# Hawthorn v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 89 – 86 Port Adelaide

_Hawthorn fight back to topple Port Adelaide._

Half time: 47 – 56 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 41% / Port Adelaide 59% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 18 Apr, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Nick Watson (4' ×5 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Ginnivan (5' Tipped ⚡), Mitch Lewis (7' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Calsher Dear (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Will McCabe (77') · Port Adelaide: Ewan Mackinlay (11' ×2), Corey Durdin (13' Tipped ⚡), Zak Butters (21'), Jack Whitlock (38' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Georgiades (42' Tipped ⚡), Jason Horne-Francis (49' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ollie Wines (77'), Jase Burgoyne (73'), Lachie Jones (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 59% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.7 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 6, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Apr 2026, 08:49 pm · Last updated: 18 Apr 2026, 11:56 pm_

Hawthorn 89–86 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 6 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hawthorn winning by 10.7 points. They won by 3. Close enough to call it a reasonable read, but the path there had nothing to do with what the model expected.

The bigger miss was the total. Combined score of 175 sat 34 points above the projected 142, which tells you this was a game that refused to settle into anything predictable. It started that way too. Hawthorn led 45–19 at quarter time, a scoreline that looked like the form book playing out exactly as rated, Hawthorn's inside 50 count and disposal edge translating straight to the scoreboard. Then Port Adelaide flipped it. By half time it was 56–47 their way, a 37-point swing in one quarter that had nothing to do with pre-match ratings and everything to do with Port Adelaide simply playing better footy for twenty minutes.

By three-quarter time it was locked at 72–72. Dead square, after a first half that had gone from one team dominating to the other doing exactly the same thing. That's the kind of game where the stat sheet stops being predictive and starts just being descriptive.

So what actually decided it. Hawthorn finished with 349 disposals to 325, and their contested possession count, 120 to 105, mattered more than the raw volume. Port Adelaide won the clearances, 35 to 31, which fits their pre-match form line of averaging more inside 50s than Hawthorn managed in that same form window (42.9 to Hawthorn's 54.8), except on the day it was Hawthorn who piled forward, 52 inside 50s to 45. Winning the clearance battle doesn't help much if the other side keeps winning the territory battle regardless.

Hawthorn's ruck division was the standout number on the sheet: 49 hit-outs to 35. That's not a marginal edge, that's a team getting first use of the ball at a rate Port Adelaide simply couldn't match, and it's a big part of why Hawthorn could out-tackle them 70 to 59 as well, pressuring a side that kept having to win the ball back.

Port Adelaide's defence carried a strength rating of 1080 against Hawthorn's 1007 coming in, the largest positional gap on the sheet. It didn't hold. Conceding 89 points against a form average of 88.6 points allowed isn't a shock in isolation, but doing it to a Hawthorn side rated weaker in defence and forwards suggests the ledger flipped somewhere Alphr's model didn't see coming, most likely in that engine room battle where hit-outs and tackle pressure did the damage that clearance count alone wouldn't show.

Port Adelaide came in on the better recent run, 3.0 wins from their last five against Hawthorn's 2.16, and a healthier average margin. None of that showed up in the only number that matters. Alphr's model went 3 from 4 on the market reads for this one, nailing the margin band and the total, missing the top-line winner. Fair result, wrong side, right story underneath it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 45 | 2 | 25 | 17 | 89 |
| Port Adelaide | 19 | 37 | 16 | 14 | 86 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **349** | Disposals | 325 |
| **120** | Contested poss. | 105 |
| 31 | Clearances | **35** |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **106** | Marks | 97 |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **70** | Tackles | 59 |
| **49** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| **60** | Intercepts | 59 |
| **74.8%** | Disposal eff. | 74.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 59% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable result. The predicted margin of 10.7 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 175 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 142. Hawthorn trailed 47–56 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 89–86. The model went 3/4 on this match. Port Adelaide covered the 40.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 183.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $6.70 (edge +44.1%) — model probability 59.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +40.5 @ $1.90 (edge +29.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 11 · Predicted total: 142

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 62 · 48 | 42 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 6.2/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.8/g | 19.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 12.6/g | 10.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 66.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 19 | 15 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 18/g | 25.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.4% | 67.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 0 | 7 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 17/g | 8.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.5% | 78.1% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.33/g (lg 1.17) +14% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.49) +10% · Key Forwards 3.8/g (lg 3.78) +1%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.48) -1% · Forwards 4.02/g (lg 4.42) -9% · Key Forwards 3.41/g (lg 3.78) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 11 in 5g | 17/10g (1·1·1·2·1·2·4·1·3·1) | 4/4g | 3/3g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 22' 30' 70' 71' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 7 in 5g | 12/10g (1·0·1·0·3·1·0·1·2·3) | 8/3g | 26/12g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 75' 79' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 6 in 5g | 11/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·1·3·0·2) | 5/7g | 20/19g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 6 in 5g | 12/10g (0·2·3·0·1·2·1·0·2·1) | 7/6g | 16/11g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 4/9g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 3 in 5g | 9/10g (1·0·3·1·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 12/13g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/7g | 9/15g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/4g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 3/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/7g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/17g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/11g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 2/30g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | no games | 11/10g (1·0·3·2·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/3g | 4/2g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 79' |
| – | Flynn Perez | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 11/26g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 10/31g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 8/63g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 14/23g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | William McCabe | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 77' |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 12 in 5g | 23/10g (1·3·2·1·4·3·2·3·2·2) | 10/7g | 19/11g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 9 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·2·2·1·2) | 2/2g | 20/23g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 8 in 5g | 14/10g (1·1·0·1·3·0·3·1·2·2) | 6/6g | 6/16g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' 56' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 7 in 5g | 11/9g (0·0·3·1·2·0·3·2·0) | 0/0g | 5/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 51' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 5/11g | 8/23g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 3/4g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 2/11g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 5/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/16g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 18% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 6% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 10/15g | 18% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/25g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/6g (1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | 🏉 11' 88' |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 8/29g | 16% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 9/5g | 20/15g | 58% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 24 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.93 | 72% | 14 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 75% | 23 ✗ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 73% | 17 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 84% | 15 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 20.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 20 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 14 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 82% | 14 ✓ |
| Josh Battle ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 19 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.80 | 74% | 35 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 69% | 19 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 28 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.74 | 75% | 18 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 16 ✓ |
| Willem Drew ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.83 | 72% | 5 ✓ |
| Aliir Aliir | 14.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-18 13:56 UTC (latest tip update)