Win Probability
AI Game Review
Brisbane Lions defied the model's 53% prediction for Adelaide Crows — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 202 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 175. Brisbane Lions led 62–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. A tough result for the model — all 4 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
47%
Adelaide Crows
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Adelaide Crows carry a 44-point ELO rating advantage (1516 vs 1472). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 2.5 points with a combined total of 175.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @3.34
Lost ✗
Edge
+23.3%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +21.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.0%
Margin Band
Brisbane Lions 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 189.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 99.5 |
Adelaide Crows | W W W L L | 79.0 |
Avg Conceded
70.5
Brisbane Lions
91.9
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
24.9
Brisbane Lions
-8.7
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
344.0
Brisbane Lions
350.0
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
43.4
Brisbane Lions
45.1
Adelaide Crows
ELO–Market Disagreement
Adelaide Crows hold the ELO advantage (1516 vs 1472), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.43).
The model sides with ELO — Adelaide Crows predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 175 · Line: +2.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.