# Gold Coast SUNS v Essendon — AFL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 119 – 110 Essendon

_Gold Coast SUNS roar back to burn past Essendon._

Half time: 58 – 61 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 68% / Essendon 32% · People First Stadium · Sat, 18 Apr, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Christian Petracca (5' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Jed Walter (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben King (28' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ethan Read (37' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Touk Miller (84'), Jake Rogers (88'), Zeke Uwland (92'), Final quarter (30m 1s)Lachie Weller (64'), Lachie Weller (75') · Essendon: Archie May (9' ×2), Xavier Duursma (12' ×2), Isaac Kako (15' ×2), Jade Gresham (35'), Peter Wright (51'), Tom Edwards (52' ×2), Zach Merrett (60'), Andrew McGrath (77'), Sullivan Robey (83' ×2), Jye Caldwell (86'), Nate Caddy (67' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 68% | Won |
| Essendon | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 18.7 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Apr 2026, 08:49 pm · Last updated: 18 Apr 2026, 11:56 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 119–110 Essendon in AFL Round 6 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast SUNS beat Essendon 119–110 at People First Stadium. Job done, nine points in it. But look at the split and the ledger tells a rougher story: Essendon were up 61–58 at half-time. This wasn't a lead Gold Coast built and defended, it was one they had to go and take.

The turning point sits in the third term. Gold Coast went from three points down at the break to twelve points up at three-quarter time, 101–89. That's a 43-point quarter against an Essendon defence that had been holding up fine until then. Essendon steadied to outscore them 21–18 in the last, but by then the ledger was too far gone.

The ruck battle explains a lot of it. Essendon went into this rated higher in that department, 1032 to 988, yet Gold Coast won hit-outs 44 to 18. That's not a close contest, that's a landslide the other way from what the numbers pointed to pre-game. Strangely, none of that translated to clearances, where Essendon actually won 37 to 29 despite getting beaten up at the taps. Contested footy was messier than the hit-out count suggests.

Where Gold Coast made it count was going forward. Sixty inside 50s to 55, and when the ball got there they were sharper, 17 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 11. Essendon actually won the overall marking count 98 to 86, so this was about precision in the right patch of ground, not general ball use. Intercepts told a similar tale, Gold Coast reading the play for 73 turnovers against Essendon's 60, backing up a defence rated well clear of Essendon's coming in, 1055 to 1005.

Essendon's response was to bring the effort. Seventy-two tackles to 51 is a serious pressure count, and it says the loss wasn't for lack of trying. It just didn't stop the ball going the other way often enough, or Gold Coast cashing in when it got forward.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 33 | 25 | 43 | 18 | 119 |
| Essendon | 25 | 36 | 28 | 21 | 110 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **381** | Disposals | 365 |
| **133** | Contested poss. | 127 |
| 29 | Clearances | **37** |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| 86 | Marks | **98** |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 51 | Tackles | **72** |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 18 |
| **73** | Intercepts | 60 |
| 74.0% | Disposal eff. | **74.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 68% probability. The predicted margin of 18.7 was reasonable against the actual 9-point result. The game's 229 points came in 96 points higher than the predicted 133. Gold Coast SUNS trailed 58–61 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 119–110. The model went 3/4 on this match. Essendon covered the 41.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.11 (edge -22.6%) — model probability 67.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +41.5 @ $1.90 (edge +22.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 190.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 19 · Predicted total: 133

### H2H History (Last 5) — Gold Coast SUNS lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 153 – 58 | Essendon |
| 2025 | R17 | Essendon | 74 – 115 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R22 | Essendon | 86 – 87 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R12 | Gold Coast SUNS | 91 – 80 | Essendon |
| 2023 | R2 | Essendon | 108 – 80 | Gold Coast SUNS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 64 · 34 | 31 · 50 |
| Goal Assists | 7.4/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 66/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.8/g | 11.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.6/g | 6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.8% | 64.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 16 | 23 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 19.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71% | 76.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 4 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 158/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.8/g | 13.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.2% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.14/g (lg 4.39) +17% · Defenders 1.35/g (lg 1.17) +15% · Key Forwards 4.12/g (lg 3.78) +9%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Midfielders 2.55/g (lg 2.5) +2% · Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.17) +2% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.39) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 21 in 5g | 35/10g (2·3·7·0·2·4·5·7·3·2) | 26/8g | 120/50g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 48' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 7 in 5g | 15/10g (2·3·1·2·0·2·1·1·0·3) | 7/10g | 28/27g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 31' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 7 in 3g | 12/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·3·4·0) | 10/7g | 12/10g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 56' 91' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 7 in 5g | 11/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·4·3·0) | 4/2g | 11/11g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 68' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 4 in 2g | 15/10g (1·0·3·3·0·1·3·0·4·0) | 5/4g | 27/25g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 4 in 2g | 12/10g (1·2·1·0·2·1·0·1·2·2) | 3/3g | 14/10g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 94' |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 4 in 5g | 5/9g (1·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/4g | 33% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/14g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/13g | 29/92g | 40% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 5/11g | 55% | — | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 29% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 4/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 8/56g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 14/19g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 13/75g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/20g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/53g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 14/50g | 10% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 1/26g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 21/42g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/57g | 0% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 8 in 4g | 14/10g (0·0·1·3·1·1·1·4·1·2) | 6/2g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 5 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·1) | 9/12g | 6/6g | 50% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 5 in 5g | 9/10g (0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 4/5g | 47/36g | 70% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Archer May | KF | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (2·3·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·2) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.54 AI 67% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 4 in 4g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·0·2) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 62% | — | 🏉 15' 76' |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 50% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 2/4g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Thomas Edwards | FWD | 4 in 2g | 7/4g (3·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 1/5g | 44% | — | 🏉 12' 63' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/14g | 0/14g | 36% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 1 in 3g | 2/8g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/9g | 9/10g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/10g | 4% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 5/12g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 83' 74' |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 35 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 26 ✓ |
| John Noble | 24.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 25 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 24 ✗ |
| Wil Powell | 19.5 | $1.86 | 62% | 19 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 18.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Will Graham ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 10 ✓ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.90 | 75% | 33 ✗ |
| Zach Merrett ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 34 ✗ |
| Darcy Parish ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 30 ✗ |
| Elijah Tsatas ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 95% | 25 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell | 21.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Jordan Ridley ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 11 ✓ |
| Jacob Farrow ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-18 13:56 UTC (latest tip update)