# Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 127 – 75 Adelaide Crows

_Brisbane Lions run riot over Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 62 – 39 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 47% / Adelaide Crows 53% · Gabba · Sun, 26 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna (2' ×2 1st), Oscar Allen (7' Tipped ⚡), Hugh McCluggage (14' ×2), Charlie Cameron (21' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (55' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (56'), Will Ashcroft (79'), Sam Draper (86'), Final quarter (29m 10s)Kai Lohmann (65'), Darcy Fort (93') · Adelaide Crows: Luke Pedlar (6' ×3), Izak Rankine (16' ×2), Riley Thilthorpe (23' Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (40' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (43' ×2), Ben Keays (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 53% | Lost |
| Brisbane Lions | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 52 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Apr 2026, 08:14 am · Last updated: 27 Apr 2026, 11:31 am_

Brisbane Lions 127–75 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 7 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Brisbane Lions as the narrow favourite, up by 2.5 points, with the game finishing somewhere near 175 total points. Brisbane won by 52. The game produced 202. Every one of the four picks missed, and not by a little.

Worth remembering what the model was working with. Adelaide came in rated higher across the park: 975 to 916 in midfield, 991 to 966 forward, even the ruck battle favoured them 1072 to 983. On paper this was a Crows side built to control the contest. On the scoreboard, none of that mattered.

The recent form lines told a different story to the ratings, and in hindsight they were the ones worth trusting. Brisbane arrived averaging 99.45 points a game and conceding just 70.49, a margin of plus 24.9. Adelaide's recent form had them at minus 8.7, leaking 91.93 a game. Two form lines pointing in opposite directions, and this result sat squarely on Brisbane's side of that ledger.

The scoreboard shows how thoroughly the front-runner just kept going. Brisbane led 29-25 at quarter time, a game still very much alive at that point. By half time it was 62-39. By three-quarter time, 104-48. Brisbane didn't just hold a lead, they kept adding to it every quarter while Adelaide's scoring rate barely moved. That's not a team hanging on, that's a team getting run over in stages.

The clearance count explains plenty. Brisbane won clearances 45 to 30 and used the ball 397 times to Adelaide's 353. Inside 50s went 64 to 43 in Brisbane's favour, and their forward line finished the job better too, 16 marks inside 50 to 11. Against a side rated stronger in midfield and forward line coming in, Brisbane simply out-worked them at the source and made it count where it mattered.

Adelaide's numbers aren't all bad, which makes the margin more interesting. They out-tackled Brisbane 54 to 45, won more hit-outs, 38 to 30, and were actually more efficient with ball in hand, 76.2% to 74.8%. That's a side that competed hard in the areas that don't always show up in the final margin. Problem is, none of it translated into scoreboard pressure. You can tackle all day, but if the other side is getting 21 more entries inside 50 and cashing them in cleaner, the effort numbers just become a footnote.

For a model built on ratings and recent history, this one's a clean miss to file away. The ELO gap said Adelaide were the better side, 1516 to 1472, and the margin was picked from the wrong end entirely. What actually happened lines up far more with the form column than the ratings column, which is its own kind of lesson.

Brisbane's night at the Gabba was as complete as the numbers suggest: more of the ball, more entries, more scoreboard pressure sustained across all four quarters. Adelaide had their moments in the contest stats and lost anyway. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's filed firmly under misses for the model.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 29 | 33 | 42 | 23 | 127 |
| Adelaide Crows | 25 | 14 | 9 | 27 | 75 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **397** | Disposals | 353 |
| **143** | Contested poss. | 121 |
| **45** | Clearances | 30 |
| **64** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **131** | Marks | 97 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 45 | Tackles | **54** |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **38** |
| **65** | Intercepts | 61 |
| 74.8% | Disposal eff. | **76.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 53% prediction for Adelaide Crows, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 202 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 175. Brisbane Lions led 62–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $3.34 (edge +23.3%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +21.5 @ $1.90 (edge +19.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 3 · Predicted total: 175

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Brisbane Lions | 144 – 91 | Adelaide Crows | Brisbane Lions 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R13 | Adelaide Crows | 68 – 63 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |
| 2024 | R17 | Brisbane Lions | 97 – 86 | Adelaide Crows | not priced |
| 2024 | R9 | Adelaide Crows | 90 – 90 | Brisbane Lions | not priced |
| 2023 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 99 – 93 | Adelaide Crows | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 65 · 51 | 57 · 50 |
| Goal Assists | 5.7/g | 6.2/g |
| Disposals | 85/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.2/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 10/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.3% | 63.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 20 | 19 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 163/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.8/g | 18.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 68.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 5 | 2 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.8/g | 9.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.7% | 80.8% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.16) +5% · Forwards 4.28/g (lg 4.41) -3% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.5) -8%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.49) -2% · Forwards 4.22/g (lg 4.41) -4% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.5) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 12 in 6g | 18/10g (1·0·1·4·4·2·2·0·1·3) | 24/9g | 173/93g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' 36' 73' 72' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 11 in 6g | 19/10g (2·3·1·2·2·1·2·4·1·1) | 3/3g | 33/27g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 11 in 5g | 17/10g (1·1·2·1·1·3·2·3·0·3) | 3/3g | 39/21g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 75' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 11 in 6g | 17/10g (2·4·0·0·1·1·2·3·3·1) | 16/8g | 13/11g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 7 in 6g | 14/10g (3·1·2·1·1·1·2·0·1·2) | 10/9g | 78/84g | 72% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 7 in 5g | 16/10g (0·1·3·2·3·1·2·2·2·0) | 10/7g | 82/84g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' 78' 89' |
| – | Lincoln McCarthy | FWD | 6 in 5g | 10/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·2·1) | 11/8g | 83/64g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/14g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 3 in 5g | 10/10g (1·3·2·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 5/5g | 2/7g | 56% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 12/34g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Keidean Coleman | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 6/34g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (0·2·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 13/29g | 36% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/23g | 18% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·4·0·0·1) | 8/11g | 68/104g | 48% | — | 🏉 14' 91' |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/14g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/10g | 7/25g | 16% | — | 🏉 2' 51' |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/40g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 4/118g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 7/43g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 38/82g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 23/114g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 11 in 6g | 20/10g (1·3·2·3·3·2·1·1·1·3) | 5/4g | 1/1g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 10 in 6g | 14/10g (0·2·0·2·1·2·1·1·4·1) | 7/6g | 1/2g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 10 in 5g | 18/10g (3·2·1·2·0·0·3·1·1·5) | 45/16g | 26/9g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (0·3·0·1·1·0·0·0·3·2) | 10/8g | 7/18g | 70% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 5 in 5g | 13/10g (2·1·3·1·1·1·1·0·2·1) | 8/9g | 3/6g | 88% | — | 🏉 16' 30' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 4 in 4g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 2/8g | 1/7g | 48% | — | 🏉 43' 83' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 62% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/7g | 3/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 1 in 5g | 10/10g (1·1·3·3·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 2/1g | 62% | — | 🏉 6' 69' 79' |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Edwards | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 30.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 42 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.85 | 68% | 36 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 26.5 | $1.77 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.85 | 72% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 22.5 | $1.92 | 60% | 22 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 21.5 | $1.77 | 65% | 21 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 67% | 22 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey | 20.5 | $1.77 | 59% | 29 ✗ |
| Keidean Coleman ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Conor McKenna ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 100% | 11 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 75% | 17 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 29 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 81% | 22 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 28 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 88% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 88% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 77% | 18 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.83 | 78% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-27 01:31 UTC (latest tip update)