AFL | Round 7

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.2 but the actual margin was 77 points. The game's 197 points came in 32 points higher than the predicted 165. Collingwood led 22–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 77. The model went 1/4 on this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

54%CollingwoodFavourite

Essendon

46%

Collingwood

54%

✨

AI Match Overview

Collingwood hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Essendon are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. Collingwood carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1518 vs 1491). Recent form favours Collingwood with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Essendon by 5.2 points with a combined total of 165.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Collingwood to Win @1.41

Winner ✓

Edge

-17.3%

✓

Line / Spread

Essendon +16.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+21.7%

✗

Margin Band

Essendon 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 179.5 @1.90

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.4%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Essendon	W L L L L	99.5
Collingwood	W W W L L	72.3

Avg Conceded

79.0

Essendon

71.3

Collingwood

Avg Margin

11.8

Essendon

25.5

Collingwood

Disposals

353.2

Essendon

352.0

Collingwood

Inside 50s

45.6

Essendon

52.7

Collingwood

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

ESS

1491Overall1518

COL

ELO difference: -28 in favour of Collingwood

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1011Midfield964

ESS +47

960Forwards1056

COL +95

989Defence1015

COL +26

986Ruck1064

COL +78

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

ESS

Stat

COL

1.1

Wins (Last 5)

3.1

99.5pts

Avg Score

72.3pts

79.0pts

Avg Conceded

71.3pts

11.8pts

Avg Margin

25.5pts

353.2

Disposals

352.0

45.6

Inside 50s

52.7

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Collingwood

Midfield ELO11.0%

Essendon

Recent Win Rate10.0%

—

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Collingwood

Defensive ELO8.0%

Collingwood

Venue Advantage7.0%

Essendon

H2H History6.0%

—

Model Confidence

54%

Collingwood predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 165 · Line: +5.2

1/4 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props