# West Coast Eagles v Fremantle — AFL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 41 – 97 Fremantle

_Fremantle put West Coast Eagles to the sword._

Half time: 20 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 47% / Fremantle 53% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 19 Apr, 05:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Elliot Yeo (30'), Josh Lindsay (31'), Liam Baker (80' ×2) · Fremantle: Josh Treacy (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Patrick Voss (8' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (36' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (38'), Jordan Clark (48'), Neil Erasmus (84'), Shai Bolton (65' Tipped ⚡), Caleb Serong (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 53% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 56 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 6, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Apr 2026, 08:49 pm · Last updated: 19 Apr 2026, 08:59 pm_

West Coast Eagles 41–97 Fremantle in AFL Round 6 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

West Coast Eagles arrived at Optus Stadium rated stronger in three of four key areas: a higher midfield number, a better forward rating, even a slender edge in defence. On paper it should have been close. On the day, none of it held up.

The Eagles had actually been scoring well over their last five games, averaging 108.3 points, but they'd also been conceding 92.4, an average margin of minus 9.98 that points to a soft defensive record even in wins. Fremantle came in the other way, averaging 95.8 scored and just 85.4 conceded, a plus 4.18 margin. A leakier side met a tighter one, and 97 points conceded says the pattern held again.

The ruck battle was the first sign of trouble. Fremantle went in rated well clear at that position, 1045 to 936, and it played out exactly that way: 42 hit-outs to 18. That gave Fremantle first use of the footy at almost every stoppage, and it fed straight into a clearance count they won 28 to 24, despite West Coast holding the better midfield rating on paper.

The scoreboard reflects how one-sided it became. West Coast trailed 6 to 16 at quarter time, then 20 to 42 at half time, and 32 to 70 at the last change. By full time it was 41 to 97. The margin widened every quarter and West Coast never found a passage of play that pulled it back the other way.

Fremantle simply had more of the footy and did more with it. They finished with 365 disposals to West Coast's 314, and their disposal efficiency of 75.6% compared with 71.3% for the Eagles meant more of those possessions actually went somewhere useful. Contested ball was tighter, 119 to 114, but it was inside 50 where the gap really showed: Fremantle took 19 marks inside forward 50 to West Coast's 7, a number that spea

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 6 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 41 |
| Fremantle | 16 | 26 | 28 | 27 | 97 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 314 | Disposals | **365** |
| 114 | Contested poss. | **119** |
| 24 | Clearances | **28** |
| 49 | Inside 50s | **50** |
| 97 | Marks | **120** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| 45 | Tackles | **56** |
| 18 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| 64 | Intercepts | **71** |
| 71.3% | Disposal eff. | **75.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 56 points. Total score prediction of 142 was close to the actual 138, within 4 points. Fremantle led 20–42 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 186.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.10 (edge -38.1%) — model probability 52.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +43.5 @ $1.90 (edge +50.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 7 · Predicted total: 142

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 57 | 40 · 33 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 82/g | 81/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.8/g | 14/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 8.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 68.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 19 | 22 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 174/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.8/g | 29.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.5% | 69.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 13 | 0 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.4/g | 9.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.9% | 80.6% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.27/g (lg 4.44) -4% · Midfielders 2.21/g (lg 2.48) -11% · Key Forwards 3.27/g (lg 3.78) -13%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.75/g (lg 0.48) +56% · Midfielders 3.51/g (lg 2.48) +42% · Forwards 5.53/g (lg 4.44) +25%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 10 in 5g | 21/10g (2·3·1·2·3·3·1·4·1·1) | 18/8g | 95/61g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 7 in 5g | 14/10g (0·1·3·0·3·1·2·0·0·4) | 0/1g | 11/7g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 6 in 5g | 6/5g (0·2·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 4/2g | 80% | — | — |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 5 in 3g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2·2·1) | 6/16g | 24/59g | 36% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (1·2·2·1·1·1·0·3·1·0) | 24/23g | 104/86g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 4/9g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·2·0·0·2·0·1) | 6/4g | 15/23g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 8/23g | 32% | — | 🏉 80' 76' |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Harry Schoenberg | FWD | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (3·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 18/42g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/42g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 12/20g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 4/83g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 23/64g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 12 in 5g | 24/10g (3·2·2·3·2·2·4·4·2·0) | 9/6g | 73/45g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 10 in 5g | 15/10g (0·1·2·0·2·3·3·1·1·2) | 3/2g | 16/12g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 9 in 5g | 16/10g (3·0·0·3·1·1·0·2·4·2) | 14/6g | 60/41g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 41' 67' 75' 57' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 6 in 5g | 11/10g (0·2·0·2·1·2·2·0·1·1) | 17/10g | 36/25g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 5/10g | 26/69g | 40% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 4 in 5g | 16/10g (3·3·0·3·3·0·1·1·2·0) | 4/2g | 24/19g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 60' 60' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/14g | 33/91g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 7/8g | 39/44g | 66% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/4g | 7/32g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 3 in 5g | 9/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 16/16g | 69% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 40/56g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·0·3·0·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 14/44g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 3/64g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 21/69g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/24g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/40g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 8/55g | 8% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/92g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 13/8g | 10/8g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | no games | 11/10g (0·1·2·0·4·0·2·0·2·0) | 17/9g | 65/57g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/26g | 10% | — | 🏉 84' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 24 ✗ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 78% | 28 ✗ |
| Harley Reid ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 20 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 19 ✗ |
| Willem Duursma | 16.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 20 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 24 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 73% | 15 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 27 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 82% | 26 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 16 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus | 20.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 26 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 17.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 20 ✗ |
| Heath Chapman | 16.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Karl Worner | 16.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 13 ✓ |
| Corey Wagner | 16.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-19 10:59 UTC (latest tip update)