Win Probability
AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 59% prediction for Port Adelaide, a notable result. The predicted margin of 10.7 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 175 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 142. Hawthorn trailed 47–56 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 89–86. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 183.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
41%
Port Adelaide
59%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 41%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Hawthorn carry a 35-point ELO rating advantage (1563 vs 1528). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 10.7 points with a combined total of 142.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @6.70
Lost ✗
Edge
+44.1%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide +40.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+29.8%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 183.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 103.4 |
Port Adelaide | W W W L L | 104.4 |
Avg Conceded
71.4
Hawthorn
88.6
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
1.1
Hawthorn
14.0
Port Adelaide
Disposals
355.0
Hawthorn
334.1
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
54.8
Hawthorn
42.9
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 142 · Line: +10.7
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.