Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.4 but the actual margin was 41 points. The game's 173 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 139. Sydney Swans led 45–26 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 41. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 178.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
51%
GWS GIANTS
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Sydney Swans a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 10.4 points with a combined total of 139.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
-29.4%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +25.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.1%
Margin Band
Sydney Swans 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W L L L L | 102.5 |
GWS GIANTS | W W L L L | 77.3 |
Avg Conceded
100.0
Sydney Swans
73.1
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
-3.1
Sydney Swans
15.9
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
366.1
Sydney Swans
331.4
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
55.5
Sydney Swans
45.5
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 139 · Line: +10.4
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