Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 68% probability. The predicted margin of 18.7 was reasonable against the actual 9-point result. The game's 229 points came in 96 points higher than the predicted 133. Gold Coast SUNS trailed 58–61 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 119–110. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
68%
Essendon
32%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Recent form favours Essendon with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 18.7 points with a combined total of 133.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.11
Winner ✓
Edge
-22.6%
Line / Spread
Essendon +41.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+22.8%
Margin Band
Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 190.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | W W L L L | 76.2 |
Essendon | W W W L L | 108.6 |
Avg Conceded
93.9
Gold Coast SUNS
82.1
Essendon
Avg Margin
29.9
Gold Coast SUNS
3.9
Essendon
Disposals
351.9
Gold Coast SUNS
352.3
Essendon
Inside 50s
56.2
Gold Coast SUNS
46.9
Essendon
ELO–Market Disagreement
Essendon hold the ELO advantage (1524 vs 1521), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.11).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 19 points
Predicted total: 133 · Line: +18.7
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.