Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
46%
Brisbane Lions
54%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 46%. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage, but Brisbane Lions counter with Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Recent form favours Melbourne with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 1.1 points with a combined total of 142.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.32
Lost ✗
Edge
-21.6%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +22.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.6%
Margin Band
Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 187.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W W L L | 93.3 |
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 75.4 |
Avg Conceded
82.3
Melbourne
76.9
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
26.0
Melbourne
5.0
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
354.8
Melbourne
367.6
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
49.5
Melbourne
48.4
Brisbane Lions
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1501 vs 1500), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.32).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 142 · Line: +1.1
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