# GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne — AFL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 105 – 98 North Melbourne

_GWS GIANTS stand tall over North Melbourne in a tight one._

Half time: 49 – 49 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 47% / North Melbourne 53% · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Sun, 26 Apr, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Jesse Hogan (25' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Phoenix Gothard (35'), Aaron Cadman (37' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Stringer (40' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Brent Daniels (55'), Harvey Thomas (65'), Toby Greene (67' ×2), Xavier OHalloran (77') · North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (4' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), George Wardlaw (11'), Nick Larkey (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Spargo (22'), Lachy Dovaston (45'), Jy Simpkin (70'), Luke Parker (75'), Finn OSullivan (79'), Jack Darling (83' Tipped ⚡), Harry Sheezel (85')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 53% | Lost |
| GWS GIANTS | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Apr 2026, 08:14 am · Last updated: 27 Apr 2026, 11:31 am_

GWS GIANTS 105–98 North Melbourne in AFL Round 7 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS Giants started this one behind the scoreboard and finished seven points in front, and the gap between those two facts is where the game lived. North Melbourne led 27-20 at quarter time, doing exactly what a side with a weaker rating profile needs to do: get out fast and make the favourite chase it. By half time the margin had been erased completely, locked at 49-49, and the contest reset from scratch.

The third quarter is where it turned. GWS Giants took a 70-64 lead into three-quarter time, a six-point shift that held up as the difference for the rest of the night. They didn't blow it out from there. North Melbourne kept coming, and the final term was close enough that the result was still live until the siren, with GWS Giants closing it out 105-98.

Seven points. That was the final margin, and it's a strange one given the raw numbers. North Melbourne finished with 391 disposals to 376, better disposal efficiency at 77.0% to 73.9%, more clearances at 36 to 34, and a big edge in marks, 94 to 78. On volume and ball use, North Melbourne were arguably the better side across the four quarters. They just didn't have enough to show for it on the scoreboard.

The difference was what each side did with the ball once it got forward. GWS Giants booted 14 marks inside 50 to North Melbourne's 8, a substantial gap that points to cleaner delivery and better use of the space when it mattered. Inside 50s were close, 56 to 54 in the Giants' favour, but it was the quality of those entries, not the quantity, that told. Hit-outs went to GWS Giants as well, 36 to 29, giving their midfield first use more often than the clearance count alone suggests. Contested possession was dead level at 130 apiece, and intercepts were similarly tight, 56 to 55, which underlines just how even this contest was in the guts of the game.

Going in, the ratings had GWS Giants well clear across the park: 1023 to 862 in the midfield, 1013 to 880 up forward, 1061 to 876 in defence and 1027 to 866 in the ruck. Recent form backed that up too, with GWS Giants averaging 105.3 points a game across their last five compared to North Melbourne's 101.2, and a much healthier average winning margin of 24.9 points to 13.3. On paper this was meant to be comfortable. On the day, North Melbourne made them work for every point of it.

Alphr's model actually had North Melbourne as 53% favourites here, with GWS Giants rated 1529 to North Melbourne's 1411 but a predicted margin of just 3.9 points in North Melbourne's favour. The Giants defied that read entirely, turning a projected loss into a seven-point win, a genuinely notable result given how the model saw it. The model's combined total projection of 178 points also undersold this game badly. The two sides put up 203 between them, 25 points more than expected. On the line, North Melbourne covered the 15.5 points comfortably. It finished 1 from 4 for the model on this match, a reminder that ratings and form guides only tell you so much once the ball is bounced.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 20 | 29 | 21 | 35 | 105 |
| North Melbourne | 27 | 22 | 15 | 34 | 98 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 376 | Disposals | **391** |
| 130 | Contested poss. | 130 |
| 34 | Clearances | **36** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 54 |
| 78 | Marks | **94** |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 59 | Tackles | **63** |
| **36** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| **56** | Intercepts | 55 |
| 73.9% | Disposal eff. | **77.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 53% prediction for North Melbourne, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 203 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 178. The model went 1/4 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 15.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $2.79 (edge +17.4%) — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +15.5 @ $1.90 (edge +19.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 4 · Predicted total: 178

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | GWS GIANTS | 133 – 79 | North Melbourne |
| 2024 | R1 | GWS GIANTS | 121 – 82 | North Melbourne |
| 2023 | R13 | North Melbourne | 75 – 103 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2022 | R13 | North Melbourne | 53 – 102 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2021 | R13 | North Melbourne | 94 – 94 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 56 · 61 | 66 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 116/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.7/g | 15.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.2/g | 10.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 74.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 19 | 10 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 148/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.3/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72% | 73.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 0 · 7 | 9 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 8.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.7% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Key Forwards 5.12/g (lg 3.79) +35% · Defenders 1.52/g (lg 1.16) +31% · Rucks 0.63/g (lg 0.49) +29%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.16) +5% · Key Forwards 3.71/g (lg 3.79) -2% · Rucks 0.47/g (lg 0.49) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 9 in 6g | 16/10g (3·1·3·0·5·0·1·2·1·0) | 29/15g | 7/5g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' 67' 73' |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 7 in 5g | 15/10g (2·1·2·0·3·3·0·2·0·2) | 21/8g | 26/12g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 28' |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 7 in 6g | 7/6g (1·0·2·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 83% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 4 in 1g | 24/10g (2·6·1·3·2·4·2·0·0·4) | 6/2g | 10/9g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 76' 80' |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 3 in 1g | 7/10g (3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/3g | 9/13g | 50% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 2/4g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 16/29g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 3 in 2g | 13/10g (1·0·2·1·1·2·1·2·2·1) | 5/4g | 4/8g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 3 in 6g | 12/10g (3·2·4·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 16/14g | 55/32g | 76% | — | 🏉 67' 64' |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Oliver Hannaford | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/11g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 14/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Leake | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/15g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/26g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 17 in 6g | 31/10g (1·5·5·3·4·6·2·2·1·2) | 12/5g | 0/0g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 60' 87' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 13 in 6g | 22/9g (3·3·3·3·0·2·3·2·3) | 3/1g | 3/1g | 89% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 89% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 13 in 6g | 23/10g (2·0·5·3·1·2·1·2·1·6) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 63' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 9 in 6g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·3·3·0·2) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 6 in 6g | 12/10g (3·2·0·1·2·2·1·1·0·0) | 6/6g | 0/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 4 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·3·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 29/15g | 3/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 1/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Lachy Dovaston | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 1/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 20/26g | 1/1g | 40% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 2/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 82% | 32 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.90 | 74% | 26 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.83 | 90% | 30 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 23.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 21 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 89% | 16 ✓ |
| Toby Greene ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 78% | 28 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 15 ✓ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 24 ✗ |
| Jayden Laverde ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 10 ✓ |
| Phoenix Gothard ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.80 | 79% | 10 ✓ |
| Xavier O'Halloran ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 83% | 18 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 31.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 32 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 26.5 | $1.95 | 53% | 20 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 30 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 25.5 | $1.80 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 21.5 | $1.84 | 40% | 16 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.77 | 79% | 25 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens | 20.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 25 ✗ |
| Cameron Zurhaar ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 98% | 12 ✓ |
| George Wardlaw ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Powell | 18.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 12 ✓ |
| Luke McDonald | 16.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-27 01:31 UTC (latest tip update)