AFL | Round 7

Fremantle defied the model's 54% prediction for Carlton, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 192 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 169. The model went 1/4 on this match. The Draw margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

54%CarltonFavourite

Fremantle

46%

Carlton

54%

✨

AI Match Overview

Carlton hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Fremantle are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Carlton ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Carlton carry a 56-point ELO rating advantage (1584 vs 1529). Recent form favours Carlton with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Fremantle.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Carlton to Win @6.70

Lost ✗

Edge

+39.0%

✗

Line / Spread

Carlton +39.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+40.4%

✓

Margin Band

Carlton Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 175.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.4%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Fremantle	W W L L L	82.6
Carlton	W W W W L	92.0

Avg Conceded

83.7

Fremantle

91.5

Carlton

Avg Margin

10.8

Fremantle

-9.1

Carlton

Disposals

378.6

Fremantle

373.0

Carlton

Inside 50s

51.4

Fremantle

55.0

Carlton

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1584 vs 1529), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.18).

The model sides with ELO, Carlton predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

FRE

1529Overall1584

CAR

ELO difference: -56 in favour of Carlton

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1026Midfield1120

CAR +94

1026Forwards1068

CAR +42

1020Defence1051

CAR +31

1054Ruck1128

CAR +75

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

FRE

Stat

CAR

1.6

Wins (Last 5)

3.8

82.6pts

Avg Score

92.0pts

83.7pts

Avg Conceded

91.5pts

10.8pts

Avg Margin

-9.1pts

378.6

Disposals

373.0

51.4

Inside 50s

55.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Carlton

Midfield ELO11.0%

Carlton

Recent Win Rate10.0%

—

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Carlton

Defensive ELO8.0%

Carlton

Venue Advantage7.0%

Fremantle

H2H History6.0%

—

Model Confidence

54%

Carlton predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 169 · Line: -0.9

1/4 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props