AFL | Round 7

alphr.com.au

Thu 23 Apr7:30pm
WBDWBD
SYDSYD
Fri 24 Apr7:40pm
RICRIC
MELMEL
Sat 25 Apr12:15pm
HAWHAW
GCSGCS
Sat 25 Apr3:15pm
ESSESS
COLCOL
Sat 25 Apr6:35pm
PORPOR
GEEGEE
Sat 25 Apr8:15pm
FREFRE
CARCAR
Sun 26 Apr1:10pm
STKSTK
WCEWCE
Sun 26 Apr3:15pm
BRIBRI
ADEADE
Sun 26 Apr4:40pm
GWSGWS
NORNOR
FRE
Fremantle
VS
CAR
Carlton
OPTUS STADIUM • SATURDAY 25 APR, 8:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Fremantle defied the model's 54% prediction for Carlton — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 192 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 169. The model went 1/4 on this match. The Draw margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

54%CarltonFavourite

Fremantle

46%

Carlton

54%

✨

AI Match Overview

Carlton hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Fremantle are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Carlton ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Carlton carry a 56-point ELO rating advantage (1584 vs 1529). Recent form favours Carlton with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Fremantle.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Carlton to Win @6.70

Lost ✗

Edge

+39.0%

✗

Line / Spread

Carlton +39.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+40.4%

✓

Margin Band

Carlton Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 175.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.4%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Fremantle
W
W
L
L
L
82.6
Carlton
W
W
W
W
L
92.0

Avg Conceded

83.7

Fremantle

91.5

Carlton

Avg Margin

10.8

Fremantle

-9.1

Carlton

Disposals

378.6

Fremantle

373.0

Carlton

Inside 50s

51.4

Fremantle

55.0

Carlton

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1584 vs 1529), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.18).

The model sides with ELO — Carlton predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

FRE
1529Overall1584
CAR
ELO difference: -56 in favour of Carlton

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1026Midfield1120
CAR +94
1026Forwards1068
CAR +42
1020Defence1051
CAR +31
1054Ruck1128
CAR +75

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

FRE
Stat
CAR
1.6
Wins (Last 5)
3.8
82.6pts
Avg Score
92.0pts
83.7pts
Avg Conceded
91.5pts
10.8pts
Avg Margin
-9.1pts
378.6
Disposals
373.0
51.4
Inside 50s
55.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Carlton
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Carlton
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Carlton
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Carlton
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Fremantle
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

54%

Carlton predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 169 · Line: -0.9

1/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props