# Fremantle v Carlton — AFL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 103 – 89 Carlton

_Fremantle see off Carlton._

Half time: 52 – 41 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 46% / Carlton 54% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 25 Apr, 08:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Josh Treacy (8' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (34' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mason Cox (59' ×2), Michael Frederick (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Sharp (81' ×2), Final quarter (31m 56s)Shai Bolton (63'), Shai Bolton (65' Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (69') · Carlton: Mitch McGovern (5' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Brodie Kemp (23' ×4), Francis Evans (41' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Moir (76' ×2), Matt Carroll (81'), Sam Walsh (88'), Patrick Cripps (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 54% | Lost |
| Fremantle | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 7, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Apr 2026, 08:14 am · Last updated: 26 Apr 2026, 09:49 am_

Fremantle 103–89 Carlton in AFL Round 7 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton did plenty right and still lost by 14. That's the frustrating bit for them. They won the contested footy, 132 to 129, they won the intercept count, 67 to 63, and they had more looks at goal with 53 inside 50s to Fremantle's 51. On the stats that usually decide these things, Carlton were competitive or better. It wasn't enough.

Where it fell apart was the ruck contest and what flowed from it. Fremantle won hit-outs 39 to 23, a gap that big feeds first use of the ball at every stoppage, and it showed up in clearances too, 34 to 29 in Fremantle's favour. Carlton came in with the higher ruck rating, 1128 to 1054, and the bigger midfield rating, 1120 to 1026. None of that showed up on the day.

The disposal count tells the rest of the story. Fremantle finished with 404 to Carlton's 356, and used it better, hitting targets at 79.2% against Carlton's 74.7%. More the ball, cleaner with it, and it turned into scoreboard pressure through the air too, Fremantle marking 103 times to 85, with 16 marks inside 50 to Carlton's 12.

The scoreboard reflected all of it from early. Fremantle led 21-13 at quarter time, stretched it to 52-41 at the main break, then 73-55 at three-quarter time, an 18-point buffer built on the back of that ruck and clearance dominance. Carlton's best patch of footy came in the last quarter, outscoring Fremantle 34 to 30 to trim the margin back to 14 by the final siren. Too little, too late, given the hole they were already in.

Fremantle 103, Carlton 89 is the final line, and it's a result that runs against the pre-match numbers. Carlton came in with the better form, 3.8 wins from their last five compared to Fremantle's 1.64, scoring at 92 a game against Fremantle's 82.5. The model had Carlton favourites by 0.9 points, a 54% call, and had the total sitting at 169. The game blew past that, finishing at 192, and Fremantle didn't just cover the tip, they won by 14.

So the model went 1 from 4 on this one. Carlton were the pick, Carlton were the shorter price, and Carlton still walked out with more turnovers created and more of the territory battle won, only to be undone at the source, the ruck and clearance work that Fremantle dominated all afternoon. Form and ratings said one thing. Optus Stadium said another.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 21 | 31 | 21 | 30 | 103 |
| Carlton | 13 | 28 | 14 | 34 | 89 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| **404** | Disposals | 356 |
| 129 | Contested poss. | **132** |
| **34** | Clearances | 29 |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **53** |
| **103** | Marks | 85 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **61** | Tackles | 60 |
| **39** | Hit-outs | 23 |
| 63 | Intercepts | **67** |
| **79.2%** | Disposal eff. | 74.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Fremantle defied the model's 54% prediction for Carlton, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 192 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 169. The model went 1/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 39.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $6.70 (edge +39.0%) — model probability 54.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +40.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 1 · Predicted total: 169

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 34 | 46 · 60 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 82/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.7/g | 16.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 6.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 69.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 26 · 14 | 17 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 171/g | 154/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.2/g | 21.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 67% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 1 · 5 | 5 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.3/g | 11.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.3% | 74.5% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.57/g (lg 0.48) +19% · Defenders 1.3/g (lg 1.16) +12% · Forwards 4.75/g (lg 4.43) +7%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.43) -5% · Midfielders 2.19/g (lg 2.48) -12% · Defenders 1.02/g (lg 1.16) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 14 in 6g | 18/10g (0·0·3·1·1·0·2·4·2·5) | 5/3g | 65/42g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 43' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 13 in 6g | 22/10g (2·2·3·2·2·4·4·2·0·1) | 5/4g | 74/46g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 17' 39' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 10 in 6g | 15/10g (1·2·0·2·3·3·1·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 16/13g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 7 in 6g | 12/10g (2·0·2·1·2·2·0·1·1·1) | 11/11g | 37/26g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 27/70g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 40/45g | 68% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 33/92g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 7/33g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (2·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 16/17g | 65% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 8/8g | 40/57g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·3·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 14/45g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 9/56g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/27g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/65g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 21/70g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/25g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/41g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/21g | 32% | — | 🏉 81' 87' |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/93g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 12/13g | 10/9g | 34% | — | 🏉 59' 85' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (1·2·0·4·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 3/7g | 65/58g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' 68' |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 12 in 6g | 18/10g (4·0·1·1·0·2·3·2·2·3) | 4/5g | 5/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 51' 70' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (0·2·0·1·2·0·1·0·2·2) | 2/7g | 2/7g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 7 in 6g | 13/10g (1·5·0·0·1·1·0·3·0·2) | 0/3g | 5/3g | 32% | — | 🏉 23' 38' 46' 86' |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 3 in 5g | 11/10g (3·0·3·0·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 18/13g | 17/11g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 2 in 4g | 14/10g (0·1·2·4·2·3·0·0·1·1) | 3/2g | 3/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.67 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 5/8g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 13/45g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (0·1·0·4·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 1/1g | 2/2g | 73% | — | 🏉 76' 82' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 2/11g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 6/11g | 34% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/9g | 18% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Liam Reidy | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 3/5g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/10g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 28.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 22 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.80 | 77% | 25 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 24.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 26 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.93 | 84% | 23 ✓ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 80% | 21 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 21.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 33 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 21 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus | 20.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson | 19.5 | $1.89 | 61% | 14 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 32 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 24.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 31 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 83% | 20 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 69% | 21 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 22.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 22 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 19 ✓ |
| Cooper Lord ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.77 | 76% | 18 ✓ |
| Zac Williams | 18.5 | $1.84 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-25 23:49 UTC (latest tip update)