Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 75 points. The game's 185 points came in 61 points higher than the predicted 124. North Melbourne led 63–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 75. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
55%
Richmond
45%
AI Match Overview
North Melbourne hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Richmond are far from out of this at 45%. Richmond are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but North Melbourne counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Richmond carry a 48-point ELO rating advantage (1469 vs 1421). The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 4.2 points with a combined total of 124.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
North Melbourne to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
-26.0%
Line / Spread
Richmond +26.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.3%
Margin Band
North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W L L L L | 76.9 |
Richmond | W L L L L | 102.1 |
Avg Conceded
67.1
North Melbourne
98.2
Richmond
Avg Margin
2.3
North Melbourne
23.8
Richmond
Disposals
368.0
North Melbourne
357.2
Richmond
Inside 50s
47.7
North Melbourne
51.5
Richmond
ELO–Market Disagreement
Richmond hold the ELO advantage (1469 vs 1421), but the market favours North Melbourne (@1.24).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
North Melbourne predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 124 · Line: +4.2
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