Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 56 points. Total score prediction of 142 was close to the actual 138, within 4 points. Fremantle led 20–42 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 186.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
47%
Fremantle
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Fremantle a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. West Coast Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Midfield ELO, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO, but Fremantle counter with ELO Difference which tips the scales. Fremantle carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1510 vs 1482). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 6.6 points with a combined total of 142.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
-38.1%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +43.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+50.1%
Margin Band
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 186.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | W W W L L | 108.3 |
Fremantle | W L L L L | 95.8 |
Avg Conceded
92.4
West Coast Eagles
85.4
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-10.0
West Coast Eagles
4.2
Fremantle
Disposals
342.6
West Coast Eagles
373.3
Fremantle
Inside 50s
51.8
West Coast Eagles
51.8
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Fremantle predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 142 · Line: +6.6
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