# North Melbourne v Richmond — AFL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 130 – 55 Richmond

_North Melbourne run riot over Richmond._

Half time: 63 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 55% / Richmond 45% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 19 Apr, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Zane Duursma (5' ×2 1st), Paul Curtis (12' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Spargo (16'), Nick Larkey (40' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Luke Davies-Uniacke (44'), Dylan Stephens (49'), Harry Sheezel (50'), Jack Darling (53' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Trembath (82' Tipped ⚡), Colby McKercher (90'), Final quarter (33m 17s)Cooper Trembath (69'), Tom Powell (79') · Richmond: Seth Campbell (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Lalor (89'), Jack Ross (91' ×2), Noah Balta (70'), Steely Green (89')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 55% | Won |
| Richmond | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 75 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Apr 2026, 08:49 pm · Last updated: 19 Apr 2026, 04:24 pm_

North Melbourne 130–55 Richmond in AFL Round 6 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two teams can play footy two completely different ways, and Saturday at Marvel Stadium was as clean an example as you'll find. Richmond came in rated stronger everywhere it counted on paper: better midfield, better forwards, better defence, better ruck. North Melbourne came in and just kept the ball. By full time it wasn't close. North Melbourne 130, Richmond 55, a 75-point beating.

The gap wasn't one big moment. It built steadily, quarter after quarter. North Melbourne led 33-13 at the first change, 63-24 at half time, 92-36 at three-quarter time, then added another 38 points in the last term to Richmond's 19. Work out the margins and they sit at 20, 19, 17 and 19 points across the four quarters. That's about as even a spread as a 75-point win can produce. There was no burst, no third-quarter avalanche. North Melbourne were just better, consistently, from the opening bounce.

The disposal count tells you why. North Melbourne finished with 407 disposals to Richmond's 280, a gap of 127 touches of the footy. That's not a team riding a few hot patches, that's a team that had the ball for most of the afternoon. It wasn't only volume either. North Melbourne's disposal efficiency sat at 77.6% against Richmond's 73.6%, so when North Melbourne had it, they generally found a teammate. Richmond had less of it and did less with what they had.

Where the contrast really shows is inside forward 50. North Melbourne racked up 19 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 11, off a near-identical number of entries, 52 to 49.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 33 | 30 | 29 | 38 | 130 |
| Richmond | 13 | 11 | 12 | 19 | 55 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **407** | Disposals | 280 |
| **120** | Contested poss. | 99 |
| **38** | Clearances | 30 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| **113** | Marks | 82 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 49 | Tackles | **50** |
| 31 | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **56** | Intercepts | 51 |
| **77.6%** | Disposal eff. | 73.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 75 points. The game's 185 points came in 61 points higher than the predicted 124. North Melbourne led 63–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 75. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $1.24 (edge -26.0%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +26.5 @ $1.90 (edge +22.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 4 · Predicted total: 124

### H2H History (Last 5) — North Melbourne lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Richmond | 48 – 73 | North Melbourne | North Melbourne 65% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | North Melbourne | 135 – 87 | Richmond | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Richmond | 74 – 78 | North Melbourne | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | North Melbourne | 90 – 77 | Richmond | not priced |
| 2023 | R23 | Richmond | 101 – 72 | North Melbourne | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 38 | 33 · 55 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 93/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.6/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.2/g | 7.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.2% | 68.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 15 | 4 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 2.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 148/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.2/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.7% | 67% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 6 | 4 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 138/g |
| Inside 50s | 7.6/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.5% | 78.8% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.9/g (lg 3.78) +30% · Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.49) +24% · Midfielders 2.86/g (lg 2.5) +14%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Key Forwards 5.22/g (lg 3.78) +38% · Rucks 0.65/g (lg 0.49) +33% · Defenders 1.53/g (lg 1.17) +31%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 15 in 5g | 32/10g (3·1·5·5·3·4·6·2·2·1) | 15/6g | 136/62g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 72' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 10 in 5g | 19/8g (3·3·3·3·0·2·3·2) | 3/1g | 11/4g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 7 in 5g | 17/10g (0·2·0·5·3·1·2·1·2·1) | 9/4g | 53/38g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 25' 30' 91' 95' 96' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 7 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·3·0) | 0/2g | 10/14g | 40% | — | 🏉 5' 85' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 6 in 5g | 12/10g (0·3·2·0·1·2·2·1·1·0) | 16/6g | 99/66g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 3 in 4g | 11/10g (1·1·1·3·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 33/17g | 63/43g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 33/82g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Lachy Dovaston | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 15/45g | 28% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/25g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/21g | 30% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/25g | 18% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 11/33g | 40% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 23/59g | 32% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 11/103g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 10/17g | 36/44g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/46g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 30/101g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Callum Coleman-Jones | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/15g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/11g | 26% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/19g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/25g | 12% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 6 in 5g | 10/10g (0·0·2·2·0·2·1·0·2·1) | 2/1g | 1/2g | 65% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Liam Fawcett | KF | 5 in 2g | 6/3g (1·2·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 5 in 4g | 12/10g (2·0·1·2·2·0·1·0·0·4) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·0·3·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/4g | 43% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 4 in 5g | 11/10g (2·0·0·3·2·0·3·0·0·1) | 7/3g | 7/5g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 61' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (3·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 2/8g | 10/17g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 10/26g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 5/9g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/25g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 2/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 5/33g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/13g | 10% | — | 🏉 91' 74' |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/22g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 7/15g | 28% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Samson Ryan | RUC | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 33.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 39 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 26 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 26 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 25.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 26 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 32 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 23.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 24 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens | 20.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 21 ✗ |
| George Wardlaw ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 25 ✗ |
| Luke McDonald | 17.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 25 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 78% | 10 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 71% | 26 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 20.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 22 ✗ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 26 ✗ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 0 ✓ |
| Tyler Sonsie ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 71% | 10 ✓ |
| Sam Lalor ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.96 | 90% | 22 ✗ |
| Sam Grlj ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r6-north-melbourne-v-richmond
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-04-19 06:24 UTC (latest tip update)