourne — a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 203 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 178. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
47%
North Melbourne
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives North Melbourne a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. GWS GIANTS are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but North Melbourne counter with overall balance which tips the scales. GWS GIANTS carry a 118-point ELO rating advantage (1529 vs 1411). The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 3.9 points with a combined total of 178.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
North Melbourne to Win @2.79
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.4%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +15.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+19.4%
Margin Band
North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 186.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W W W L L | 105.3 |
North Melbourne | W W W L L | 101.2 |
Avg Conceded
87.1
GWS GIANTS
86.3
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
24.9
GWS GIANTS
13.3
North Melbourne
Disposals
366.8
GWS GIANTS
338.6
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.4
GWS GIANTS
53.9
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
North Melbourne predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 178 · Line: -3.9
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.